Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[bvigal]

Wow, more violent weather! Has anyone noticed that Joplin is under a both a flood warning and a flash flood warning? As if things weren't bad enough, and expecting more rough weather!

I read a quote from a pastor's wife yesterday that said (paraphrasing) "I'll never make fun of the sirens again, have plenty times before."

So maybe a "cry wolf" syndrome...? If people think every time the siren sounds they should get hit, then they need educating. More than likely, as the woman indicates, it is just complacency!

You know what we didn't have 30 years ago? Giant 'warehouse stores'. I will be interested to hear how many of the fatalities happened at Home Depot, Walmart, etc.

An AP report out of KC outlet this morning claimed there are still 130 persons unaccouted for. {{{{shiver}}}} Definitely need to continue to pray for these people, the waiting and wondering, with more storms coming through, must be agony!

[CrazyC83]

Extremely dangerous day likely. If the cells get going well west of I-35, they will hit OKC, Dallas (if the cap breaks there) and Wichita during the afternoon rush hour - an absolutely horrifying scenario.

[srainhoutx]

I'm very concerned for the OKC area this morning. Parameters suggests a very rough afternoon/evening ahead. I would not be surprised to see the High Risk shifted a bit S later today as well. Stay Safe Folks!

[Extratropical94]

This year alone across the US 481 persons have been killed by tornadoes. The last time fatalities from tornadoes was this high was in 1953 (519)

This is not a forecast in any way and I hope and wish the best for all of you out there in a path of a tornado, but I fear that the 1953 record will not survive this year.

[CrazyC83]

This year alone across the US 481 persons have been killed by tornadoes. The last time fatalities from tornadoes was this high was in 1953 (519)

This is not a forecast in any way and I hope and wish the best for all of you out there in a path of a tornado, but I fear that the 1953 record will not survive this year.

I fear the record will not survive past today.

[Texas Snowman]

I fear the record will not survive past today.

Crazy, I'm afraid you may be right.

Three other high risk days so far this year. They resulted in hundreds of tornadoes across the Mid-South, the Carolinas, and the Deep South. And they resulted in hundreds of fatalities as well.

Sunday's outbreak wasn't even on a high risk day and 120 or so people - so far - have been confirmed dead.

I've never seen ANYTHING like this year's spring severe weather season. It's like watching the 2005 hurricane season unfold, just tornadoes in the heartland this time.

Back about a decade ago, I thought we might be past the historically high death tolls caused by hurricanes and tornadoes a century ago. Too much warning, too much information, too much technology.

Sadly, Katrina, April 27th, and now Joplin have taught me otherwise.

[snoopj]

Per CNN, Gov. Jay Nixon confirms 118 now dead from Joplin tornado.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm very concerned for the OKC area this morning. Parameters suggests a very rough afternoon/evening ahead. I would not be surprised to see the High Risk shifted a bit S later today as well. Stay Safe Folks!

While I'm not sure the high risk area will be shifted southward, Dallas and the Red River Valley where I live are VERY MUCH under the gun IMO.

IMO, Dallas is living on borrowed time before a violent EF3, EF4, or EF5 hits this megaopolis. If it does so at the wrong time of day, the results could be staggering.

Imagine the Joplin tornado in Dallas at rush hour.

I hope that NEVER happens.

[Texas Snowman]

Per CNN, Gov. Jay Nixon confirms 118 now dead from Joplin tornado.

Given the amount of rubble and severity of the strike, not to mention the bad weather hampering search and rescue operations, I would be surprised if the final death toll does not rise higher, perhaps even quite a bit higher.

[bvigal]

This year alone across the US 481 persons have been killed by tornadoes. The last time fatalities from tornadoes was this high was in 1953 (519)

This is not a forecast in any way and I hope and wish the best for all of you out there in a path of a tornado, but I fear that the 1953 record will not survive this year.

I fear the record will not survive past today.

Two records for 1953 were broken yesterday when Joplin fatality count went over 115.
Deadliest TORNADOES ever recorded
DATE LOCATION(S) DEATHS
1 18 Mar 1925 Tri-State (MO/IL/IN) 695
2 06 May 1840 Natchez MS 317
3 27 May 1896 St. Louis MO 255
4 5 Apr 1936 Tupelo MS 216
5 5 Apr 1936 Gainesville GA 203
6 9 Apr 1947 Woodward OK 181
7 24 Apr 1908 Amite LA, Purvis MS 143
8 12 Jun 1899 New Richmond WI 117
new 11 May 2011 Joplin MO 116
9 8 Jun 1953 Flint MI 115
10 11 May 1953 Waco TX 114

[bvigal]

Per CNN, Gov. Jay Nixon confirms 118 now dead from Joplin tornado.

