Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[tailgater]

One thing to take note of is that the models last week were quite wrong in predicting a ridge over the southwest Gulf today. There is clearly a trof axis across the area (aloft), resulting in moderate westerly wind shear. I'm thinking 20% may be generous for its chances, maybe 15% too generous. Certainly nothing there today and nothing imminent.

Yeah that ridge looks like it's building over the NW Caribbean, Cuba and SE GOM.

[NDG]

There's no surface low yet, just a weak wave axis. There is a small chance (agree with NHC's 20%) it could spin up into a TD or weak TS just as it moves ashore into Mexico on Wednesday. That's about it. Nothing happening now, though.

Don't you have the wrong area circled, lowest surface pressures are in the extreme southern end of BOC.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest discussion about this area by Dr Jeff Masters:

Tropical disturbance approaching the Gulf of Mexico
Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters due to a tropical wave moving west-northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is currently 20 - 30 knots, which is too high to permit significant development, but wind shear is forecast to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Tuesday, as the wave emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. Several of our reliable computer models are predicting that a system that may approach tropical depression strength could form in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday. NHC is giving the system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Development will be hindered by a large region of dry air to the west, associated with the great 2011 Texas-Mexico drought. However, the topography surrounding the Bay of Campeche tends to boost counter-clockwise air flow, enabling systems there to spin up faster than any other portion of the Atlantic.

[GCANE]

New low tagged 1007mb

[ronjon]

Low pressure may be forming near Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico. They recorded 5.06 inches of rain the last 3 hours, calm winds, and a pressure of 1007 mb. The station just to the southwest, at Villahermosa, was recording a west wind at 14 mph and pressure of 1008 mb.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations05

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html

[cycloneye]

Recon will fly tommorow

Of course if needed,but this is todays TCPOD for tommorow and Wednesday.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 271730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT MON 27 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-027

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 28/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 28/1515Z
       D. 21.0N 94.0W
       E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 29/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 29/0930Z
       D. 22.0N 96.0W
       E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
       FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.



[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

You can see the spin of the low pressure area, but it looks like it will be inland soon, unless they are expecting it to drift north or northwest.

[Hylian Auree]

Up to 30%

Code: Select all

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

Code: Select all

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[South Texas Storms]

And the horrible Texas drought continues... I was really hopeful that this system would come further north and give central Texas some much needed drought relief but now that doesn't appear to be the case.
This tropical disturbance would have been just what the doctor ordered for us ( lots of rain, no wind).

[cycloneye]

Ok peeps,we have invest 95L now so this thread is locked and the discussions can continue at the 95L thread at active storms/invests forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111056&hilit=&p=2134802#p2134802