WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 913.2mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.2

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 26/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°00'(30.0°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

My newest update all I note why I believe the warnings are slightly off of the Models at this time.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GlWK-PO4O4[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

After reviewing the article here again, I decided to post a sat shot instead!

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave, no EWRC occurring now

NRL: 140 kts, 918 mb

[dexterlabio]

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.2N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 27.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 32.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 36.4N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 39.2N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 124.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

[GCANE]

PERFECTION

[Extratropical94]

Wow... I did expect anything but a category five from this storm.
Amazing how dangerous the tropics are even in May.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It's like the Philippine Sea forgot winter ever took place and is a follow on from Megi. Seriously impressive start to the season!

[oaba09]

My newest update all I note why I believe the warnings are slightly off of the Models at this time.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GlWK-PO4O4[/youtube]

Good video rob...Very informative as usual...

[Macrocane]

First cat 5 of the year in the WPAC and worldwide as well, last year we had to wait until October for a cat 5 in this basin. Let's see if this is a sign of things to come this season or if it's an isolated case of excellent conditions like Celia in the EPAC last year.

[dexterlabio]

Seems Songda started to turn more poleward. And nice little eye with that thick, intense eyewall. EWRC is impossible to occur as of this time.

[KWT]

Wow 140kts...very impressive system, conditions were real good but I have to admit I'm a little surprised it got quite that strong!

Track still looks broadly NW but any more decent westward jogs makes life uncomfortable, esp if it does undergo EWRC and gets larger in the next 12-18hrs.

Notice the NW quad is starting to look a little weaker and not as perfect as the other quadrants...maybe a sign this is at its peak.

Impressive whatever happens next!

ps, I think its peaking at 145kts...

[oaba09]

Typhoon "CHEDENG" continuously moves northwestward as it further intensified.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 250 km East of Casiguran, Aurora

Coordinates: 16.4°N, 124.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph

Movement: Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday evening:
140 km East of Basco, Batanes
Saturday evening:
520 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or
250 km Southwest of Okinawa, Japan

[HURAKAN]

remains very impressive looking

[AJC3]

For those of you who were confused on PAGASA forecast the last couple of days "so was I" the following article from JMA is really informative.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/221674/tech ... -forecasts

There's misleading information in this article as well as the comments.

It's inferred that PAGASA forecasters are different from other forecasting agencies in that they, unlike the others, use diagnostic (non-model) forecasting tools (e.g radar, satellite, METAR, upper-air observations) in addition to prognostic tools (i.e. model guidance). Nothing could be further from the truth.

And someone in the comments section is railing about how Katrina was a famed forecast failure for the NHC! I have to wonder what color is the sky of the planet that this person lives on.

[phwxenthusiast]

There's misleading information in this article as well as the comments.

It's inferred that PAGASA forecasters are different from other forecasting agencies in that they, unlike the others, use diagnostic (non-model) forecasting tools (e.g radar, satellite, METAR, upper-air observations) in addition to prognostic tools (i.e. model guidance). Nothing could be furthers from the truth.

And someone in the comments section is railing about how Katrina was a famed forecast failure for the NHC! I have to wonder what color is the sky of the planet that this person lives on.

seems the PAGASA head is skirting the issue or just being too overconfident... i'm not sure if you understood it there but he was asked why their track was different... he answered that the others are forecasting where the eye will go while they are taking the storm diameter into account, so there you go!

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... continues to look very impressive

[P.K.]

18Z advisories out so far:

** WTPQ20 RJTD 261800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 17.2N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 21.0N 123.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 281800UTC 26.2N 127.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 291800UTC 31.8N 133.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

---

** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY SONGDA 1102 (1102) INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC
00HR 17.2N 124.5E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR N 25KM/H
P+24HR 22.8N 124.5E 920HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 29.1N 129.8E 960HPA 38M/S
P+72HR 33.5N 138.8E 985HPA 23M/S
P+96HR 37.0N 149.9E 998HPA 16M/S=

---

** WTKO20 RKSL 261800 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261800UTC 17.2N 124.4E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 271800UTC 20.9N 124.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 281800UTC 27.4N 128.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 291800UTC 32.5N 136.9E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

---

CWB:

Typhoon SONGDA (1102)

1800UTC 26 May 2011
Center Location 17.2N 124.5E
Movement NNW 21km/hr
Minimum Pressure 920hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 55m/s
Gust 70m/s
Radius of 15m/s 220km
Radius of 25m/s 100km
Typhoon Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0600UTC 27 May 2011
Center Position 19.4N 123.8E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNW 21km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 80km
24 hours valid at:
1800UTC 27 May 2011
Center Position 21.7N 124.0E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NORTH 21km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
36 hours valid at:
0600UTC 28 May 2011
Center Position 24.3N 125.4E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NNE 27km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 205km
48 hours valid at:
1800UTC 28 May 2011
Center Position 27.0N 127.6E
Vector to 48 HR Position
NE 31km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 280km
72 hours valid at:
1800UTC 29 May 2011
Center Position 31.6N 135.0E
Vector to 72 HR Position
NE 37km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 490km
96 hours valid at:
1800UTC 30 May 2011
Center Position 35.8N 144.9E
Vector to 96 HR Position
ENE 43km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 600km
120 hours valid at:
1800UTC 31 May 2011
Extratropical Low