Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

Mods--Can we split this topic into another thread because this is going to get confusing if something gets going off of Brownsville like it appears may be happening. Just a thought.

It is getting a bit busy in the Gulf right now. Anyone is welcome to make a thread about the convection off Brownsville, since this thread is mainly focusing on the system next week. I would suggest identifying the new thread as the area off Brownsville to reduce confusion.

[tailgater]

Can someone show me a sat pic of the system right now? I don't even know where it is?

The wave in the eastern Caribbean will join the mess down there in and around Panama then track NW and form a Possible low in the gulf of Honduras.(in theory)

[cycloneye]

Here are the two potential players,the monsoon trough and the Tropical Wave.

[MississippiWx]

The models have been remarkably consistent in their development of the system, but I think we still need another day or two of models before we bank on a tropical storm forming. Even though most models keep it in South TX or further south than that, I wouldn't consider that written in stone either. I'm a little worried about how the models seem to depict a collapsing of the steering currents for a couple of days as the system just sits in the BOC. Makes you wonder what could happen during that time.

[KWT]

FWIW the ECM was too far south with Alex as well by a fair amount...though the GFS was too far north to balance things out...

[MississippiWx]

FWIW the ECM was too far south with Alex as well by a fair amount...though the GFS was too far north to balance things out...

Good point. I think they were both doing basically the same thing as they are now.

[Ivanhater]

FWIW the ECM was too far south with Alex as well by a fair amount...though the GFS was too far north to balance things out...

Very true.

18z GFS rolling...by 42 hours the tropical wave has interacted with the monsoon trough by Panama

[Ivanhater]

The models have been remarkably consistent in their development of the system, but I think we still need another day or two of models before we bank on a tropical storm forming. Even though most models keep it in South TX or further south than that, I wouldn't consider that written in stone either. I'm a little worried about how the models seem to depict a collapsing of the steering currents for a couple of days as the system just sits in the BOC. Makes you wonder what could happen during that time.

Yeah...there is still doubt on the table. It will be interesting to see if models trend stronger or weaker with the ridge.

[Ivanhater]

A reminder the area currently in the Gulf is being discussed here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111029

[MississippiWx]

18z GFS at 72 hours:



12z GFS at same time frame:

[Ivanhater]

Edit: Mississippi beat me to it

[MississippiWx]

Ivan, you can do the honors. I know you enjoy posting the models.

Everything seems to be about the same so far...

[Ivanhater]

90 hours

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, you can do the honors. I know you enjoy posting the models.

Everything seems to be about the same so far...

Feel free MS..I need to take a break anyway

[MississippiWx]

108 hours:



So far, the biggest difference is just placement. 18z is no more than 50 or so miles further south.

[MississippiWx]

126 hours:

[South Texas Storms]

FWIW the ECM was too far south with Alex as well by a fair amount...though the GFS was too far north to balance things out...

Good point. If someone forced me to make a prediction on where this potential tropical system will make landfall, I would probably say right in the middle between the current Euro and GFS runs (the northern Mexican coast).

[MississippiWx]

144 hours:

[MississippiWx]

168 hours...She is lifting north:

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS shifts the center of the Upper ridge NE toward Missouri allowing the storm to crawl NNW...at least so far on the run