ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2011/arlene_landfall_sat.jpg

Arlene at landfall (WU)

Is that an eye? Maybe it was a hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

Is that an eye? Maybe it was a hurricane?

I'm wondering the same, not sure

[CrazyC83]

Is that an eye? Maybe it was a hurricane?

I'm wondering the same, not sure

There is no conclusive data to suggest such though, unless the Recon data yesterday afternoon with the 66 kt SFMR (probably a bit high but there were others near it) were representative. I would go with 60 kt as the peak and landfall intensity with a 991mb pressure (since Cabo Rojo was just north of the center).

[HURAKAN]

The Altamira Radar is back!!

[HURAKAN]

Is that an eye? Maybe it was a hurricane?

I'm wondering the same, not sure

There is no conclusive data to suggest such though, unless the Recon data yesterday afternoon with the 66 kt SFMR (probably a bit high but there were others near it) were representative. I would go with 60 kt as the peak and landfall intensity with a 991mb pressure (since Cabo Rojo was just north of the center).

I agree with those numbers, 60 knots / 991 mb

[Sanibel]

It's almost certain from that huge sweeping inflow all the way south into the Pacific that Mexico just missed getting a good hurricane with a few hundred more miles of water. We got a June storm after all and the Atlantic looks open for business now in 2011. Arlene was just getting its structure together.

[Nimbus]

Some of those rain bands look pretty intense on radar but as they expand north they will probably bring less than half an hours rain north of Corpus.

It was a a fairly rapid developing storm for June and even though the tracking was about as exciting as taking the trash out, it did almost become our first hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Is that an eye? Maybe it was a hurricane?

I'm wondering the same, not sure

There is no conclusive data to suggest such though, unless the Recon data yesterday afternoon with the 66 kt SFMR (probably a bit high but there were others near it) were representative. I would go with 60 kt as the peak and landfall intensity with a 991mb pressure (since Cabo Rojo was just north of the center).

A small chance of a postseason upgrade?

[HURAKAN]

microwave image post landfall

[wxman57]

Is that an eye? Maybe it was a hurricane?

I'm wondering the same, not sure

That's a shadow cast by the tall thunderstorm to the east. Absolutely no data to indicate Arlene was a hurricane.

[Macrocane]

Yeah I don't think it was a hurricane although it could have been a 60 kt tropical storm at landfall, remember that sometimes the systems intensify a little just after landfall like 2008 Fay or 2010 Richard.

[drezee]

Brownsville is happy! 2 inches of rain in the last 4 hours...

[cycloneye]

youtube video of flooding in Mexico

[drezee]

Latest Ob was over 1 inch of rain in the last hour alone in Brownsville...it needs to go further N!

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBRO.html

[Frank2]

Seems like it was a strong TS at landfall with heavy rain (glad yesterday's TS guess was correct, though understandable why some thought it'd become a hurricane)...

Frank

[South Texas Storms]

Latest Ob was over 1 inch of rain in the last hour alone in Brownsville...it needs to go further N!

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBRO.html

Yeah about 200 miles more north to give Portastorm and me some much needed tropical downpours! I doubt it will make it this far north though.

[drezee]

6 more hours of this and Brownsville will no longer be in a drought

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OLMITO...HARLINGEN VALLEY AIRPORT...
SAN BENITO...LA FERIA...HARLINGEN...BROWNSVILLE

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM A GROUP OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
ADVISED AREA. MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

[South Texas Storms]

Well at least some parts of Texas are getting drought relief. I guess the rest of us will just have to keep waiting our turn.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
100 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...ARLENE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 98.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PESCA MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...
80 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF CABO ROJO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

SSM/IS DATA BACK FROM THE TIME OF LANDFALL SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE ABOUT 35 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS CONFIRMS THAT ARLENE HAD ISSUES WITH ITS VERTICAL
ALIGNMENT AS WELL AS HAVING AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
SINCE LANDFALL...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED
IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
MEXICO...AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA BACK AT
15Z AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL
PRESENT OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 255/6. ARLENE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

ARLENE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
IN 24-36 HR...AND IT MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR A NEW
SYSTEM REMAINS SPECULATIVE. EITHER WAY... SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 21.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 01/0600Z 21.1N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1800Z 20.6N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN