Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

Better view of the Canadian

[Sanibel]

Not worth a new thread, but these hot temperatures must be cooking the Gulf.

[northjaxpro]

I have been lurking around the forums the past few days, and I now see that the models runs are now getting some form of consistency of showing possible development of a system in the next 7 days or so in the Bay of Campeche. It does appear that the ever persistent hot and dry upper level ridge which has been parked over the South and GOM is FINALLY showing signs of weakening and shifting eastward for the coming days. This will finally open up the GOM to hopefully provide desperate relief for many of us poor souls here in the South and Gulf Coast region.

I am watching this closely not only for the much neeed rain, but I am booked to head to New Orleans for July 1-4 for vacation and to attend a huge music festival there. Depends on the timing and elements coming together, but I recognize that it may get dicey during that time. A BIG IF at the moment of course, but definitely something I am watching closely during the next 7-10 days.

[wxman57]

Models forecast the exact same thing to be happening today/tomorrow in the Gulf from 7-10 days ago. I don't see any development out there today. Clearly, the models saw "something" in the Gulf last week, but that something was just increased moisture. That's probably the case for next week, too.

On the other hand, disturbances do tend to flare up whenever I have a long weekend planned (like the 4th of July)...

[Ivanhater]

180 hour Canadian..full blown system like the GFS

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[northjaxpro]

Models forecast the exact same thing to be happening today/tomorrow in the Gulf from 7-10 days ago. I don't see any development out there today. Clearly, the models saw "something" in the Gulf last week, but that something was just increased moisture. That's probably the case for next week, too.

On the other hand, disturbances do tend to flare up whenever I have a long weekend planned (like the 4th of July)...

Wxman57, I hope you are right. I am just hoping for uniformed broad areas of rain for many folks next week. I wouldn't mind that, even being on vacation in the Big Easy. However, I hope nothing "significant" as a deepening tropical cyclone in the GOM gets cranking during that time frame. Will B monitoring the situation like all the rest of you of course.

[srainhoutx]

Models forecast the exact same thing to be happening today/tomorrow in the Gulf from 7-10 days ago. I don't see any development out there today. Clearly, the models saw "something" in the Gulf last week, but that something was just increased moisture. That's probably the case for next week, too.

On the other hand, disturbances do tend to flare up whenever I have a long weekend planned (like the 4th of July)...

Ha. Your timing is always impeccable, wxman57.

[wxman57]

Models forecast the exact same thing to be happening today/tomorrow in the Gulf from 7-10 days ago. I don't see any development out there today. Clearly, the models saw "something" in the Gulf last week, but that something was just increased moisture. That's probably the case for next week, too.

On the other hand, disturbances do tend to flare up whenever I have a long weekend planned (like the 4th of July)...

Ha. Your timing is always impeccable, wxman57.

Typically, I can get a storm to develop, or threaten to develop, merely by mentioning that I might take a day off during hurricane season. I don't even have to put in a formal vacation request.

7-10 days ago, the Canadian forecast a hurricane in the NW Gulf for tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

Models forecast the exact same thing to be happening today/tomorrow in the Gulf from 7-10 days ago. I don't see any development out there today. Clearly, the models saw "something" in the Gulf last week, but that something was just increased moisture. That's probably the case for next week, too.

On the other hand, disturbances do tend to flare up whenever I have a long weekend planned (like the 4th of July)...

Ha. Your timing is always impeccable, wxman57.

Typically, I can get a storm to develop, or threaten to develop, merely by mentioning that I might take a day off during hurricane season. I don't even have to put in a formal vacation request.

7-10 days ago, the Canadian forecast a hurricane in the NW Gulf for tomorrow.

With the Canadian having support from the GFS and Euro to some extent, accompanied with a favorable MJO, I think this system the models are showing has an above average change imo.

