Ten U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes Reanalyzed

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

More goodies from the Hurricane Reanalysis Project. The storms are Louisiana Hurricane of 1934, Great New England Hurricane of 1938, Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, Texas Hurricane of 1945, Florida/Louisiana Hurricane of 1947, Hurricane Carol of 1954, Hurricane Edna of 1954, Hurricane Hazel 1954, Hurricane Donna of 1960 and Hurricane Gloria of 1985:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurricanes.pdf *

*This is a pdf file, so you'll need a pdf reader to view it.

[StormClouds63]

Thanks for the link. Check out the path for the 1947 hurricane into New Orleans ... a real worse-case scenario would be a Cat 4 or 5 taking that path.

[Hurricane Jed]

Wow! After looking at this it means that the 1947 Hurricane and Hurricane Donna were never even Category 5 hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

I disagree strongly with the 135 kt analysis for Gloria.

It was well-covered by Recon, and the highest flight-level winds were 126 kt at flight level. Such only supports a peak intensity of 115 kt (and that is what I would put as Gloria's peak intensity) despite its low pressure of 919mb - it isn't always a one-to-one relationship and you cannot use other assumptions when Recon is available.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thanks for the link. Check out the path for the 1947 hurricane into New Orleans ... a real worse-case scenario would be a Cat 4 or 5 taking that path.

You are most welcome, I know how interested people are in the topic here so I posted the link as soon as I found out about the new publication.

[Hurricanehink]

Actually, the paper is three years old now! It's funny how some papers stay off the radar.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Actually, the paper is three years old now! It's funny how some papers stay off the radar.

I was told by one of the authors (Chris Landsea) it was an internal paper, and wasn't published for the general public until more recently (when the findings were checked and confirmed). The paper came up when I asked the author if there was anything new about Hurricanes Carol & Edna of 1954, during an unrelated conversation a month agao.

[CrazyC83]

A few other things I would do with some of them:

Carol - The 100 kt landfall intensity seems reasonable. It was an unusually small and tight storm for the latitude, similar to Juan in 2003.

Edna - Not sure I would go all the way to 105 kt. It was much larger than Carol and the pressure was impressive but not extraordinary (Igor in Newfoundland carried 950mb as a tropical cyclone and Bob had only a slightly higher pressure as well in 1991). I'd go with 95 kt in Nantucket and 90 kt at Cape Cod.

Hazel - my guess for landfall intensity is 105 kt despite the pressure (which I estimate at landfall was 936mb). Although it had a really low pressure, it was probably behaving more like a higher-latitude storm at the time and it was an extremely large storm as well (it produced hurricane-force sustained winds in New York City while the center was near Buffalo). It probably was a Cat 4 when it was over the Gulf Stream before landfall though. My peak intensity estimate would be 115 kt, about 9 hours before landfall. After landfall, the intensities I would have for Hazel: 90/950, 75/967, 65/972, 55/980, 50/988 then 50 kt for a while. Also in the Caribbean, I think it rapidly intensified initially, weakened some then strengthened as it came into Haiti - a lot like Tomas in 2010 (minus the north-northwest deflection of Hazel).

Donna - Downgrading to Cat 3 seems reasonable at Florida mainland landfall (I estimate 105 kt with a pressure of 939mb) as the localized damage over central Florida was not nearly as intense as with Charley despite the lower pressure (although it impacted a much larger area) so the intensities over Florida should be lower, bottoming out at 65 kt (which was likely only over water in the end). I would go with 90 kt for NC landfall (pressure 954mb) and 85 kt at NY landfall (pressure 959mb). However, some of the Caribbean intensities may have been reanalyzed too low - I would estimate it had some periods of RI'ing, and do believe it was still a Cat 5 between the 932 and 941 (bottomed out around 924mb with an intensity of 140 kt). From 10/0000Z to 13/1800Z, I would put Donna at the following (landfalls between synoptic times): 110/936, 115/930, (115/930), 110/934, (105/939), 100/944, 85/955, 65/972, 65/970, 80/964, 85/958, (90/954), 85/956, 80/961, 85/959, (85/958), (80/960), 70/966, 65/973, 60/975X, 55/978X.

[HurricaneBill]

I wonder if they'll reanalyze Inez in 1966. Inez was a midget hurricane that peaked at 130KT with a pressure of 929mb. I think someone once said the flight level winds supported Category 5 strength but they were reduced too low.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if they'll reanalyze Inez in 1966. Inez was a midget hurricane that peaked at 130KT with a pressure of 929mb. I think someone once said the flight level winds supported Category 5 strength but they were reduced too low.

Flight level winds were about 165 kt in Inez, which would support 150 kt. I would go with 145 kt for Inez's peak intensity thinking they might be a bit too high.

[HurricaneBill]

Flight level winds were about 165 kt in Inez, which would support 150 kt. I would go with 145 kt for Inez's peak intensity thinking they might be a bit too high.

I wonder if Inez was similar to Felix in 2007.

Another storm I think may have been similar to Felix was Edith in 1971. Edith was also a very small hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Flight level winds were about 165 kt in Inez, which would support 150 kt. I would go with 145 kt for Inez's peak intensity thinking they might be a bit too high.

I wonder if Inez was similar to Felix in 2007.

Another storm I think may have been similar to Felix was Edith in 1971. Edith was also a very small hurricane.

I don't know a lot about the data found in Edith. I know it had a 943mb pressure in the last pass a few hours before first landfall and was bombing up to landfall, but no idea what the real wind data was. Assuming it was a small storm with a tight core at that latitude, 943mb would support about 130 kt. But it probably became stronger in the last few hours. A wild guess would be 140 kt (as HURDAT says now) with a pressure around 935mb at landfall.

[dwsqos2]

Peak 850 mb winds in Edith were 140 knots. That would suggest less than 115 knots (112 knots to be specific) assuming a standard vertical wind profile. It probably wasn't like Felix; it's intensity was probably badly overestimated using the incorrect logic that 850 mb winds=surface winds.

[CrazyC83]

Peak 850 mb winds in Edith were 140 knots. That would suggest less than 115 knots (112 knots to be specific) assuming a standard vertical wind profile. It probably wasn't like Felix; it's intensity was probably badly overestimated using the incorrect logic that 850 mb winds=surface winds.

For some reason I thought those were 700mb winds (140 kt at 700mb = 126 kt at the surface) but I wasn't sure where that number came from.

However, Felix had a wind profile that had flight-level winds lagging below surface winds (at peak intensity, its flight-level winds were only about 155 kt, and there was a surface measurement - deemed unrepresentative - of 163 kt), so who knows.

[dwsqos2]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1971.pdf

Look at page 7. "A reconnaissance plane at 5000-ft elevation measured sustained winds of 140 knots just before the center reached the coast at midday."

[CrazyC83]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1971.pdf

Look at page 7. "A reconnaissance plane at 5000-ft elevation measured sustained winds of 140 knots just before the center reached the coast at midday."

Based on that, 115 kt seems like the real intensity. That probably suggests it was not a small hurricane.

[Category 5]

Flight level winds were about 165 kt in Inez, which would support 150 kt. I would go with 145 kt for Inez's peak intensity thinking they might be a bit too high.

I wonder if Inez was similar to Felix in 2007.

Another storm I think may have been similar to Felix was Edith in 1971. Edith was also a very small hurricane.

Remember the high Ambient Pressures with Felix that kept it's pressure up? Perhaps a similar situation there even.