ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Nimbus]

Once Arlene gets inland She should unwind and spread out, hopefully the remnant moisture will get sheared north over a larger area of Texas.

[brunota2003]

Recon is on it's way to Arlene...the first center fix will be at about 8 am EDT. If someone could post the data, that would be great...I have to go to work.

000
URNT15 KNHC 290945
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 04 20110629
093600 2958N 08916W 5681 04865 //// -018 //// 001012 016 /// /// 05
093630 2957N 08918W 5506 05118 //// -018 //// 343012 014 /// /// 05
093700 2955N 08919W 5375 05311 0275 -029 //// 327007 009 /// /// 05
093730 2953N 08920W 5247 05501 0286 -036 //// 293007 007 /// /// 05
093800 2952N 08921W 5134 05675 0298 -049 //// 290006 007 /// /// 05
093830 2950N 08923W 5031 05836 0308 -059 //// 277004 006 /// /// 05
093900 2949N 08924W 4942 05978 0318 -061 //// 124003 004 /// /// 05
093930 2947N 08926W 4849 06124 0326 -068 //// 087002 003 /// /// 05
094000 2946N 08927W 4756 06279 0338 -073 //// 003003 004 /// /// 05
094030 2944N 08928W 4679 06407 0347 -081 //// 036003 004 /// /// 05
094100 2943N 08930W 4602 06533 0354 -093 //// 025002 003 /// /// 05
094130 2941N 08931W 4521 06668 0359 -105 //// 338003 003 /// /// 05
094200 2940N 08933W 4454 06779 0363 -114 //// 345004 005 /// /// 05
094230 2938N 08934W 4419 06842 0369 -112 //// 353005 005 /// /// 05
094300 2937N 08936W 4364 06935 0371 -116 //// 003005 005 /// /// 05
094330 2935N 08937W 4290 07066 0379 -128 //// 347003 004 /// /// 05
094400 2934N 08939W 4224 07184 0389 -138 //// 003005 005 /// /// 05
094430 2932N 08940W 4172 07284 0398 -145 //// 015007 009 /// /// 05
094500 2931N 08942W 4135 07352 0402 -147 //// 013009 010 /// /// 05
094530 2929N 08943W 4081 07449 0408 -151 -314 016007 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[GCANE]

Shooting some cold topped cu-nims in the ADT bulls-eye which indicates further strengthening is likely.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 290415.jpg


However, looks like it will be a moderate increase in strength.

Not seeing any high-rain rate hot towers and core temp is wide and low in altitude.

Not a text book lapse-rate through the COC.

WISHE is in effect as indicated by the PV-anomaly at the surface.

[cycloneye]

I will only be here for half an hour.

