Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Rgv20]

Even the 18zNam jumping on the bandwagon.

[plasticup]

The only thing I am sure of is that if anything does form, it will not hit anywhere near the TX/MX border. I never know where a storm will hit far out but I do know it wont hit where initially predicted.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!

Hurricane Dean's Cat 5 landfall was predicted within 50 miles more than a week in advance.

The models get better every year. I wouldn't bet the farm on a 168 hour GFS run, but I wouldn't dismiss it either. These things verify, to some degree, more often than we give them credit for. My money is on something rumbling through the Gulf next week. It may not be a big ol' 'cane like GFS says, but I'm confident that there will be something interesting.

edit: this wave develops in all global models: GFS, CMC, EURO, NOGAPS, and HWRF. No outliers.

[Dean4Storms]

Saw some LL rotation right before sunset over eastern MX and now covered in convection. Wonder what happens if it moves offshore?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[lrak]

I was wondering the same thing.

[tailgater]

Yeah another 75 mies east and those models might have been correct, but at least we are getting some rain
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Janie2006]

It was rather interesting to note the MCS move off the Texas coast earlier today and see what (if anything) might happen. There were some interesting pressure drops and low-level convergence, but nothing to write home about. Ah, well. At least people got some good rain.


Let the model roulette wheel continue its spin.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yes indeed tailgater, at least we are getting rain. Have not been able to work near as much this month due to the drought, now can't work due to the rain. Just can't win against Mother Nature. The grass in my backyard has literally grown a couple of inches this week due to rain. Last week the back half of my backyard that the water sprinklers can't reach was brown now its thick and green. Next week is going to be back to normal with our friendly ridge setting up over us once again.

Tailgater, little off topic but where in st amant do you live? I have a couple of employees that live out in your area along with a property I have been clearing out this month off 22 near fisherman 1 stop

[PTrackerLA]

Kinda makes you wonder if watering (the grass that is) isn't really worth it huh? Amazing how much everything has greened up just by this evening from the past two days of rain. Some nice convection going over the western gulf tonight. It will be interesting to see what this area looks like tomorrow with most of the rain focusing offshore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[Annie Oakley]

We have International people watching the board so thanks for the updates.
STS 135 Atlantis July 8th.......tentative awaiting FRR

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed PT. By the time my yard dries out enough I will have to mow over it three or four times to clean it up so it looks nice. I'm watching the area in the gulf, not for any tropical development, but for more rain coming up this way. Our local OCM thinks it will stay offshore but watching it on radar the rain shield sure looks to be moving NE up the texas coast in our direction. I'm guessing it will die out overnight as it gets close to us during the early morning hours though.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS a tad further south than earlier runs.

Forecast for 06/28 Tuesday morning.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the all available guidance it looks like Sunday to Monday will be the time frame for a tropical disturbance to start taking shape.

[Rgv20]

0zCMC at 144hrs has the system in the Southern Gulf.



Its going to be interesting what the 0zEuro shows later tonight.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian goes bonkers

[Ivanhater]

Another view of the Canadian

[Texas Snowman]

Hmmm...the crazy Uncle Canadian goes crazy....

Another view of the Canadian

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Euro Operational and Ensembles have a bit better organized system that is a slightly further N.

[cycloneye]

From NHC:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MENTIONED BELOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION...WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IN THE SW GULF.


Michael, I think this thread will be locked in a few days.

[Dean4Storms]

I see that area of rotation I saw last evening over NE MX has evidently moved offshore. Might need to watch that area.

[plasticup]

The southern gulf doesn't have a particularly high heat potential at the moment. I can't see something blowing up like the Canadian model suggests.