Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[GCANE]

At this point I am not too sure the models are showing a purely tropical system.

FIM is showing an ULL and GFS high shear.

IMHO, the forecast is for more a MCS / MCV.

That is not to say that can change if and once convection fires up.

There were a couple good examples last year in this area that had hot-towers fire up and get circulations down to the surface and invoke RI.

[GCANE]

[wxman57]

Looks like another bogus storm to me. I'm still waiting for that Gulf storm that last week's models forecast to develop today/tomorrow. What is more likely is that we may see another surge of moisture into the NW Gulf Coast next week that could produce a little more rain.

[ronjon]

From HPC this morning:

USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN
HINTED AT YESTERDAY.

[Ivanhater]

And nothing on the 00Z Canadian or Euro. Looks bogus to me. Just like last weeks predictions from the same models of a storm today.

The 00z Euro does have the vigorous wave move into the BOC but suppresses it far enough south that it doesn't have time to develop. If that is the case, then of course it won't develop, but the Euro is showing the same system.

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[Javlin]

WX57 do you think the models are trying to develop something being left over in the BOC maybe?I looked at the WV this morning and hoping the ULL stays tight to my N for some more rain then looked S and see maybe maybe something could be dropped off.Then you have what you brought up every 7-9 days the models are working this system in the BOC and every 7-9 days we have an ULL to our N.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Ivanhater]

Well the 12z GFS has this starting to come together earlier before hitting the Yucatan. I believe our wave approaching the Caribbean is the culprit.

[Ivanhater]

102 hours

[Ivanhater]

144 hours...strengthening and heading into the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

162 hours

[Ivanhater]

180 hours

[ronjon]

Yes IH it looks like the GFS is picking up on the wave near the LA this morning and developing it. Let's see if any of the other globals pick up on it in their 12Z runs today.

[ronjon]

200 mb winds look ideal with a large anti-cyclone over the western gulf in 5-7 days.

[Ivanhater]

Yes IH it looks like the GFS is picking up on the wave near the LA this morning and developing it. Let's see if any of the other globals pick up on it in their 12Z runs today.

Yeah Ron. Landfall is around the Texas/Mexican border. GFS has this starting to come together in 4 days, so a big step in the right direction toward development. The difference between the GFS and Euro is the placement of the upper high. GFS weakens it enough to allow it to head more north and thus time to develop. Euro keeps the high strong enough and shunts the wave far south in the BOC.

[SouthDadeFish]

If the 12Z Euro comes on board, things would become pretty interesting. The 12Z GFS run showed a pretty large system... Would be nice to bust the drought.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps agrees

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[Ivanhater]

It seems that all the models have this system. The difference between development or not will be the placement of the upper high. Those that develop it weaken the high enough to gain some latitude. The ones that don't develop it have a stronger high. It will be interesting to see what the models trend on.

[Ivanhater]

Run is not finished, but 12z Canadian looks to be on board with the vigorous wave approaching the Yucatan

[Ivanhater]

Yep..12z Canadian develops it as well

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Ivanhater for these latest runs. So, they are jumping onboard now with the vigourous tropical wave now moving through the Lesser Antilles.

I also think you are on the mark with your analysis regarding the placement and strength of the upper level ridge next week and how this will all evolve. That will be a major component around this time next week.