Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[ronjon]

Looks like the GFS is backing off any development in the BOC. Latest runs appear to drop it and create a new disturbance in the western caribbean that rides northward into the GOM in the post-10 day time frame - so mark me down as skeptical of any development in the next 2 weeks.

[srainhoutx]

HGX took notice of the model trends and made mention in their morning AFD:

WEEKEND LOOKING DRIER AS UPPER
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER N TX PER ECMWF BUT WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN JUNE TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like the GFS is backing off any development in the BOC. Latest runs appear to drop it and create a new disturbance in the western caribbean that rides northward into the GOM in the post-10 day time frame - so mark me down as skeptical of any development in the next 2 weeks.

I'm with you, the GFS has backed off. The EURO still shows a BOC system at 216 Hours but it's been at 216 hours the past couple runs. To many false alarms so I am skeptical as well.

[HouTXmetro]

Well isn't that just lovely! The Historic Drought Continues with no releif in sight

[wxman57]

Definitely not a drought buster, just some rain for the plants/trees in southeast TX, hopefully.

[GoldenTriangle]

Rain...rain ...rain!!! We just had about 2 min. of hard rain...now nothing.

[Ivanhater]

This disturbance may not be what was hoped for; however, rain chances along the Gulf coast look promising this week. This is a definite change after the ridge has been firmly planted along the Gulf coast leading to worsening drought conditions and record highs. I'll take it.

The Gulf looks disturbed for the medium range and the GFS and Euro are still hinting at something by the end of June. Perhaps coinciding with the next MJO in phase 1 and 2 which is good for Atlantic storms.

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[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian lends its hat with the GFS and Euro around the Yucatan

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is still showing unsettled weather in the SW Gulf clear up until Cyclogenesis around the 28th -29th time frame. The only thing that has changed is a few days later than what it has been indicating of a low forming and closing off.

[Ivanhater]

The GFS is still showing unsettled weather in the SW Gulf clear up until Cyclogenesis around the 28th -29th time frame. The only thing that has changed is a few days later than what it has been indicating of a low forming and closing off.

The GFS may have been a few days early but had the right idea. The last couple of days in June look favorable for development with the MJO in phase 1 and 2 and has support from the GFS, EURO and Canadian.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues the trend for the Yucatan area. That models also suggests a robust wave in the Caribbean in the longer range.

[MGC]

Pretty impressive flow of moisture headed up out the gulf and with the upper ridge breaking down it should really increase our rain chance here in the Pass Christian desert.....MGC

[ronjon]

Gotta love the GFS long range as it comes up with some comical stuff sometimes - here's two lows in the GOM.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like the models are once again on the money again this season As long as the GFS and others are showing a system every 10-14 days and then start pushing back the timeframe maybe by the end of July they might actually get one right.

[Ivanhater]

Very strong MJO in the ATL the last days of June

[BigB0882]

What does a strong MJO mean?

[srainhoutx]

What does a strong MJO mean?

Good description from wiki...

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30–90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection [1] [2]. Rather than being a standing pattern (like ENSO) it is a traveling pattern, propagating eastwards at approximately 4 to 8 m/s, through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This overall circulation pattern manifests itself in various ways, most clearly as anomalous rainfall. This was discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian (again the comparison with ENSO is instructive, since their local effects on Peruvian fisheries were discovered long before the global structure of the pattern was recognized).

The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific (except over the region of warmer water off the west coast of Central America) but occasionally reappears at low amplitude over the tropical Atlantic and higher amplitude over the Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, 30–60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to suggest a pattern change (no dry Upper Ridge across the Gulf) across the Western Basin. That model is hinting development in the Bay of Campeche. It does appear the MJO influence will lead to an environment that would support any future development. We will see.

[Ivanhater]

The 12Z GFS continues to suggest a pattern change (no dry Upper Ridge across the Gulf) across the Western Basin. That model is hinting development in the Bay of Campeche. It does appear the MJO influence will lead to an environment that would support any future development. We will see.

12z GFS

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[Ivanhater]

Add the Canadian...most aggressive run yet



Also the Nogaps

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