WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[oaba09]

It's interesting to note that PAGASA's track is almost similar to their track for AERE...

[oaba09]

Still a STS per JMA



STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 24 May 2011
<Analyses at 24/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 25/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N26°00'(26.0°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 950km(500NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA not budging at all, interesting...

[ManilaTC]

Actually none of em are budging... reminds me of TY FENGSHEN/FRANK in 2008, wherein models remain for days giving a recurvature scenario... storm hit land then recurved in the middle of visayas into Luzon and Metro Manila.

[climateconcern23]

If Songda continues its direction then BICOL is in grave of danger.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[ManilaTC]

If Songda continues its direction then BICOL is in grave of danger.

Where in the beautiful country of ours are you at, man?

[ManilaTC]

If the storm does not go Northwest by sundown today, then we are in for something here. I have this gut feeling...

Typhoon sense is tingling...

[HURAKAN]

Latest closeup

[rdhdstpchld]

Can anyone point to a sight where you can watch the sat loop from start to current position? I want to show my kids how it develops, moves, etc. Thanks!

[HURAKAN]

Can anyone point to a sight where you can watch the sat loop from start to current position? I want to show my kids how it develops, moves, etc. Thanks!

Here you go!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP042011

[rdhdstpchld]

Can anyone point to a sight where you can watch the sat loop from start to current position? I want to show my kids how it develops, moves, etc. Thanks!

Here you go!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=WP042011

Thanks much, Hurakan!!

[HURAKAN]

eye becoming better defined

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 25 May 2011
<Analyses at 25/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E123°05'(123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[oaba09]

Moving W slowly

[oaba09]

Interesting article below...

"Chedeng moves eratically"

Source: http://www.voxbikol.com/article/chedeng ... rratically

[ManilaTC]

This seems to be a problem, probable reason why Chedeng/Songda is tracking West-WNW right now

[ManilaTC]

Also this one...

[oaba09]

Might be a wobble but I think it's starting to move WNW again....

[HURAKAN]

90 knots



WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 28.9N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 33.3N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 127.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z.//
NNNN