[northjaxpro]

Wxman, normally, I try not to plan vacations in areas like New Orleans this time of year just for this possiblity of anything brewing in the GOM. This year has been very tough for me as my father passed away in late March. So, some friends of mine urged me to book the trip to the Big Easy back in early April just after the funeral. So, for the most part, I went against my better judgment and took the risk anyway.

Well, if something does happen to spin up in that time frame next week, I will be there to report to you guys, well, depending on the circumstances of course. But, it is still all speculation right now.

[wxman57]

With the Canadian having support from the GFS and Euro to some extent, accompanied with a favorable MJO, I think this system the models are showing has an above average change imo.

I still see nothing to indicate the models are more likely to be correct THIS time vs. last week. There isn't a significant MJO signal presently, by the way. It's quite weak and in the Indian Ocean to West Pacific. You can see the latest MJO discussion here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.ppt

Here's a PDF version:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

I'm not discounting the potential for something to flare up there outright, I'm just saying that I'm highly skeptical of the forecast given the current weak tropical wave activity in the deep tropics.

[Tireman4]

Models forecast the exact same thing to be happening today/tomorrow in the Gulf from 7-10 days ago. I don't see any development out there today. Clearly, the models saw "something" in the Gulf last week, but that something was just increased moisture. That's probably the case for next week, too.

On the other hand, disturbances do tend to flare up whenever I have a long weekend planned (like the 4th of July)...

Ha. Your timing is always impeccable, wxman57.

Typically, I can get a storm to develop, or threaten to develop, merely by mentioning that I might take a day off during hurricane season. I don't even have to put in a formal vacation request.

7-10 days ago, the Canadian forecast a hurricane in the NW Gulf for tomorrow.

Now, that is talent...LOL

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has plenty of moisture in the Westcentral Caribbean by July 1. Michael, is this a wave or is part of the Colombian Low that the Euro shows many times?

[Ivanhater]

No Luis, the image you posted is a westward moving tropical wave coming from the east.

The Euro shows the BOC disturbance in line with the GFS, Nogaps and Canadian but has a very strong high over the Gulf and suppresses it far south.

[wxman57]

The 12z ECMWF has plenty of moisture in the Westcentral Caribbean by July 1. Michael, is this a wave or is part of the Colombian Low that the Euro shows many times?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Those colored contours are 850mb wind speeds, Luis. It shows a speed maximum moving into the Caribbean next week.

[cycloneye]

Ok guys, very interesting.

[northjaxpro]

Ivan, the long range Euro you posted does seem to try to rebuild the ridge over the South and GOM as whatever leftover remains of the trough lifts out by mid-late next week.

[srainhoutx]

The Upper Ridge is a bit further N on the Euro Charts. The Gulf moisture looks to remain in place as the Upper Ridge builds N in the Southern Plains in the longer range. The HPC has taken notice:

A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD LEAD TO A
RECURRENCE OF HIGHS NEAR AND ABOVE 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE TEXAS
BIG COUNTRY AND TRANS-PECOS REGIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME REDUCTION IN HEAT ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL NOT FEEL THAT WAY AS HEAT INDICES ARE
UNLIKELY TO CHANGE.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have to agree with wxman on this one. See nothing to get me the least bit concerned about a storm in the gulf. As he said models were showing one this week around the coast and we have nothing, not even a disturbance. Also if one actually does form that far downin the bay of campeche it would more than likely head into Mexico. As I said earlier this week as long as the models keep showing a storm forming every 7-10 days eventually they will get one right, just not this week.

[Ivanhater]

Have to agree with wxman on this one. See nothing to get me the least bit concerned about a storm in the gulf. As he said models were showing one this week around the coast and we have nothing, not even a disturbance. Also if one actually does form that far downin the bay of campeche it would more than likely head into Mexico. As I said earlier this week as long as the models keep showing a storm forming every 7-10 days eventually they will get one right, just not this week.

The purpose of discussion on this possible disturbance is not to say a tropical storm will form at said location at said date and head to said city. The purpose it to identify the potential for development and discuss why the models are showing a possible storm and if it has support.