Given the amount of rubble and severity of the strike, not to mention the bad weather hampering search and rescue operations, I would be surprised if the final death toll does not rise higher, perhaps even quite a bit higher.

Almost assured it will go up, as I posted earlier, "An AP report out of KC outlet this morning claimed there are still 130 persons unaccouted for."

[CrazyC83]

Tulsa is definitely playing up the threat, and rightfully so. Even if this busts, we are in a situation that we need to be better safe than sorry.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
517 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...DANGEROUS FLOODING ONGOING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OR
EVEN VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR
SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SEVERE VERY
QUICKLY. FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR LONG
LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUING LATE INTO THE EVENING.

A CRITICAL FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE AREA OF HIGHEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVING OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING MAY PUSH THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND IF THIS HAPPENS... THE HIGHEST RISK AREA MAY NEED TO
BE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH LATER UPDATES.

IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE
FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RESCUE AND RECOVERY EFFORTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BRING MORE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
STORMS AFTER THAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

[CrazyC83]

I fear the record will not survive past today.

Crazy, I'm afraid you may be right.

Three other high risk days so far this year. They resulted in hundreds of tornadoes across the Mid-South, the Carolinas, and the Deep South. And they resulted in hundreds of fatalities as well.

Sunday's outbreak wasn't even on a high risk day and 120 or so people - so far - have been confirmed dead.

I've never seen ANYTHING like this year's spring severe weather season. It's like watching the 2005 hurricane season unfold, just tornadoes in the heartland this time.

Back about a decade ago, I thought we might be past the historically high death tolls caused by hurricanes and tornadoes a century ago. Too much warning, too much information, too much technology.

Sadly, Katrina, April 27th, and now Joplin have taught me otherwise.

The next record is 552 from 1936, then the all-time record of 794 from 1925. I hope that record doesn't end up in danger!

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241537Z - 241700Z

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO NW KS AND SW
NEB BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -14C TO 16C
RANGE ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A HAIL THREAT
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. AS THE CONVECTION INCREASES IN
COVERAGE...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF A LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011


ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40500089 40630265 40090388 39420456 38700422 38380280
39520078 40500089

[CrazyC83]

Greatest threat for Joplin I would think would be this evening.

[CrazyC83]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAHOMA... TO
PAULS VALLEY... TO CHICKASHA... TO CHEROKEE. THERE IS ALSO A
MODERATE RISK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM HENRIETTA TEXAS... TO HINTON... TO ALVA. AND... THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ARCHER
CITY TEXAS... TO GRANDFIELD... TO WEATHERFORD... TO FREEDOM.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE... STRONG... LONG-TRACK TORNADOES IN
THE HIGH RISK AREA. DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... POSSIBLY LARGER THAN
BASEBALLS... AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RISK AREAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL... AND ALL
EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO MAINTAIN A HIGH STATE
OF READINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY... AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER. PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND POSSIBLY LASTING
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. PEOPLE IN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY AND LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR THE RED RIVER
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE STORMS THAT GENERATED THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT... THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE SPRING...
LOCATED OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING... WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
AND WILL PUNCH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE
SURFACE LOW ALSO WILL BECOME VERY INTENSE FOR LATE MAY. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY... WHICH WILL DRAW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD OVER TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON... BY WHICH TIME A DRY LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST
TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. A CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT IS LIKELY TO PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS UP TO THAT TIME... BUT LIFTING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON... PROBABLY AROUND 3 TO 5
PM. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS... AND STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ALOFT... THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS... AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ONE OR MORE LARGE
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT... BUT
SHOULD SHIFT INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HIGH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DRY
LINE WILL LEAD TO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER FOR FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

SUSTAINED WINDS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH... WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH... OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. BLOWING DUST ALSO MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA... BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOW. THERE
ALSO WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON TODAY.
THERE ALSO WILL LIKELY BE A FEW UNSCHEDULED UPDATES... TO PROVIDE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE INFORMATION AS THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.

$$

24

[CrazyC83]

At this point, I would expect the Tornado Watch - almost certainly going to be PDS with very high numbers - around 1 to 3 pm.

[RL3AO]

Probably a 95/90 PDS.

[CrazyC83]

Probably a 95/90 PDS.

It will likely come out well in advance of the first activity and last a long time. In this situation, every weapon in the arsenal needs to be brought out.

I would personally shift the High Risk somewhat south, extend down to near DFW and remove from central Kansas.

[charlesw]

I am wondering if we will see a >95/>95 PDS again today