GFS develops early EPAC system

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Models are suggesting a spin up in that area in the days ahead.

[Florida1118]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[KyleEverett]

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That looks like a major hurricane. GFS has it go on to landfall after the resolution reduction.

[dwsqos2]

Hmmm...And there is that well established inverse relationship between Atlantic and Eastern Pacific activity.

[srainhoutx]

The favorable MJO pulse and Kelvin wave will arrive in the EPAC first, before crossing over into the Atlantic Basin. TC genesis looks to happen by late week if the GFS and UKMET are correct.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise TC genesis this weekend. What is interesting via that model is the area of lower pressure left behind near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and some translation over to the BoC. Something to watch in the days ahead.

[srainhoutx]

HWRF run for 93L sniffing out future Adrian...

[srainhoutx]

Virtaully all the models are onboard with TC genesis near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week into the weekend at this time. The ensembles also suggest Beatiz will form as well.

[srainhoutx]

Virtaully all the models are onboard with TC genesis near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week into the weekend at this time. The ensembles also suggest Beatiz will form as well.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[dwsqos2]

Yuck.

Dear Atmosphere,

Please turn off the EPAC.

Sincerely,
dwsqos2

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WESTWARD
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[supercane]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA INTERACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Perhaps this thread should be relabeled as a general E Pac thread or spun off. Of course this may be an invest soon enough and get its own thread anyways.

[cycloneye]

Is now invest 92E.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro, GFS and Canadian suggest a weak TC forming later in the week...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS BUT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Kingarabian]

Gotta love the EPAC and the fishies that it spawns!