Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Sanibel]

That West Caribbean disturbance is weak but it might make a run at formation. We'll see.

[x-y-no]

Looks to me like the GFS is still suffering from its longstanding difficulty predicting the strength of mid-level ridging in the mid to long range - although it does seem less pronounced than in previous years.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS is at it again...showing a Low making landfall in northeast mexico by day nine (4th of July)

I'm going to ban myself from looking at the GFS beyond five days..lol

[wxman57]

12zGFS is at it again...showing a Low making landfall in northeast mexico by day nine (4th of July)

I'm going to ban myself from looking at the GFS beyond five days..lol

Good idea. It's always 10 days out...

[tailgater]

Looks like some rotation in the circled area but that well behind the wave axis probably not at the surface!

Very crude circle.

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't totally knock the GFS with this system. It was the first model to show this TW getting better organized in the western Carib. and a low forming at the surface somewhere near Belize and eventually heading toward the BOC. True it has changed a good bit in the eventual track but it is looking like it had the correct idea of this wave organizing a good bit more.

[stormreader]

I tend to agree. I noticed a couple of days ago everyone seemed to be looking at the Gulf proper. But if anything does develop in the Gulf, I don't think it will happen until if and when this energy from the Carribean gets there.

[Macrocane]

I see a slight spin in the Caribbean wave, but have you noticed a more pronounced circulation just south of El Salvador in Central America, or are my eyes tricking me? maybe something to keep an eye on.

[StarmanHDB]

Just checked the color infrared loop....circulation at 15N/82W

[Hylian Auree]

Seems like a mid-level circulation is forming ahead of the wave axis

[cycloneye]

Hey guys.NHC starts to mention it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS UNLIKELY WHILE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WITH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[GCANE]

GFS has the low initialized off Belize and working across to the extreme southern end of the BOC.

Looking at 12 hr RUC forecast, the best opportunity for thunderstorm development will be the northern end of the Yucatan around Cancun and west.

Higher shear and moderate helicity there could likely support MCS development along with a nearly saturated troposphere up to H5.

Once in the BOC, need to see if convection catches up with the LLC.

[wx247]

Well, the NHC is up to 20%. It's not much, but it is something:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY
WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

The over night models trended stronger around 00Z on Wednesday and bit further N near Tampico. I suspect a TD/weak TS may not be out of the question.

[plasticup]

I think that the 20% rating is indicative of the models showing tropicalcyclogenesis in the 48-72 hour period. Formation is unlikely within 48 hours, but more likely after that. So we'll see the probability climb in the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

A bit of a hint of things to come from CARCAH this morning concerning our disturbance over the Yucatan...

NOUS42 KNHC 261515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 26 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 95.0W FOR 28/1800Z.

[Sanibel]

As thin as this one is it seems to have more going on for it at the surface than the last one.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like the 12z models made a pretty big jump to the north for this system possibly giving some rain to south Texas. I hope the trend continues!

[cycloneye]

Not different from the 8 AM one.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE...IF ANY...
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON MONDAY WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[Rgv20]

Hopefully deep south texas can get some much needed rain out of this.

Brownsville afternoon discussion.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR
DEEP SOUTH TX WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE OVERALL TRACK AND
LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE W-NW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS KEEP THIS
FEATURE MOVING ON A GENERAL W-NW DIRECTION WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING
THE FEATURE INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN TAMPICO AND
VERA CRUZ AS A SURFACE LOW. THE GFS SEEMS TO SLOW DOWN THIS
FEATURE AND MAINTAINS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MEANDERING AROUND THE SW
GULF OF MEX THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SINCE THE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...NORTHERN MEX
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX BELIEVE THAT THE GFS SOLUTION DOES
NOT LOOK REASONABLE AND FAVOR THE ECMWF. ALSO THE UKMET AGREES
BETTER WITH THE ECMWF SURFACE SOLUTION IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE. THE LATEST TROPICAL OUTLOOK FROM NHC PLACES A LOW CHC
OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
SO AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS FEATURE FOR DEEP SOUTH
TX WILL LIKELY BE THE INCREASING CONV POTENTIAL LATER THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH GFS MEX POPS HAVE
BECOME MORE ERRATIC SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE LATEST RUN SHOWING A
MUCH WETTER SOLUTION FOR DEEP SOUTH TX ON AND AFTER WED. HAVE
DISREGARDED THE GFS AND WILL GO WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POPS
FROM THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR THE REGION
IN THE 3 TO 7 DAY RANGE. WILL BE GOING ABOVE MEX TEMP GUIDANCE AS
THE CURRENT MODEL TEMPS APPEAR TOO LOW CONSIDERING THE WETTER
SOLUTION GENERATED BY THE 12Z GFS RUN. AS ALWAYS PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC CONCERNING THE
PROGRESS OF THE YUCATAN TROPICAL WAVE.
&&