ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

18z Models

SHIP increases intensity at landfall to 51kts.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 281839
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC TUE JUN 28 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110628 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110628  1800   110629  0600   110629  1800   110630  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  93.3W   21.4N  95.6W   21.6N  97.6W   21.2N  99.4W
BAMD    20.9N  93.3W   21.4N  94.8W   21.7N  96.4W   21.8N  98.0W
BAMM    20.9N  93.3W   21.4N  95.2W   21.5N  97.1W   21.4N  98.8W
LBAR    20.9N  93.3W   21.5N  94.8W   22.3N  96.8W   23.1N  98.9W
SHIP        30KTS          39KTS          47KTS          51KTS
DSHP        30KTS          39KTS          47KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110630  1800   110701  1800   110702  1800   110703  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.1N 100.8W   20.4N 103.6W   20.4N 106.6W   20.6N 109.5W
BAMD    21.8N  99.8W   21.8N 103.6W   22.0N 107.4W   22.2N 111.1W
BAMM    21.2N 100.5W   20.6N 104.1W   20.5N 107.8W   20.5N 111.4W
LBAR    24.1N 101.3W   25.6N 105.2W   28.4N 108.9W   30.9N 110.7W
SHIP        56KTS          67KTS          68KTS          61KTS
DSHP        40KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.9N LONCUR =  93.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  20.5N LONM12 =  92.3W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  19.7N LONM24 =  90.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[wxman57]

What strikes me as peculiar is that every single SFMR wind is stronger than the FL wind. I see that a lot with all strengths of storms. Makes me wonder about SFMR calibration.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281850
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 19 20110628
184030 2104N 09303W 9704 00318 0066 +219 +196 177015 016 036 007 00
184100 2104N 09301W 9696 00328 0066 +225 +194 176016 016 035 009 00
184130 2104N 09300W 9704 00319 0067 +214 +188 177016 017 040 010 00
184200 2104N 09258W 9702 00322 0067 +222 +184 173019 019 034 002 00
184230 2104N 09256W 9700 00325 0066 +229 +180 172020 020 026 000 03
184300 2104N 09255W 9702 00323 0068 +222 +181 164025 027 037 001 00
184330 2104N 09253W 9701 00323 0069 +219 +185 151026 026 038 004 03
184400 2103N 09252W 9688 00335 0069 +217 +182 152023 024 /// /// 03
184430 2102N 09253W 9698 00326 0068 +220 +183 157024 025 038 002 03
184500 2101N 09255W 9699 00327 0068 +224 +184 163020 023 035 002 03
184530 2101N 09256W 9699 00327 0067 +230 +185 162018 018 028 000 00
184600 2100N 09258W 9699 00325 0067 +228 +183 163017 017 029 000 03
184630 2100N 09259W 9699 00325 0066 +232 +185 166016 017 030 000 03
184700 2059N 09301W 9701 00323 0065 +231 +188 169017 017 031 000 00
184730 2059N 09302W 9699 00324 0065 +235 +189 173016 017 031 000 00
184800 2058N 09304W 9701 00322 0064 +235 +193 175016 016 030 000 00
184830 2057N 09305W 9699 00323 0064 +235 +194 170015 015 028 000 00
184900 2057N 09307W 9700 00322 0064 +235 +200 177014 015 027 001 00
184930 2056N 09308W 9698 00325 0063 +235 +200 176012 012 026 000 00
185000 2056N 09310W 9700 00322 0063 +235 +205 174009 010 024 001 00
$$
;

[lebron23]

Any west winds found?

yes but very, very weak

at least they found some

[lebron23]

Brownsville,TX Radar, you can clearly see bands rotating around the system

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Long range

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes

[Dave]

[NDG]

What strikes me as peculiar is that every single SFMR wind is stronger than the FL wind. I see that a lot with all strengths of storms. Makes me wonder about SFMR calibration.

