ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[x-y-no]

Yeah, I saw that but is fairly consistent, I don't know why it was flagged.

03 just applies to SMRF doesn't it??

That's correct.

[NDG]

Here we go, working now.

URNT15 KNHC 291155
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 17 20110629
114600 2255N 09353W 9697 00326 0065 +223 +189 099040 041 /// /// 03
114630 2254N 09354W 9724 00300 0065 +220 +188 100037 037 026 009 03
114700 2253N 09356W 9715 00308 0065 +219 +193 104033 034 031 008 00
114730 2252N 09357W 9723 00300 0067 +197 +189 105030 031 035 011 03
114800 2250N 09358W 9712 00311 0065 +217 +184 109029 029 028 005 00
114830 2249N 09400W 9720 00302 0063 +225 +181 111030 030 026 005 00
114900 2248N 09401W 9719 00302 0063 +221 +180 111030 030 028 007 00
114930 2247N 09402W 9719 00304 0063 +221 +184 109030 031 028 007 00
115000 2246N 09403W 9716 00307 0062 +219 +184 104031 031 030 007 03
115030 2245N 09405W 9716 00303 0061 +220 +184 103031 031 031 006 00
115100 2243N 09406W 9717 00303 0061 +214 +183 096032 032 032 006 00
115130 2242N 09407W 9718 00300 0059 +217 +186 100032 032 033 008 00
115200 2241N 09409W 9717 00301 0058 +221 +184 101033 034 033 009 00
115230 2240N 09410W 9715 00301 0056 +226 +188 103033 033 033 009 00
115300 2239N 09411W 9715 00301 0055 +228 +183 104033 034 035 009 00
115330 2237N 09413W 9717 00297 0055 +225 +187 102034 035 035 009 00
115400 2236N 09414W 9717 00297 0054 +224 +184 100035 035 033 009 00
115430 2235N 09415W 9717 00297 0053 +222 +189 097035 036 033 008 00
115500 2234N 09417W 9720 00292 0052 +223 +186 098035 036 033 010 00
115530 2233N 09418W 9721 00291 0051 +221 +189 095034 034 035 008 00
$$
;

[Dave]

Good morning...

[AHS2011]

What would you say the chances of Arlene becoming a hurricane is?

[wxman57]

Recon has SFMR winds to 35 kts, but it just passed the buoy 80 miles east of Alrene's estimated center and the buoy is reporting only 20 kts. I just don't trust those SFMR readings. They were much higher than the buoy was reporting yesterday as the plane passed overhead, too. I'm not sure that Arlene had TS winds last night. It does look like it's organizing now.

[Dave]

GE's catching up also...

[NDG]

By the way the recon is located and direction that is moving I doubt the center of Arlene ever reached 95W yet.

[NDG]

Looks like Arlene's core is not fully developed yet.

000
URNT15 KNHC 291205
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 18 20110629
115600 2231N 09419W 9718 00294 0051 +221 +188 094034 035 034 008 00
115630 2230N 09421W 9718 00293 0051 +219 +186 091034 035 035 006 00
115700 2229N 09422W 9718 00293 0049 +223 +187 092035 035 034 006 00
115730 2228N 09423W 9715 00295 0048 +225 +192 090035 036 034 008 00
115800 2226N 09425W 9716 00293 0048 +224 +192 090035 036 034 006 00
115830 2225N 09426W 9715 00291 0048 +206 +197 091035 036 039 013 00
115900 2224N 09427W 9720 00288 0048 +197 +194 090034 034 042 016 00
115930 2223N 09429W 9693 00310 0047 +198 +192 086034 035 038 014 00
120000 2221N 09430W 9706 00297 0046 +211 +187 081033 035 032 008 03
120030 2220N 09431W 9700 00304 0044 +222 +193 088033 034 032 008 00
120100 2219N 09432W 9702 00303 0047 +208 +186 100033 034 033 008 03
120130 2217N 09433W 9703 00300 0046 +197 +193 109031 033 038 010 03
120200 2216N 09433W 9696 00306 0044 +216 +189 110028 029 027 007 00
120230 2214N 09434W 9703 00300 0043 +220 +186 113027 028 028 005 00
120300 2213N 09434W 9698 00305 0042 +221 +189 112028 028 027 004 00
120330 2211N 09435W 9703 00300 0041 +224 +190 113026 027 025 002 00
120400 2210N 09436W 9701 00299 0041 +225 +192 113026 027 027 002 00
120430 2208N 09436W 9700 00302 0040 +225 +196 109025 026 024 002 00
120500 2207N 09437W 9700 00300 0040 +225 +201 107024 024 021 003 00
120530 2206N 09437W 9699 00302 0039 +225 +199 103024 024 020 004 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[NDG]

Recon has SFMR winds to 35 kts, but it just passed the buoy 80 miles east of Alrene's estimated center and the buoy is reporting only 20 kts. I just don't trust those SFMR readings. They were much higher than the buoy was reporting yesterday as the plane passed overhead, too. I'm not sure that Arlene had TS winds last night. It does look like it's organizing now.

