GFS is saying game on

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ameriwx2003
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GFS is saying game on

#1 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 5:45 pm

If the GFS is correct ( we have seen this before) Things are about to heat up. It looks like this time things are coming together for storms to get going and strengthen. Wxman57, I hope you enjoyed your day off, it may be awhile before your next one:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 24, 2003 5:49 pm

The African Wave's vorticity is absolutely unbelievable - its off the charts - if this one doesn't go, then something is definitely wrong ...

SF
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#3 Postby OtherHD » Sun Aug 24, 2003 5:58 pm

Didn't the GFS say this LAST week???
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#4 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 6:05 pm

SF... agreed.. I think this time the head faking is over and the season is just fine, the talk of a slow season will soon be forgotten:):)
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 24, 2003 6:09 pm

Just saw the GFS ensembles and the Canadian Ensembles ...

Canadian Ensembles are frightening at 144 hrs...

6 of the 12 depict a GOM storm and 4 depicts a SE coast storm with one being a HUGE storm off the SE coast (as well as a GOM storm)

Image
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 24, 2003 6:13 pm

OtherHD wrote:Didn't the GFS say this LAST week???


Yep, and the week before in the MR/LR ... just like in the winter when it advertises cold air, it usually takes a couple of weeks before it finally happens...IMO, it's a persistence thing with the Good for S... Model.

FWIW, all the globals are picking up on the African Wave ... not just the GFS.

SF
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#7 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 6:22 pm

SF.. You made a good point, its not just the GFS picking up on the ramp up in tropical development:):) It is that time of the year:):)
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#8 Postby Stephanie » Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:19 pm

Going from Day 8 and skipping to Day 13, it looks like the GFS has that African wave just sitting in the same spot for 5 DAYS. Is it me or is that storm not one in the same? It then takes it out to sea.

At any rate, watch out SE coast and GOM! :o
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:21 pm

The cloud tops are approaching -90ºC ... and has held together remarkedly...
Image

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html
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#10 Postby Stephanie » Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:27 pm

That is VERY scary looking! There haven't been any others that have looked like that coming off of the African coast yet.

This is the one that the models think will bomb and head to the SE coast right?
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#11 Postby wx247 » Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:29 pm

Wow. :o Impressive sat. pic Storms. It will be interesting to see what happens once this thing emerges over the water soon.
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#12 Postby DelStormLover » Sun Aug 24, 2003 7:53 pm

I see shades of Donna....
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#13 Postby Lindaloo » Sun Aug 24, 2003 9:23 pm

I definitely do not like that first frame up there. This all is just impossible.
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JetMaxx

#14 Postby JetMaxx » Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:13 am

One point I'd like to make....the GFS keeps forecasting this progged monster to recurve east of the U.S. -- but at this range, that forecast track could just as easily be right into South Carolina or across South Florida into the GOM...

We have a difficult time forecasting accurate tracks at 72 and 96 hours...a forecast map 10-12 days out could be off by 1000 miles or more...

This system has all the earmarkings of a monster hurricane....and the sea surface temperatures are nice and toasty from the African Coast westward (+1 to 2°C above normal in the Cape Verde breeding area)....it could be one to remember.
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ColdFront77

#15 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Aug 25, 2003 2:56 am

I agree... this year like every year as we are in the Cape Verde Season and specially at this moment,
sixteen days before the peak of the season, on September 10th. This area of convection looks impressive
and bears watching.
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#16 Postby Colin » Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:31 am

Ohhh man...we need to REALLY watch this thing EXTREMELY closely......
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