ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[brunota2003]

Also of note:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED 29 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS FOR 29/1800Z (WHICH HAS
NOW SLIPPED TO 29/2100Z) AND 30/1200Z
ON TS ARLENE MAY STILL BOTH FLY.

So next mission after this one, seems got pushed back by 3 hours...which means the first fix should be at 5 pm EDT, instead of 2 pm EDT.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291555
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 41 20110629
154600 2102N 09529W 9700 00274 0007 +240 //// 155005 007 002 000 05
154630 2103N 09528W 9705 00270 0008 +240 //// 141006 007 003 001 05
154700 2104N 09527W 9697 00279 0010 +240 //// 126006 008 004 000 05
154730 2106N 09526W 9705 00272 0011 +239 //// 111007 008 009 001 01
154800 2107N 09524W 9701 00277 0012 +236 //// 095007 008 015 002 01
154830 2108N 09523W 9698 00280 0013 +235 //// 104006 007 011 003 01
154900 2109N 09522W 9698 00281 0014 +235 //// 102008 008 007 004 05
154930 2110N 09521W 9700 00281 0016 +229 //// 106011 013 024 006 01
155000 2111N 09520W 9692 00288 0016 +227 //// 100019 021 029 006 01
155030 2112N 09519W 9703 00279 0018 +217 //// 105024 025 031 006 01
155100 2113N 09518W 9699 00283 0018 +221 //// 105022 022 029 004 01
155130 2114N 09517W 9704 00279 0018 +230 +223 102024 024 026 003 00
155200 2116N 09516W 9699 00284 0019 +229 +220 097023 024 024 003 00
155230 2117N 09515W 9699 00285 0021 +222 +220 098025 025 024 002 03
155300 2118N 09515W 9698 00288 0021 +224 +222 100027 028 023 002 03
155330 2120N 09514W 9700 00285 0021 +227 +218 100026 027 022 003 00
155400 2121N 09514W 9702 00284 0022 +225 +214 099027 027 021 004 03
155430 2123N 09513W 9699 00286 0023 +222 +215 097026 027 022 005 00
155500 2124N 09513W 9700 00285 0023 +228 +216 098025 026 020 002 03
155530 2126N 09513W 9703 00284 0023 +230 +218 098026 026 020 001 00
$$
;

[ozonepete]

Hey wxman57, you think it'll make hurricane? Looks increasingly likely.

[stormreader]

Another point about the ridge intensifying to the north, thus keeping Arlene headed well south of the border and south of drought stricken Texas. It also may very well mean that the hurricane watch is very much justified. A strengthening high just to the north of a tropical system usually means a strengthening storm. So that Arlene might not be all that impressive now, but we could very well see a smaller more compact storm (even a minimal hurricane) bringing those much needed rains to a small area well south of the border.

[GCANE]

Core is heating fast and got a good flare over the center.

WISHE working over time.

Too bad CIMSS is down - would tell me if she was tracking into the anti-cyclone.

Only thing holding her back is a boundary-layer inversion; but, is not directly under the center of the warm-core.

[Dave]

I've got it again Brunota

000
URNT15 KNHC 291605
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 42 20110629
155600 2127N 09512W 9726 00263 0023 +230 +219 099024 025 019 000 03
155630 2128N 09511W 9720 00270 0024 +231 +219 099022 023 015 003 03
155700 2129N 09510W 9717 00274 0025 +231 +223 101021 022 020 003 00
155730 2129N 09509W 9717 00273 0025 +232 +225 102020 021 019 002 00
155800 2130N 09507W 9726 00266 0026 +234 +229 103021 021 018 002 00
155830 2131N 09506W 9718 00275 0027 +234 +230 105020 022 017 002 00
155900 2131N 09505W 9718 00275 0027 +235 +232 105022 024 020 000 03
155930 2132N 09504W 9719 00274 0026 +235 +233 109023 024 019 000 00
160000 2133N 09502W 9721 00271 0027 +236 +236 110024 025 019 002 00
160030 2134N 09501W 9723 00270 0027 +236 +234 108024 025 019 002 00
160100 2135N 09500W 9717 00277 0028 +236 +235 110023 023 019 001 00
160130 2136N 09459W 9701 00292 0029 +235 //// 109022 023 017 002 05
160200 2137N 09458W 9708 00285 0029 +236 //// 112021 022 019 002 01
160230 2138N 09457W 9709 00284 0030 +235 +234 111021 021 018 002 00
160300 2139N 09456W 9703 00291 0030 +235 //// 117021 022 015 002 01
160330 2141N 09455W 9707 00286 0030 +235 +235 117021 021 013 001 00
160400 2142N 09453W 9704 00290 0030 +236 +235 117020 022 013 002 00
160430 2143N 09452W 9704 00290 0030 +235 //// 117021 021 014 001 01
160500 2144N 09451W 9708 00287 0030 +236 //// 114022 023 014 002 01
160530 2145N 09450W 9711 00285 0031 +238 +237 115023 024 021 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 291605
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/15:44:00Z
B. 21 deg 03 min N
095 deg 36 min W
C. NA
D. 47 kt
E. 231 deg 54 nm
F. 262 deg 47 kt
G. 231 deg 54 nm
H. 1000 mb
I. 20 C / 360 m
J. 24 C / 364 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF308 0201A ARLENE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 15:15:30Z
DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 20NM
;