It didn't really passed right over the buoy, its track is 25 miles NW of the buoy, maybe the recon was passing some convection while where the buoy looks to be deep convection free.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLY
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN

[brunota2003]

Apparently CIMSS fell asleep at the wheel, they still aren't showing Arlene, so no ADT numbers, or other products.

[NDG]

Pressure looks to have lowered.

URNT15 KNHC 291215
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 19 20110629
120600 2204N 09438W 9742 00263 0039 +228 +202 098023 023 022 001 00
120630 2202N 09438W 9797 00211 0036 +231 +203 094022 023 022 004 00
120700 2201N 09439W 9776 00229 0035 +230 +211 092023 024 025 005 00
120730 2159N 09439W 9787 00216 0034 +229 +212 092024 024 026 006 00
120800 2158N 09440W 9786 00218 0034 +230 +210 090023 024 028 006 00
120830 2156N 09440W 9785 00219 0033 +233 +211 093023 023 026 005 03
120900 2155N 09441W 9783 00220 0032 +236 +215 094022 022 025 004 03
120930 2153N 09441W 9790 00213 0032 +240 +211 100022 022 023 003 00
121000 2152N 09441W 9786 00217 0031 +240 +212 101023 023 023 001 00
121030 2150N 09442W 9788 00215 0031 +240 +214 103023 024 023 004 00
121100 2149N 09442W 9772 00228 0031 +235 +213 108022 024 027 012 00
121130 2147N 09442W 9609 00373 //// +196 //// 121024 026 054 032 05
121200 2146N 09443W 9593 00390 0037 +192 //// 109025 029 054 025 05
121230 2144N 09443W 9613 00375 0036 +209 +205 115021 023 030 011 00
121300 2143N 09444W 9597 00388 0033 +219 +203 112022 023 025 008 00
121330 2141N 09444W 9598 00386 0033 +218 +201 109024 024 024 007 00
121400 2140N 09445W 9601 00384 0031 +223 +201 108024 024 023 004 00
121430 2138N 09445W 9600 00384 0030 +227 +200 107025 025 022 004 00
121500 2137N 09446W 9601 00382 0029 +228 +200 109023 024 022 003 00
121530 2135N 09446W 9600 00382 0028 +227 +202 112021 021 023 005 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure so far, 1002.8 mbs

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared image

[srainhoutx]

Apparently CIMSS fell asleep at the wheel, they still aren't showing Arlene, so no ADT numbers, or other products.

NOAA numbers are more reliable, IMO...

29/1145 UTC 21.6N 95.7W T2.5/2.5 ARLENE -- Atlantic

[brunota2003]

Apparently CIMSS fell asleep at the wheel, they still aren't showing Arlene, so no ADT numbers, or other products.

NOAA numbers are more reliable, IMO...

29/1145 UTC 21.6N 95.7W T2.5/2.5 ARLENE -- Atlantic

I like watching them bounce around, and I want to get to a couple of the other storm products, like MIMIC-TC...but alas, they haven't updated.

[NDG]

Center seems to be further S & W than I thought, pressure keeps going down.

URNT15 KNHC 291225
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 20 20110629
121600 2134N 09447W 9601 00381 0028 +226 +195 116021 021 023 005 00
121630 2133N 09447W 9597 00385 0028 +222 +203 118021 022 022 005 03
121700 2131N 09448W 9601 00379 0026 +224 +206 117020 020 021 005 00
121730 2130N 09449W 9600 00378 0026 +221 +206 115021 021 027 004 00
121800 2128N 09450W 9599 00380 0025 +220 +207 116021 022 021 005 00
121830 2127N 09450W 9600 00377 0025 +218 +206 113022 023 025 006 00
121900 2126N 09451W 9599 00379 0025 +206 +206 118023 026 035 009 00
121930 2124N 09452W 9599 00378 0025 +209 +207 133022 025 028 007 00
122000 2123N 09453W 9600 00376 0023 +219 +199 139017 017 025 008 03
122030 2122N 09454W 9597 00379 0023 +211 +199 136017 018 031 011 03
122100 2120N 09454W 9598 00377 0023 +210 +198 138016 017 /// /// 03
122130 2119N 09456W 9599 00375 0022 +207 +199 144013 015 /// /// 03
122200 2118N 09457W 9598 00376 0022 +207 +199 148015 017 /// /// 03
122230 2117N 09458W 9602 00371 0021 +208 +197 169012 014 /// /// 03
122300 2116N 09459W 9599 00374 0020 +214 +199 197007 008 /// /// 03
122330 2116N 09501W 9602 00371 0018 +223 +200 189008 008 /// /// 03
122400 2116N 09502W 9600 00371 0016 +225 +197 181008 009 /// /// 03
122430 2116N 09504W 9604 00368 0016 +227 +201 184010 010 /// /// 03
122500 2116N 09506W 9600 00370 0014 +230 +201 189010 010 /// /// 03
122530 2116N 09508W 9600 00370 0013 +230 +202 187009 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[brunota2003]

Well...the 8 am advisory said 1002 mb, and so far the lowest pressure measured by recon was 1001.3 mb.