Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

#241 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:45 am

Well actually it gets caught up..I doubt this solution though but it does raise an eyebrow that the ridge could be in a weakening phase

#242 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:50 am

Gets caught up in the trough and strung out....now that is an interesting solution. If it slows enough in the BOC, the incoming trough could pick it up....this is eerily similar to Alex last year :lol:

#243 Postby **Tireman4** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:53 am

wxman57 wrote:Similar setup to Alex of last year (steering current-wise) as far as the model projections for next week, but a good bit less moisture and no circulation evident on MIMIC TPW loops. I don't tend to get very excited about models predicting development 7-10 days or more out, as was the case early last week for today's "hurricane in the Gulf". But it does bother me that the models haven't shown any signs of dropping the development just 4 days before the predicted development on Monday. If the 12Z runs don't show any signs of backing off, then I will be a bit more concerned that they may be on to something. At this point, I'm thinking 20-30% chance of development early next week. Still well below 50-50, but chances are increasing.

Could it be that the models are so stuck on a "ghost" that it might drop off in two or three days? Is it unusual for the majority of the models to stuck on just one feature?

tropicwatch · #244 Postby **tropicwatch** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:55 am

Conditions seem pretty good for development right now. The radar out of brownsville appears to show a circulation but still over land. What will be telling is when this system seperates from the front that it is attached to now. Would not be surprised if it is mentioned in the 2pm advisory.

Tropicwatch

#245 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:03 pm

Going to be interesting next week for sure!!

Meantime, need to just keep an eye at the tail end of this trough off the coast of south TX. Would not take much to get something organized there if convection persists IMO!

#246 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:10 pm

12z Nogaps

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#247 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:11 pm

12z Canadian is strong but has a stout ridge in place. Looking over the models, conditions looks very favorable in the BOC.

Nimbus · #248 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:13 pm

I noticed the convection building off Tex/Mex but initially thought it was just shear lift from the upper level trough. The circulation over Texas isn't at the surface is it? The ends of troughs can work there way down to the surface and develop provided there is not too much shear but it usually takes a while.

#249 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:29 pm

Ok last Canadian update

Ridge looks displaced to the east

#250 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:39 pm

Nimbus wrote:I noticed the convection building off Tex/Mex but initially thought it was just shear lift from the upper level trough. The circulation over Texas isn't at the surface is it? The ends of troughs can work there way down to the surface and develop provided there is not too much shear but it usually takes a while.

No, nothing indicating a low at the surface. But like you pointed out, tail end of a trough and if it moves over the GOM and convection increases and persists then things could get interesting. Many if's, but still something to watch the next couple days.

#251 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:29 pm

The wave is currently moving through the Caribbean right now

#252 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:45 pm

If this develops,will it take the same track as last year's Alex? As it has been said here,the ridge or lack of will be the key on having a track more south or not.

#253 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:49 pm

12z Euro south into the BOC

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#254 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:59 pm

From this afternoon's HPC discussion:

AT LOWER
LATITUDES...THE 12Z CANADIAN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARDS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. THE 17Z NHC/HPC
COORDINATION CALL LED TO EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS
TRACK CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST NEXT THURSDAY.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

#255 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 1:59 pm

wow the 12z euro keeps it very far to the south. almost no time for it to develop if that run verifies.

#256 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 2:22 pm

NHC - 72 hours

#257 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:05 pm

A track more southward than what hurricane Alex did is very posible. Maybe like the 2000 hurricane Keith one.

Rainband · #258 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:55 pm

all depends on the ridge I guess where this future wave/system ends up.

Hurricane · #259 Postby **Hurricane** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:12 pm

Can someone show me a sat pic of the system right now? I don't even know where it is?

bbadon · #260 Postby **bbadon** » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:14 pm

Mods--Can we split this topic into another thread because this is going to get confusing if something gets going off of Brownsville like it appears may be happening. Just a thought.

Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

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