ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

wxman57,here is the first TCPOD and they wll be busy with 93L.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011
         WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 02/1800Z                   A. 03/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 02/1700Z                   C. 03/1000Z
       D. 28.0N 87.0W                D. 28.0N 94.0W
       E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z       E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THIS IS THE FIRST OF A DAILY MESSAGE WHICH WILL
      BE TRANSMITTED THROUGHOUT THE HURRICANE SEASON.
                      JWP



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[jdray]

Hopefully this stays weak but together for Texas to get some rain out of it.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yay! First recon of the season. Mother nature is following the calendar this year.

[setxwxgurl]

Any guess as to where this may be headed once it crosses florida

Steering flow is almost due east to west across the northern Gulf at 25-30 kts. That would take it about 100-150 miles south of the northern Gulf Coast and inland into the upper Texas coast in 48 hrs.

Thanks - I'm in Southeast Texas - we sure need the rain !

[wxman57]

Any guess as to where this may be headed once it crosses florida

Steering flow is almost due east to west across the northern Gulf at 25-30 kts. That would take it about 100-150 miles south of the northern Gulf Coast and inland into the upper Texas coast in 48 hrs.

Thanks - I'm in Southeast Texas - we sure need the rain !

The only "problem" may be that it's such a small system that it may take nearly a direct hit to give any one area some well-needed rain.

[vbhoutex]

Is there a possibility/probability of it expanding as it crosses the GOM or is it moving too fast? It will be passing over the warmer areas(N edge of the loop current?) as it heads West. Do you feel that the Upper TX coast is the best probability and that it will keep its current forward speed?

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar

[drezee]

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ550-552-570-572-011615-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0039.110601T1417Z-110601T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO CAPE CANAVERAL OUT TO 20 NM.

FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE.

FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
CAPE CANAVERAL.

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1015 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS 40 TO 60
MILES OFFSHORE THE CANAVERAL NATIONAL SEASHORE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 KNOTS.

*THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE COAST BETWEEN FLAGLER
BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL THROUGH MIDDAY.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looks like that outer squall line will get into the Tampa Bay area right about the time of our converging sea breezes, too. It's bound to be an extra wooly afternoon commute.

[MGC]

93L looks to be heading due west to me....anyway, doubt it has time to get classified before coming ashore near Daytona...lets see what happens when it gets on the gulf......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I noticed this area last night and I thought wow looks better short term than the mess in the Caribbean, how right I was. My goodness an invest with a moderate chance of development already, could be a nasty season ahead people.

[Hurricane Jed]

If it brings rain to Central Texas I will be happy.

[feederband]

Yes!!! Getting some unexpected rain...Suppose to be a 0% now 100%...

[CrazyC83]

Strongest winds I see on base velocity is 43 kt on the Jacksonville radar. That is at about 11,000 feet so it translates to about 39 kt at the surface.

[charlesw]

Strongest winds on base velocity has come down a bit.

[ronjon]

Outer squall just came through Brooksville with gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Fast moving though as it only lasted about 10 mins. Might get interesting later this afternoon, particularly if we get some heating, as the vortex crosses the peninsula.

[RL3AO]

Just looked at satellite data. I think I was able to track this back to the MCS over South Dakota/Minnesota on Memorial day.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Frank2]

With the exception of that feeder band approaching Tampa from the north, it still doesn' look like much on radar - apparently the back end of the rain is already just offshore...

Wish we had that system down here in Southern Florida - nothing like cloud cover and some needed rain...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

Frank