ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
0000 UTC WED JUN 29 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.7W AT 29/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.7W AT 29/0000Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 94.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 96.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 97.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 93.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. ARLENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

NNNN



FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[lebron23]

Forecasted to make landfall just south of tampico

[NDG]

NHC has landfall at 60MPH

That's probably a little conservative since Arlene has a good 24 hrs to make landfall with almost perfect UL conditions developing before landfall tomorrow night or Thursday morning, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane]

10% for category 1 hurricane! Humberto was a TS when the NHC gave him a 10% chance at becoming a hurricane. Just a fun fact for ya'll.

[brunota2003]

I saw the convection increasing, but I figured they would of given it a few more hours before the upgrade. Guessing that they wanted the extra few hours of warning.

[Annie Oakley]

What an exciting day watching the recon obs etc....
Arlene is here. Just hoping Texas gets something..especially the Valley.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF increases intensity at landfall.

[cycloneye]

wanted the extra few hours of warning

In my view,that was the key factor to go ahead now.

[lebron23]

10% for category 1 hurricane! Humberto was a TS when the NHC gave him a 10% chance at becoming a hurricane. Just a fun fact for ya'll.

13 percent.

[brunota2003]

Will be curious what the MIMIC-TC shows later

[cycloneye]

The discussion came out very late.


TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 2245 UTC FROM
SAB AND TAFB WERE 2.5 AND 2.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY FOUND AN
AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
THE FIRST OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WEAKNESS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE
SHEARING AFFECTS OF THE RETREATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE LESSENING
AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PERHAPS THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
COULD BE THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0000Z 21.2N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.7N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 97.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1800Z...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[NDG]

BOC storms always excite me, most times they are unpredicted, but this time credit goes to the GFS for sniffing it 7-10 days ago, while the euro was very conservative and over doing it with the ridge forecasting the vorticity to stay in central America into the Mexican main land.
But the GFS dropped the system by late last week going along with the previous ecmwf runs, but on Saturday the ecmwf sniffed the correct sypnotic set up before it was too late and jumped into the previous GFS runs of developing Arlene, though further south than what the GFS was showing last week.
The funny thing is that the CMC at one point was in between the gfs and the euro, proved to be right.

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290014
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 2245 UTC FROM
SAB AND TAFB WERE 2.5 AND 2.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY FOUND AN
AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
THE FIRST OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
WEAKNESS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE
SHEARING AFFECTS OF THE RETREATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE LESSENING
AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PERHAPS THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
COULD BE THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0000Z 21.2N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.7N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 97.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1800Z...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Pretty good shot at becoming a Hurricane...and they have a typo, but no one is perfect

[beagleagle23]

Tropical Storm Arlene is trending on Twitter.

[plasticup]

Not sure how they are predicting a maximum of 60 mph. Yes, time is limited before landfall, but she is already at 40 mph and conditions are damn near perfect.

[plasticup]

GFDL initializes well, but doesn't develop the system.

[NDG]

Waves now 12' at buoy 42055, pressure continues to slowly drop with TD force winds.

Conditions at 42055 as of
(6:50 pm CDT)

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 71 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.1 °F

[tropicwatch]

Not sure how they are predicting a maximum of 60 mph. Yes, time is limited before landfall, but she is already at 40 mph and conditions are damn near perfect.

Upper level winds are still a little strong.

Tropicwatch

[lrak]

She is getting huge and fast too.

[brunota2003]

They limited the winds because the circulation is pretty big (longer to wind up)...if it can tighten quickly, it could get stronger.