Moderate Risk, NE, Sunday 6/19 & Monday 6/20

[CrazyC83]

Hales is known to be the most aggressive forecaster when it comes to issuing PDS watches, though it really surprised me since the SPC tornado probs (10%) don't even reach the Moderate Risk threshold, and half of the watch has tornado probs of 5% (low-end slight risk) or even 2% ("See Text" level). Might be increased at 20Z though.

[CrazyC83]

VERY strong couplet. Capable of strong tornadoes for sure. Just because spring is turning to summer doesn't seem to be changing a thing.

WWUS53 KGLD 201820
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSC063-065-179-201900-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-110620T1900Z/
SHERIDAN KS-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
120 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM...
NORTHEASTERN GOVE AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...

AT 117 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF SAINT PETER...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 110.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. TAKE
COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 10010 3912 10014 3909 10014 3899 10027
3906 10040 3940 10018 3926 9993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 217DEG 15KT 3918 10021
HAIL 1.25IN
$$

PMURRAY/LOCKHART

[WeatherGuesser]

Note also that they've drastically increased the size of the MDT area.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201834Z - 202030Z

INCIPIENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OK...AND A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CONVECTION...LIKELY JUST ABOVE AN ERODING
CAP VIA IMPLIED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...HAS OCCURRED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH-SOUTH BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK COINCIDENT WITH A DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH DEMARCATED MOIST AXIS.
FURTHERMORE...A GRADUALLY INCREASING CU FIELD HAS ALSO BEEN RECENTLY
NOTED WITHIN THE HOTTER/DEEPLY MIXED AIR NEAR/WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM TOPEKA KS/NORMAN OK STILL REFLECT A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700-750 MB...BUT CONSIDERABLE
MOISTENING/COOLING HAS OCCURRED BELOW THE CAP IN EACH CASE SINCE
12Z.

AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SHIFTS ENE AND GRADUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AT LEAST SCATTERED
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK. VERY STRONG/BUT GRADUALLY BACKING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITHIN A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE A HOT BOUNDARY LAYER/RELATIVELY HIGH
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL TEND TO CURB THE RISK...A TORNADO
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER PATTERN
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBSERVATIONAL DERIVED WINDS...IMPLIES A
CONGEALING/MORE LINEAR MODE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MARKEDLY
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES/WATER LOADING.

..GUYER.. 06/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38939840 39139793 39809733 39419632 36429641 35469687
35189743 35319845 36499837 38939840

[CrazyC83]

Now we are getting REALLY serious. If this goes over a town, catastrophe.

WFUS53 KGLD 201903
TORGLD
KSC065-137-201930-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0034.110620T1903Z-110620T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 158 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTH OF HILL CITY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDMOND...DENSMORE...CALVERT AND ALMENA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3934 9984 3954 10016 3957 10016 3957 10018
3964 10018 4000 9963 3957 9962 3957 9960
3953 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 226DEG 31KT 3953 9981
HAIL 2.75IN
$$

PMURRAY/LOCKHART

[CrazyC83]

Reports from other sites: massive wedge tornado

[WeatherGuesser]

Will go between Norton and Phillipsburg, but if I were in Alma, I'd be running.

[CrazyC83]

High risk at 2000Z?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

VALID 201919Z - 202045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH
AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK EXPECTED TO PERSIST/INCREASE ESPECIALLY
FROM FAR NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.

AN IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES IS ONGOING IN
NORTHWEST KS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL CITY AREA AS OF 1915Z...WITH A
LIKELY REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT INDUCED GUST ALSO NOTED PER A RECENT 46
KT WESTERLY GUST AT HLC. AS A 991 MB ANALYZED SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN KS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...A VERY TORNADO
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IMMEDIATELY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY A SSW-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND A NEIGHBORING
WEST-EAST WARM FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEB.

IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL...AND PERHAPS OTHER
SURFACE BASED VIGOROUS/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WILL POSE AN
APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB FROM 20-22Z AND
BEYOND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF
HOLDREGE AND KEARNEY...AND NEAR/WEST OF HASTINGS INCLUDING THE
MINDEN AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A
CONCERN.

..GUYER.. 06/20/2011


ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 39439920 39510004 40979988 41979910 41949813 41449735
39979835 39439920

[CrazyC83]

Still an amazing couplet. Likely rain-wrapped and VIOLENT.

KSC137-201930-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110620T1930Z/
NORTON KS-
219 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DENSMORE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALVERT AND ALMENA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9962 3958 9977 3963 10011 3969 10010
4000 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 226DEG 31KT 3962 9968
HAIL 2.75IN
$$

PMURRAY/LOCKHART

[Bunkertor]

@ Crazy: They have launched an extra sonde. That´s rare.

[WeatherGuesser]

[CrazyC83]

It's NOT slowing down, even though the supercell seems to be cycling.

WWUS53 KGLD 201938
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSC137-202000-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110620T2000Z/
NORTON KS-
238 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF CALVERT...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMENA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 9963 3974 9987 4000 9984 4001 9979
4001 9963 4000 9962 3969 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 211DEG 34KT 3983 9963
HAIL 2.75IN
$$

PMURRAY/PIETRYCHA

[WeatherGuesser]

It either went right over Almena or just missed it. I don't know how big the town is. Stamford looks to be next.

[CrazyC83]

2000Z: No HIGH, but MDT expanded...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 201958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB...SERN
SD...WRN IA...NWRN MO...ERN KS AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NRN NORTON CNTY KS IS MOVING NEWD IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO DEEP SURFACE LOW NEARING THE KS/NEB BORDER.

18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OAX/TOP/LMN/OUN EXHIBIT A CAPPING INVERSION
BASED BETWEEN 800-700 MB. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE AND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD INTO SRN OK AND POSSIBLY
NRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND LARGE INSTABILITY FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WHERE BACKED
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AND THE MODERATE
RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THIS ASSESSMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

[CrazyC83]

Never seen a PDS Severe and a PDS Tornado at the same time before.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST OF STEPHENVILLE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 523...WW 524...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ON WRN
EDGE OF WATCH BY 22Z. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH . SUPERCELLS WILL BE INITIAL MODE BUT QUICKLY
EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH THE
SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE LINEAR MODE THAT EVOLVES BY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION BRIEF TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH MODES

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Not PDS, but has high numbers too.

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
TEKAMAH NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 523...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE DRY LINE AS CAP HAS
ABOUT ERODED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING STRONG TROUGH.
WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND 50-60KT OF SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
THE INITIAL MODE WHICH INCLUDES A VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL. STORMS WILL
GROW UPSCALE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Central Nebraska getting pounded.

WWUS53 KGID 202142
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEC019-163-202215-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-110620T2215Z/
BUFFALO NE-SHERMAN NE-
442 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN AND
NORTH CENTRAL BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANTON...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF KEARNEY...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

AT 438 PM CDT A LARGE CONE TORNADO WAS REPORTED 3 MILES EAST OF
PLEASANTON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZARD AND LITCHFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4094 9896 4089 9916 4105 9926 4106 9921
4123 9921 4124 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 164DEG 23KT 4099 9911
HAIL 1.75IN

$$

[WeatherGuesser]

Check the LSRs coming in.

[wx247]

So, I know what a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch is but what does it imply? I mean, the probabilities on it are off the charts.