[brunota2003]

CIMSS finally updated...I believe Arlene will make a run at RI. Don't have any time to stare and write things out, believe the run will start in about 4 to 6 hours. Land and time are major downers to a run at RI, but I think she'll try to reach 70 or 75 knots before landfall.

The next recon flight makes their first fix at 5 pm EDT, roughly...right about the time things might really kick off. Let's hope I'm wrong!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

Thanks! I gotta run

[Dave]

Thanks! I gotta run

Thanks for the break!

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291615
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 43 20110629
160600 2146N 09449W 9703 00293 0031 +238 +237 114023 023 020 001 00
160630 2147N 09448W 9707 00290 0032 +240 //// 115024 024 022 000 01
160700 2148N 09447W 9710 00288 0033 +239 +234 115024 025 020 002 00
160730 2149N 09445W 9708 00290 0033 +239 //// 111023 024 021 000 05
160800 2150N 09444W 9707 00292 0034 +238 //// 113023 024 022 002 01
160830 2151N 09443W 9703 00295 0035 +236 //// 111023 023 023 001 01
160900 2152N 09442W 9712 00288 0035 +235 //// 112023 023 023 002 05
160930 2153N 09441W 9704 00296 0036 +236 //// 113025 027 024 001 05
161000 2154N 09440W 9705 00295 0036 +236 //// 112024 025 024 002 01
161030 2155N 09439W 9705 00295 0037 +235 //// 109025 025 024 001 01
161100 2156N 09438W 9709 00290 0037 +235 //// 109025 025 025 001 05
161130 2157N 09437W 9704 00297 0038 +235 //// 111025 026 024 001 01
161200 2158N 09435W 9709 00292 0038 +235 //// 108026 028 024 001 01
161230 2159N 09434W 9707 00294 0038 +235 //// 107027 028 025 001 05
161300 2200N 09433W 9704 00297 0039 +235 //// 107028 029 026 000 05
161330 2201N 09432W 9707 00295 0040 +235 //// 106027 028 025 002 05
161400 2202N 09431W 9706 00298 0041 +235 //// 107027 028 024 002 05
161430 2203N 09430W 9705 00300 0042 +235 //// 108027 028 025 001 01
161500 2204N 09429W 9707 00298 0042 +235 //// 106029 029 027 001 01
161530 2205N 09428W 9708 00297 0043 +235 +233 109028 029 027 002 00
$$
;

[Frank2]