URNT15 KNHC 291045
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 10 20110629
103600 2610N 09250W 3930 07726 0419 -152 -206 241005 005 /// /// 03
103630 2608N 09252W 3930 07728 0419 -150 -196 237006 006 /// /// 05
103700 2606N 09253W 3930 07726 0419 -150 -203 238006 007 /// /// 03
103730 2604N 09255W 3930 07728 0419 -150 -197 255004 005 /// /// 03
103800 2602N 09257W 3930 07725 0418 -150 -200 261004 005 /// /// 03
103830 2600N 09259W 3929 07728 0418 -150 -194 280005 005 /// /// 03
103900 2558N 09300W 3929 07729 0418 -150 -195 271004 004 /// /// 03
103930 2556N 09302W 3931 07723 0418 -150 -199 248003 004 /// /// 05
104000 2554N 09304W 3930 07726 0418 -150 -193 221003 004 /// /// 03
104030 2552N 09305W 3930 07726 0417 -150 -198 202003 003 /// /// 05
104100 2550N 09307W 3930 07723 0416 -150 -195 176003 003 /// /// 05
104130 2548N 09309W 3930 07724 0416 -151 -195 174003 003 /// /// 03
104200 2546N 09311W 3930 07724 0415 -155 -197 160002 002 /// /// 03
104230 2544N 09312W 3930 07722 0414 -153 -193 141003 004 /// /// 03
104300 2542N 09314W 3930 07722 0414 -151 -191 149004 005 /// /// 05
104330 2540N 09316W 3930 07722 0414 -149 -192 163007 009 /// /// 03
104400 2538N 09318W 3929 07726 0414 -150 -194 157009 009 /// /// 03
104430 2536N 09319W 3932 07718 0413 -152 -199 149008 009 /// /// 03
104500 2535N 09321W 3930 07721 0413 -154 -190 143006 006 /// /// 03
104530 2533N 09323W 3930 07722 0413 -154 -192 139004 005 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291055
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 11 20110629
104600 2531N 09325W 3930 07722 0413 -155 -188 141005 006 /// /// 03
104630 2529N 09326W 3931 07719 0412 -155 -196 134006 006 /// /// 05
104700 2527N 09328W 3930 07721 0412 -155 -194 117007 008 /// /// 03
104730 2525N 09330W 3930 07719 0411 -155 -198 116009 009 /// /// 03
104800 2523N 09332W 3929 07721 0411 -155 -187 119010 011 /// /// 05
104830 2521N 09333W 3930 07720 0410 -154 -195 113009 010 /// /// 03
104900 2519N 09335W 3930 07717 0409 -153 -192 110010 010 /// /// 03
104930 2517N 09337W 3930 07715 0408 -155 -193 111011 011 /// /// 03
105000 2515N 09339W 3930 07715 0407 -154 -199 123012 013 /// /// 03
105030 2513N 09341W 3926 07716 0408 -156 -190 122013 014 /// /// 03
105100 2511N 09342W 3925 07736 0421 -160 -188 123014 015 /// /// 03
105130 2509N 09344W 3927 07736 0422 -160 -196 108017 018 /// /// 03
105200 2507N 09346W 3926 07738 0420 -165 -191 105021 021 /// /// 05
105230 2505N 09348W 3926 07737 0420 -164 -187 102019 020 /// /// 03
105300 2503N 09349W 3926 07738 0421 -165 -191 096018 019 /// /// 03
105330 2500N 09351W 3926 07737 0421 -165 -194 094018 019 /// /// 03
105400 2458N 09353W 3926 07735 0420 -163 -186 085016 017 /// /// 03
105430 2456N 09355W 3923 07741 0424 -158 -188 090014 015 /// /// 03
105500 2454N 09355W 3929 07728 0420 -156 -193 099014 016 /// /// 03
105530 2451N 09355W 3925 07737 0419 -160 -195 107017 018 /// /// 03

[AHS2011]

Is Arlene going through cyclogenesis? What are you predicting the maximum wind speed will be of Arlene, pre-landfall?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 291105
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 12 20110629
105600 2449N 09354W 3926 07729 0417 -161 -192 109019 020 /// /// 05
105630 2447N 09353W 3927 07733 0417 -168 -196 104018 019 /// /// 03
105700 2444N 09352W 3926 07736 0417 -165 -188 103019 020 /// /// 05
105730 2442N 09352W 3926 07732 0417 -165 -186 104019 019 /// /// 03
105800 2439N 09351W 3925 07741 0418 -161 -196 105019 019 /// /// 03
105830 2437N 09351W 3923 07734 0417 -160 -186 106020 020 /// /// 03
105900 2435N 09351W 3929 07729 0417 -160 -188 103020 020 /// /// 03
105930 2432N 09350W 3925 07734 0418 -160 -193 101018 019 /// /// 05
110000 2430N 09350W 3925 07737 0419 -160 -181 100018 019 /// /// 03
110030 2427N 09350W 3927 07723 0418 -160 -180 102019 019 /// /// 03
110100 2425N 09349W 3923 07736 0419 -159 -181 110018 018 /// /// 03
110130 2422N 09349W 3926 07735 0420 -160 -182 115016 016 /// /// 03
110200 2420N 09349W 3929 07725 0419 -160 -182 111016 016 /// /// 03
110230 2417N 09348W 3926 07736 0419 -160 -172 106015 016 /// /// 05
110300 2415N 09348W 3926 07731 0420 -160 -180 109015 016 /// /// 03
110330 2412N 09348W 3926 07734 0418 -158 -177 111014 014 /// /// 03
110400 2410N 09347W 3929 07736 0420 -155 -182 107014 014 /// /// 03
110430 2407N 09347W 3929 07731 0419 -155 -178 110013 014 /// /// 05
110500 2407N 09347W 3929 07731 0417 -155 -177 105012 013 /// /// 05
110530 2403N 09347W 3925 07731 0418 -153 -168 110011 011 /// /// 03
$$

[GCANE]

Is Arlene going through cyclogenesis? What are you predicting the maximum wind speed will be of Arlene, pre-landfall?