I have to admit it makes me question it.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281901
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 20 20110628
185030 2055N 09312W 9699 00324 0063 +235 +207 167007 008 018 000 00
185100 2055N 09313W 9699 00323 0064 +235 +212 157006 006 017 000 03
185130 2054N 09315W 9699 00323 0064 +235 +209 158005 005 017 000 03
185200 2053N 09316W 9700 00322 0063 +235 +207 161003 004 016 000 00
185230 2053N 09318W 9700 00322 0063 +237 +206 168003 003 019 000 03
185300 2052N 09319W 9699 00324 0064 +235 +210 170002 002 018 000 00
185330 2051N 09321W 9699 00324 0065 +235 +208 139001 002 018 000 00
185400 2051N 09322W 9700 00324 0065 +235 +211 116001 002 019 000 00
185430 2050N 09324W 9699 00325 0065 +235 +214 083002 002 019 000 03
185500 2049N 09325W 9700 00323 0065 +235 +214 078001 002 019 001 03
185530 2049N 09327W 9700 00323 0065 +235 +215 063002 002 017 000 03
185600 2048N 09328W 9699 00324 0065 +235 +211 083001 002 019 000 00
185630 2047N 09330W 9699 00325 0065 +235 +214 117001 001 020 000 00
185700 2046N 09331W 9700 00323 0064 +235 +215 132000 001 019 000 00
185730 2046N 09333W 9699 00324 0064 +235 +214 061001 001 019 000 03
185800 2045N 09334W 9699 00324 0065 +235 +210 093001 002 018 000 00
185830 2044N 09336W 9699 00325 0064 +235 +219 148002 003 019 000 03
185900 2044N 09337W 9698 00324 0064 +233 +217 134002 004 025 002 00
185930 2043N 09339W 9702 00321 0064 +235 +216 264003 003 019 000 00
190000 2042N 09340W 9700 00323 0064 +235 +211 321002 003 021 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Someone take over for awhile...thanks!

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass showing the circulation.

[wxman57]

What strikes me as peculiar is that every single SFMR wind is stronger than the FL wind. I see that a lot with all strengths of storms. Makes me wonder about SFMR calibration.

I have to admit it makes me question it.

When recon passed that buoy near 22.2N/94W earlier, it estimated 30-31kts SFMR. However, that buoy has been at 15-20 kts today. I don't believe the SFMR reports are representative of true surface winds.

[Extratropical94]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281910
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 21 20110628
190030 2042N 09342W 9699 00324 0065 +235 +209 305002 004 022 000 00
190100 2041N 09343W 9701 00322 0065 +235 +209 320004 004 024 000 03
190130 2040N 09345W 9701 00323 0065 +233 +208 325005 006 024 000 00
190200 2040N 09346W 9700 00324 0066 +235 +205 343007 007 021 000 03
190230 2039N 09348W 9698 00327 0066 +235 +206 343007 008 019 000 00
190300 2038N 09349W 9699 00326 0066 +235 +208 344006 007 016 000 03
190330 2037N 09351W 9701 00324 0066 +235 +208 356006 006 019 000 03
190400 2037N 09352W 9699 00326 0067 +235 +208 353006 007 018 000 00
190430 2036N 09354W 9699 00325 0067 +235 +213 360006 006 018 000 00
190500 2035N 09355W 9699 00327 0067 +235 +207 358006 007 018 000 00
190530 2035N 09357W 9698 00328 0067 +237 +212 007007 007 017 000 00
190600 2034N 09358W 9703 00324 0068 +235 +213 005007 008 016 000 00
190630 2033N 09400W 9700 00326 0068 +235 +215 011007 008 017 000 03
190700 2033N 09402W 9688 00337 0068 +235 +213 030006 007 /// /// 03
190730 2034N 09403W 9693 00333 0069 +233 +216 031005 005 /// /// 03
190800 2035N 09402W 9729 00300 0067 +235 +214 348004 005 /// /// 03
190830 2036N 09401W 9685 00340 0068 +235 +218 330005 006 014 000 03
190900 2036N 09359W 9706 00321 0068 +235 +215 310004 005 019 000 00
190930 2036N 09357W 9696 00330 0067 +235 +213 313003 004 018 000 00
191000 2036N 09356W 9692 00333 0067 +235 +217 314003 004 014 000 03
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Thanks Dave for your effort and the nice images.

