Storms in July

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How many named storms will form in July?

Poll ended at Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:52 pm

1
21
33%
2
27
42%
3
9
14%
4
3
5%
5
1
2%
6 or more
0
No votes
Nothing will develop
3
5%
 
Total votes: 64
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sky1989
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#21 Postby sky1989 » Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:24 pm

This is my first post since I am new here at Storm2k. I have been lurking for a while and really enjoy this site.

Although conditions in the Atlantic are not favorable at the moment, I have a feeling we are about to experience a pattern change that will be much more favorable. I think 4 named storms are possible this month.
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Re: Storms in July

#22 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:43 pm

Welcome to Storm2k! :D

I think the season should start getting pretty active soon!
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#23 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:33 pm

1 storm, a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Won't speculate on where it would go.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:50 pm

Image
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Re: Storms in July

#25 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:21 pm

Image

1995-2010 July stats
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Re: Storms in July

#26 Postby Stephanie » Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:55 pm

Went with two also. Gut feeling around the second half of the month.
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Re: Storms in July

#27 Postby Stephanie » Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:57 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

1995-2010 July stats


2004 and 2005 were awful years for hurricanes as we all know but there's no consistency in the stats for the month of July. Strange, but the stat for 2005 should've been our wake up call.
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Re: Storms in July

#28 Postby Cainer » Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

1995-2010 July stats


Interesting stats... Doesn't look like July activity has much of a correlation to overall activity; look at 1997, 4 July storms but only 8 named storms total, and then 2010, only 1 July storm but 19 named storms!

Anyway, I voted for 3. I think the second half of July could get pretty active.
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#29 Postby Javlin » Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:19 pm

I am one;still quite abit shear in the Carib along w/ULL's
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#30 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jul 03, 2011 10:50 pm

I vote for 1, I think August will see the flip of the switch.
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Re: Storms in July

#31 Postby jinftl » Mon Jul 04, 2011 11:20 am

Per the graphics below from the NHC, for the period 1851-2009, the following # of storms have formed in the Atlantic in July:

July 1 - July 10: 30
July 11-July 20: 31
July 21-July 31: 50

July is typically a slow month...at least until the end of the month. Thinks really start to ramp up in late July and especially early August, from August 1 - August 10, 76 storms have formed during the same period. From August 11 - August 20, 115 storms have formed!!!


Image

Image

Image

images from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
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Re: Storms in July

#32 Postby RachelAnna » Mon Jul 04, 2011 4:54 pm

I'm going with one toward the end of the month of July. I agree with the others who have said August is when the flip will switch. Of course, with so much of the Gulf coast being in a drought, it would be nice if we could get some tropical moisture, but I just don't see it happening all that soon.
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Re: Storms in July

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:12 pm

Since the poll is now closed,I can say that crow is with me :roll: as I voted for three,but it looks like that number will not come to fructition.
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Re: Storms in July

#34 Postby Macrocane » Fri Jul 08, 2011 7:37 pm

I voted one but it was a hard decision to make :wink: because I think that two is a very good possibility as well, looking at the models I think that something may form between July 15 and July 20 near Central America.
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Re: Storms in July

#35 Postby sky1989 » Fri Jul 08, 2011 11:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Since the poll is now closed,I can say that crow is with me :roll: as I voted for three,but it looks like that number will not come to fructition.


It appears that I will have a lot of crow myself as I voted for 4. As hostile as the Atlantic appears right now with the positive MJO and the probability of the MJO moving out of the Atlantic by the end of the month, makes those numbers extremely unlikely.
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Re: Storms in July

#36 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 26, 2011 5:56 pm

drezee wrote:I voted three. One in the first ten days and 2 in the last 15...


Three is looking golden...
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Re: Storms in July

#37 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:37 am

I am not sure that 3 is a given.
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Re: Storms in July

#38 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 27, 2011 1:42 am

dwsqos2 wrote:I am not sure that 3 is a given.


lol, give it up already.

I busted with 2...
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#39 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:36 pm

Yep and now 3 is confirmed and if the models are to be believed, not impossible we even get a stab at a 4th....

very active July in the end, we are now ahead of alot of busy seasons.
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Re:

#40 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:06 pm

KWT wrote:Yep and now 3 is confirmed and if the models are to be believed, not impossible we even get a stab at a 4th....

very active July in the end, we are now ahead of alot of busy seasons.


That is the real worry!
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