Arlene is a TC. I doubt it will make Cat 1 before landfall.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 291115
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 13 20110629
110600 2400N 09346W 3926 07734 0416 -154 -171 113010 010 /// /// 03
110630 2358N 09346W 3926 07738 0418 -155 -170 123010 010 /// /// 05
110700 2356N 09346W 3933 07723 0420 -152 -162 119010 010 /// /// 03
110730 2354N 09346W 3933 07730 0427 -150 -162 108010 010 /// /// 03
110800 2352N 09345W 3925 07744 0429 -155 //// 106012 014 /// /// 05
110830 2350N 09345W 3926 07746 0429 -155 -157 106012 013 /// /// 05
110900 2349N 09345W 3927 07749 0431 -155 -157 097010 011 /// /// 03
110930 2347N 09345W 3925 07750 0431 -155 -159 103011 011 /// /// 05
111000 2345N 09345W 3926 07744 0432 -155 //// 114012 012 /// /// 05
111030 2343N 09344W 3930 07739 0432 -153 //// 111010 011 /// /// 05
111100 2342N 09344W 3923 07754 0430 -152 //// 122014 015 /// /// 05
111130 2340N 09344W 3927 07745 0430 -148 //// 118014 015 /// /// 05
111200 2338N 09344W 3926 07741 0432 -149 //// 124014 014 /// /// 05
111230 2336N 09344W 3923 07747 0430 -149 //// 139012 012 /// /// 05
111300 2335N 09343W 3926 07746 0429 -148 //// 148009 011 /// /// 05
111330 2333N 09343W 3925 07746 0427 -148 //// 158006 009 /// /// 05
111400 2331N 09343W 3926 07744 0427 -146 //// 168007 009 /// /// 05
111430 2329N 09343W 3931 07740 0430 -145 //// 142005 005 /// /// 05
111500 2328N 09342W 3929 07745 0431 -144 //// 157008 010 /// /// 05
111530 2326N 09342W 3926 07750 0431 -145 //// 168010 011 /// /// 05
$$

[cycloneye]

Plane decending.

URNT15 KNHC 291125
AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 14 20110629
111600 2324N 09342W 3927 07740 0429 -145 //// 159010 011 /// /// 05
111630 2322N 09342W 3927 07739 0430 -145 //// 164010 011 /// /// 05
111700 2321N 09342W 3927 07745 0429 -145 //// 170007 008 /// /// 05
111730 2319N 09341W 3921 07750 0425 -148 //// 166008 008 /// /// 05
111800 2317N 09341W 3922 07741 0424 -150 //// 166010 010 /// /// 05
111830 2316N 09341W 3923 07744 0424 -148 //// 178008 009 /// /// 05
111900 2316N 09341W 3923 07744 0423 -147 //// 153007 009 /// /// 05
111930 2312N 09341W 3927 07734 0423 -145 //// 157002 004 /// /// 05
112000 2310N 09340W 3930 07730 0423 -145 //// 295004 006 /// /// 05
112030 2309N 09340W 3923 07732 0421 -144 //// 284004 005 /// /// 05
112100 2307N 09340W 3930 07728 0423 -141 //// 046008 011 /// /// 05
112130 2305N 09341W 3934 07729 0428 -142 //// 103028 036 /// /// 05
112200 2305N 09343W 4113 07388 0401 -127 //// 123036 039 /// /// 05
112230 2307N 09344W 4268 07108 0383 -106 //// 133031 033 /// /// 05
112300 2309N 09344W 4464 06751 0347 -091 //// 141034 038 /// /// 05
112330 2310N 09342W 4660 06396 0309 -076 -080 132036 037 /// /// 03
112400 2312N 09340W 4798 06178 0302 -064 -092 133035 036 /// /// 03
112430 2313N 09338W 4950 05933 0286 -054 -098 136030 032 /// /// 03
112500 2314N 09337W 5104 05696 0269 -042 -099 128027 027 /// /// 03
112530 2316N 09335W 5249 05461 0256 -031 -098 122023 026 /// /// 03

[GCANE]

Core structure is improving due to the heavy convection firing close to the COC.

[NDG]

50 knots found so far at flight level.

