Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Euro Ensembles are further N...

[tailgater]

Nogaps as well, futher south.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[wxman57]

Yep, models shifting southward and weaker. I'm thinking Bret of 2005 vs. Arlene of 2005 as far as a track.

[cycloneye]

Yep, models shifting southward and weaker. I'm thinking Bret of 2005 vs. Arlene of 2005 as far as a track.

You meant Tropical Storm Gert right?

[GCANE]

I am not putting a lot of stock in the models at the moment as far as genesis location.

In fact, latest FIM is a outlier with genesis farther north.

Spin up is going to be dependent on how convection evolves over the Yucatan and moves out into the BOC.

Given the random nature of surface heating and MCS development this is relatively unpredictable.

[srainhoutx]

HPC morning update re: the Upper Ridge:

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE...MOST DRAMATICALLY WITHIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
STILL...HIGHS BETWEEN 100 AND 110 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[Dean4Storms]

I am not putting a lot of stock in the models at the moment as far as genesis location.

In fact, latest FIM is a outlier with genesis farther north.

Spin up is going to be dependent on how convection evolves over the Yucatan and moves out into the BOC.

Given the random nature of surface heating and MCS development this is relatively unpredictable.

Very true, cyclogenesis developing 100 miles further east in the Carib. or north vs south could make all the difference in the overall track down the road, not to mention the depth of the system!

[KWT]

Yep, models shifting southward and weaker. I'm thinking Bret of 2005 vs. Arlene of 2005 as far as a track.

Yeah I think if we do get anything it'll be one of those quick fire TD/TS systems that try and wrap up before landfall, these tend to end up being almost 50-50 as to whether they make it before landfall...

Will have to see!

[Frank2]

GFS shows a system that opens as it moves towards the coast:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... ion=us&t=l

other than that, a general lack of high pressure over the eastern US is forecast during the next week or more - somewhat unusual for late June/early July...

[dwsqos2]

I guess no one wants to talk about the 12Z gfs. It's okay; it depressed me as well.

[Javlin]

I guess no one wants to talk about the 12Z gfs. It's okay; it depressed me as well.

Why? Did it dry up and blow away

[HURAKAN]

GFS 12Z



7 days ... very far south

[South Texas Storms]

The southward trend in the models makes me very sad. I was really hoping and starting to get excited about a weak tropical storm arlene moving across south texas and putting a huge dent in our drought. Now it seems unlikely.
Is there any reason I should keep my hopes up for some very beneficial rains from this system?

[cycloneye]

12z CMC makes landfall near Tampico,Mexico

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS does not develop at all

I think we may have to wait for another time to see the first storm of the season.

[srainhoutx]

So much for that slowing down idea near the Yucatan over the weekend. The good news is the potential rainfall for S TX and NE Mexico. HPC afternoon Update:

RAINFALL MAGNITUDE/CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS REMAIN A QUESTION
MARK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DEPENDENT UPON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A
SOUTHERLY TREND IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...ENOUGH 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /NEARLY ONE-QUARTER OR 20
OF THE 90/ MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE IN THE PERIOD SO
A TEXAS LANDFALL SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 17Z
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC SPED THIS SYSTEM UP SOMEWHAT FROM
YESTERDAY AND KEPT THIS SYSTEM MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS
LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Sanibel]

Wave axis may be too far south. Flared-up more than I expected today.

[plasticup]

The wave axis is where it has always been. It's the unexpectedly strong ridge over Florida and into the plains that is preventing a northward drift into the Gulf.

[South Texas Storms]

Wave axis may be too far south. Flared-up more than I expected today.

Yeah it did flare up pretty nicely today. It looks like it is currently moving WNW-NW on satellite imagery. I would love to have those tropical downpours all across Texas.

[Javlin]

Well the season is young and the way this high pressure has parked itself I am beginning to think S.Carolina to Mexico is going to be under the gun.I just wish this high back it's you know what up and give us some rain