Disturbance in Central Atlantic

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Hurricane

Disturbance in Central Atlantic

#1 Postby Hurricane » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:53 pm

Storms popping up. There's a tropical wave associated with it.
IR:
Image
Visible:
Image
Last edited by Hurricane on Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23027
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Disturbance in Central Atlantic

#2 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:56 pm

I give it about 0.01% chance of development.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Jed
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 546
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:36 pm
Location: Cen Tex

#3 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:01 pm

No chance. Too far south and going to run into South America.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#4 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:02 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:05 pm

The only place it might have a shot is the Western Carib. in about a week and over into the BOC.
0 likes   
Top
Hurricane

#6 Postby Hurricane » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:36 pm

GFS has been very consistent with this system, tracking it into the Gulf (long-range).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23027
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#7 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:46 pm

Hurricane wrote:GFS has been very consistent with this system, tracking it into the Gulf (long-range).


I cannot track this wave into the Gulf using GFS. It takes the vorticity into South America and dissipates it within 48hrs. Tracking it along using continuity takes it into the East Pac by early next week. GFS develops the low in the SW Gulf well beyond then. It's almost certainly a bogus development. Can't trust the GFS that far out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5212
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: Disturbance in Central Atlantic

#8 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:27 am

Hurricane wrote:GFS has been very consistent with this system, tracking it into the Gulf (long-range).



I agree about the bogus development. That's okay though, because come late July early August, things are really giong to start to explode, so I'm sure we can wait.... :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: abajan, cycloneye, IsabelaWeather, MetroMike, Noots, pepecool20, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd and 139 guests