112600 2317N 09333W 5437 05197 0245 -019 -096 114014 015 /// /// 03
112630 2315N 09331W 5616 04935 0081 -010 -092 092016 018 /// /// 03
112700 2313N 09333W 5803 04658 0083 -006 -085 082019 019 /// /// 03
112730 2312N 09335W 5964 04432 0090 +004 -083 075019 020 /// /// 03
112800 2310N 09337W 6148 04210 0098 +028 -082 078018 020 /// /// 03
112830 2308N 09339W 6359 03933 0102 +039 -076 070022 025 /// /// 03
112900 2306N 09341W 6583 03646 0118 +048 -069 073029 031 /// /// 03
112930 2307N 09344W 6867 03304 0120 +065 -056 087036 038 /// /// 03
113000 2309N 09346W 7160 02945 0109 +087 -040 106042 045 /// /// 03
113030 2311N 09345W 7492 02561 0102 +108 -019 119043 044 /// /// 03
113100 2312N 09343W 7701 02325 0099 +124 +008 122041 042 /// /// 03
113130 2314N 09341W 7909 02112 0114 +131 +024 124042 044 /// /// 03
113200 2315N 09340W 8126 01887 0115 +144 +036 125046 047 /// /// 03
113230 2315N 09338W 8407 01592 0110 +160 +052 129045 045 /// /// 03
113300 2314N 09336W 8627 01371 0108 +167 +066 131045 046 /// /// 03
113330 2312N 09336W 8804 01193 0105 +176 +075 128048 048 /// /// 03
113400 2311N 09337W 8987 01012 0097 +184 +096 120049 050 /// /// 03
113430 2310N 09339W 9176 00820 0087 +195 +108 113048 050 /// /// 03
113500 2308N 09341W 9392 00612 0079 +208 +120 109048 048 /// /// 03
113530 2307N 09342W 9605 00425 0079 +217 +123 104047 048 /// /// 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

it has 03 at the end, so it's no good

[NDG]

Yeah, I saw that but is fairly consistent, I don't know why it was flagged.

[NDG]

I still think that Arlene has a chance to become a hurricane right before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Yeah, I saw that but is fairly consistent, I don't know why it was flagged.

Plane still descending

[Andy_L]

Yeah, I saw that but is fairly consistent, I don't know why it was flagged.

03 just applies to SMRF doesn't it??

[NDG]

Don't know why it is still being flagged, looks good to me.

AF308 0201A ARLENE HDOB 16 20110629
113600 2306N 09344W 9680 00351 0079 +221 +138 100047 048 /// /// 03
113630 2305N 09346W 9664 00363 0076 +216 +144 100049 051 /// /// 03
113700 2307N 09347W 9681 00348 0078 +219 +151 104045 047 /// /// 03
113730 2308N 09346W 9702 00333 0081 +223 +160 108044 045 /// /// 03
113800 2309N 09344W 9749 00291 0081 +229 +160 108043 046 /// /// 03
113830 2310N 09343W 9732 00303 0076 +230 +165 107042 043 /// /// 03
113900 2311N 09342W 9745 00291 0076 +228 +171 105042 044 /// /// 03
113930 2311N 09341W 9760 00279 0076 +232 +180 108042 045 /// /// 03
114000 2310N 09340W 9767 00272 0076 +233 +180 109041 042 /// /// 03
114030 2309N 09340W 9742 00293 0075 +230 +181 107041 042 /// /// 03
114100 2307N 09340W 9753 00282 0075 +229 +188 104042 043 /// /// 03
114130 2306N 09341W 9767 00269 0073 +229 +184 102044 045 /// /// 03
114200 2305N 09343W 9730 00302 0073 +225 +190 102044 045 /// /// 03
114230 2304N 09344W 9722 00306 0073 +223 +190 103044 046 /// /// 03
114300 2302N 09345W 9740 00292 0071 +223 +187 102041 041 /// /// 03
114330 2301N 09347W 9732 00299 0071 +224 +184 107042 044 /// /// 03
114400 2300N 09348W 9730 00299 0070 +225 +185 105040 043 /// /// 03
114430 2259N 09349W 9730 00298 0069 +221 +185 103040 042 /// /// 03
114500 2258N 09350W 9728 00297 0068 +219 +190 108038 042 /// /// 03
114530 2256N 09352W 9740 00284 0065 +224 +185 103036 038 /// /// 03
$$

[NDG]

Yeah, I saw that but is fairly consistent, I don't know why it was flagged.

03 just applies to SMRF doesn't it??

Probably, it seems not to be working right now.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll be surprised if she makes hurricane strength, might get close somewhere between 60-70mph are my thoughts with the limited time, light shear and only 83-84F SST's.