Good photo of it's circular rain bands to the east of the center:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291625
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 44 20110629
161600 2206N 09427W 9706 00300 0043 +232 //// 107030 031 030 000 01
161630 2207N 09426W 9704 00301 0043 +234 +232 107031 032 031 001 03
161700 2208N 09425W 9706 00300 0044 +235 +233 106032 033 030 001 00
161730 2209N 09423W 9704 00302 0045 +233 //// 102031 032 029 002 05
161800 2210N 09422W 9703 00306 0046 +230 //// 101030 033 031 003 05
161830 2211N 09421W 9713 00295 0046 +230 //// 102033 033 033 002 05
161900 2212N 09420W 9701 00306 0048 +231 +230 105033 034 032 001 00
161930 2213N 09419W 9704 00305 0048 +230 //// 105034 034 030 003 01
162000 2214N 09418W 9708 00302 0049 +230 +229 105034 034 029 001 00
162030 2215N 09417W 9707 00304 0050 +230 +229 103032 033 028 001 03
162100 2216N 09416W 9702 00309 0051 +230 +227 106031 032 029 001 03
162130 2217N 09415W 9705 00306 0052 +230 +225 107033 035 028 002 03
162200 2218N 09414W 9708 00305 0052 +231 +229 107035 036 029 002 03
162230 2219N 09413W 9707 00307 0053 +230 +230 103034 035 028 001 00
162300 2220N 09412W 9706 00308 0054 +230 +227 106033 035 029 002 03
162330 2221N 09411W 9705 00310 0055 +230 //// 108035 035 029 000 05
162400 2222N 09410W 9704 00314 0060 +229 +227 105035 036 /// /// 03
162430 2224N 09409W 9709 00312 0061 +229 +229 105035 036 024 003 03
162500 2226N 09409W 9705 00315 0062 +230 //// 105036 037 024 002 01
162530 2228N 09409W 9705 00316 0063 +230 //// 109035 036 027 002 05
$$
;

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

This helped me:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WISHE

The wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) is a positive feedback mechanism between the ocean and atmosphere in which a stronger ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux results in a stronger atmospheric circulation, which results in a strong heat flux.[1] It has been hypothesized that this is the mechanism that low pressure areas in the tropics develop into tropical cyclones.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 291627
97779 16234 41223 94200 03600 11034 23229 /0005
41030
RMK AF308 0201A ARLENE OB 13
SWS = 29 KTS
NE EXIT POINT
;

[stormreader]

And you can see those greens building up very near the center on this Funktop loop. I recall some of the models showing a WSW move before landfall. I think that is possible, with the high to the north, and the obvious pulsing going on at the lat of the center of further south. Do think that its becoming more likely that we might see a minimal hurricane at landfall---thus the hurricane watch put up by the Mexican govt.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html

[Dave]

[MGC]

Arlene looks much better organized this morning than yesterday afternoon when it was named. Looks like a TC with convection banding. UL winds have really died off and this along with warm waters the storm is currently moving over should allow Arlene to make a run a hurricane intensity. The storm has about 10 hours left over water at its current rate of forward speed.......MGC

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291635
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 45 20110629
162600 2229N 09409W 9709 00316 0065 +230 //// 109035 037 025 002 05
162630 2231N 09409W 9707 00317 0065 +229 +229 111036 038 027 002 03
162700 2233N 09408W 9702 00323 0066 +228 //// 110036 037 028 001 05
162730 2235N 09408W 9720 00308 0068 +229 //// 110037 039 028 001 05
162800 2236N 09408W 9723 00306 0069 +230 +229 109037 039 029 002 03
162830 2238N 09408W 9721 00310 0070 +227 //// 109037 038 029 001 05
162900 2240N 09408W 9724 00307 0071 +228 //// 108037 039 032 003 01
162930 2242N 09408W 9720 00313 0073 +225 //// 106037 038 033 002 05
163000 2244N 09407W 9726 00308 0074 +226 //// 107037 037 031 001 05
163030 2245N 09407W 9725 00309 0074 +226 //// 107038 038 032 005 05
163100 2247N 09407W 9725 00308 0076 +223 //// 106038 038 034 006 05
163130 2249N 09407W 9739 00298 0077 +225 //// 102037 038 031 003 01
163200 2251N 09407W 9738 00301 0077 +225 +217 100036 037 030 003 03
163230 2252N 09406W 9739 00298 0077 +226 +223 101036 036 030 005 03
163300 2254N 09406W 9746 00292 0078 +227 +214 102036 037 033 002 03
163330 2256N 09406W 9744 00293 0078 +229 +215 102037 037 033 006 03
163400 2258N 09406W 9747 00293 0078 +230 +213 102037 039 030 004 00
163430 2259N 09406W 9738 00301 0079 +229 +217 100036 037 031 005 03
163500 2301N 09406W 9743 00297 0080 +229 +221 101036 037 029 001 03
163530 2303N 09405W 9741 00301 0081 +227 +224 099036 036 027 001 00
$$
;

Mission Over...