Maybe someone could generate Google Earth images as I am unable to do so atm.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 22, flying west

000
URNT15 KNHC 281920
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 22 20110628
191030 2036N 09354W 9699 00327 0067 +235 +208 307003 004 014 000 03
191100 2036N 09352W 9694 00331 0067 +235 +212 293004 004 014 000 03
191130 2035N 09351W 9699 00326 0066 +235 +213 283004 004 015 000 00
191200 2035N 09349W 9696 00329 0067 +235 +217 257004 005 015 000 03
191230 2035N 09347W 9698 00327 0067 +235 +215 251004 005 016 000 00
191300 2035N 09345W 9700 00325 0067 +235 +213 254004 004 015 000 03
191330 2035N 09344W 9694 00331 0066 +235 +210 234006 006 014 000 03
191400 2035N 09342W 9694 00332 0067 +235 +213 228006 007 015 000 00
191430 2036N 09340W 9699 00326 0066 +235 +213 219006 007 014 000 00
191500 2036N 09339W 9700 00325 0066 +235 +214 229007 007 014 000 00
191530 2036N 09337W 9699 00325 0066 +235 +209 232007 008 013 000 03
191600 2036N 09335W 9696 00328 0065 +235 +212 229007 007 010 000 03
191630 2036N 09333W 9692 00331 0065 +235 +218 222009 009 008 000 00
191700 2036N 09332W 9696 00327 0065 +235 +215 218010 010 009 000 00
191730 2036N 09330W 9701 00323 0065 +236 +211 214009 010 009 000 00
191800 2036N 09328W 9696 00327 0065 +238 +209 212011 011 012 001 03
191830 2036N 09326W 9694 00330 0066 +235 +209 214011 012 012 000 00
191900 2036N 09325W 9701 00324 0066 +235 +215 208011 011 011 000 00
191930 2036N 09323W 9700 00325 0066 +236 +213 214011 012 013 000 03
192000 2036N 09321W 9690 00334 0066 +238 +213 215013 014 013 000 00
$$
;

[piggy]

Maybe they will test that Micro-UAV that can be deployed from a dropsonde tube.
then they could get closer to the surface.

[wxman57]

Maybe they will test that Micro-UAV that can be deployed from a dropsonde tube.
then they could get closer to the surface.

I thought about that, but those things can get pretty expensive. Wouldn't want to waste it on a system like this.

[South Texas Storms]

Based on the current size of this system, how farth north would it have to make landfall for central Texas to get some rainbands from it? At the very least, won't this system create a weakness in the ridge for Texas? I'm so tired of this stubborn "cockroach" ridge.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 23, still going west


000
URNT15 KNHC 281930
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 23 20110628
192030 2036N 09319W 9699 00327 0066 +237 +212 209013 014 014 000 03
192100 2036N 09318W 9692 00333 0066 +235 +213 210014 014 010 000 03
192130 2036N 09316W 9695 00330 0066 +235 +213 208014 014 012 000 00
192200 2036N 09314W 9700 00325 0066 +235 +215 203014 014 014 000 00
192230 2036N 09313W 9696 00330 0066 +235 +214 203015 015 014 000 00
192300 2037N 09311W 9693 00331 0066 +235 +216 202016 016 017 000 00
192330 2037N 09309W 9698 00327 0066 +235 +215 198017 017 015 000 00
192400 2037N 09307W 9698 00328 0066 +235 +215 196016 017 016 000 03
192430 2037N 09306W 9698 00328 0067 +235 +215 195016 017 016 000 03
192500 2037N 09306W 9698 00328 0067 +235 +213 191017 017 018 000 00
192530 2037N 09302W 9699 00328 0068 +237 +217 190017 018 018 000 00
192600 2037N 09300W 9703 00325 0068 +234 +217 184020 020 022 000 00
192630 2037N 09259W 9692 00334 0069 +234 +210 186020 020 024 000 00
192700 2038N 09257W 9696 00331 0069 +232 +213 189021 022 029 001 00
192730 2038N 09255W 9696 00331 0070 +230 +210 187021 021 030 001 00
192800 2038N 09254W 9695 00333 0069 +235 +208 184021 021 025 001 00
192830 2038N 09252W 9696 00332 0069 +235 +202 187020 021 025 000 00
192900 2038N 09250W 9702 00326 0070 +232 +203 182021 022 028 000 00
192930 2038N 09249W 9695 00334 0071 +228 +204 184023 023 031 000 00
193000 2039N 09247W 9698 00332 0072 +230 +202 180024 026 030 000 00
$$
;

[Hurricane]

STS, it isn't going that far north lol. As much as the TX coast wants this, it isn't going to happen.

[wxman57]

Based on the current size of this system, how farth north would it have to make landfall for central Texas to get some rainbands from it? At the very least, won't this system create a weakness in the ridge for Texas? I'm so tired of this stubborn "cockroach" ridge.

Maybe midway between Brownsville and Tampico. As it stands now, extreme south TX may see some enhanced showers from the increased moisture and slight weakness in the ridge. That wouldn't include your area.