Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[Scorpion]

Based on what's happened this year, I have a very bad feeling about a major city being slammed.

[RL3AO]

NAM for Wichita tomorrow evening. VERY scary.

[Texas Snowman]

From a Reed Timmer tweet a few moments ago:

@reedtimmerTVN: " Tomorrow looks like historic tornado outbreak in KS-OK."

[Texas Snowman]

Based on what's happened this year, I have a very bad feeling about a major city being slammed.

I hope not.

But if an EF3 or EF4 or Lord forbid an EF5 were to ever roll through Dallas/Fort Worth at rush hour...it staggers the imagination.

[HurricaneBill]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY[/youtube]

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like as many as 30 homes were destroyed and injuries occurred from a possible tornado this evening in Stewart County, Tennessee:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 6&source=0

[Dave]

In for a few minutes...we have damage across central & northern Ripley county Indiana. Just finished initial damage assessment run through all county & state roads and it looks like straight line winds in most areas. Trees, power lines and power outages across 75% of the county right now. Possible touchdown near Napoleon Indiana with NWS KILN Wilmington checking that area during daylight hours tomorrow. I know we have 2 barns on a road right now, multiple houses with trees on them across the area and rows of trees down in other places. At this time there have been no injuries reported yet. Cell communications & phone lines are out in many areas so working through amateur radio to move some of the information when needed. Mostly it's in spots across this county but still a lot of damage.

A tornado warning was issued for the center of the county and since I don't have a basement here I made a 3 minute run to a friends house south of town. Standing on her deck I heard the winds coming....huge roar like a freight train but never saw any funnel clouds at all so it had to have been the 70+ mph winds or a funnel buried in the wall of water that hit with the winds. Made a dive for the basement as 2 60 foot trees dropped around her house. All safe...tired.....but I'll never forget that roar.

Make that 50% of the county now w/o power...new update just came in.

[Dave]

And I'm going to sleep...just to see what it feels like. Back on Wednesday.

[WeatherGuesser]

There was a freakin' tornado warning in the Lehigh Valley of PA - that's just south of the Poconos! What the heck is going on with this weather??

There have been 2 or 3 more in PA this evening so far.

[Florida1118]

Just so everyone in the ravaged/threatened areas know, I and probably other people are following this but I dont wanna clog the thread because I dont have anything to important contribute to it. Im sure everyone on here is holding you guys in the line of fire in their thoughts. I know I am at least.

[TwisterFanatic]

HIGH RISK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND WWD INTO THE PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
ERN CANADA...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM -- ACCOMPANIED BY
70-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET -- IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE KS VICINITY -- WITH A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET AROUND
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
CANADA...MOVING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
BECOMING MORE WASHED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WITH TIME.
FARTHER W...A LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD/NEWD
ACROSS KS/OK...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW DEEPENS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL TX AND A COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND SEWD ACROSS SRN KS/ERN OK AND INTO AR. THIS
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOCUSED ON KS/OK/WRN
AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

....CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SEVERAL LARGE/STRONG
TORNADOES
A IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE POWERFUL
UPPER JET EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN KS AND NEB AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A CAPPED WARM SECTOR HINDERS STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
EWD SPREAD OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE WARM SECTOR
WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH 100 MB MIXED-LAYER
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AND
INTO WRN AR E OF THE LOW/DRYLINE.

AS THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM EMERGE...A
SLOWLY WEAKENING CAP SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON...FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO CENTRAL TX NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. WITH MODERATE/BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW VEERING AND INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO SWLY AT 50 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY
AS THE STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS KS/OK INTO WRN AR AND THEN
LATER INTO WRN MO.

WHILE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG THE DRYLINE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION/CAPPING BECOME REESTABLISHED...WIDESPREAD STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS KS/ERN OK/MO/AR. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE INTO NEB/IA AND VICINITY...ALONG WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING
SEVERE THREAT.

...NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WWD INTO THE OH/TN/MID MS
VALLEYS...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...AND AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AWAY FROM LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE BELT OF STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF THE OH
RIVER...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ONGOING BOW APPROACHING
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ATTM. OVERALL...EXPECT BROAD/WIDESPREAD
ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR AND SE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 05/24/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

[WeatherGuesser]

And a Moderate for Day 2, Wednesday:

SPC AC 240546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AFTN AND EVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES AGAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL
FORM AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE UPPER VORTEX ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA...AND AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST...ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG ZONAL JET.
AS THE PACIFIC IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND IN NEGATIVELY TILTED
FASHION ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND GREAT BASIN...AND A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE CANADIAN VORTEX TURNS EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC...THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STALL. MOVEMENT MAY STILL BE A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS APPEARS TO BE A SLOW EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD MIGRATION INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION
MAY OCCUR...WITH SOME SHARPENING OF TROUGHING TO ITS SOUTH...AS
RIDGING CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS REMAINS STRONG.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FILLING... WITH
DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS WEAKENING...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. SEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR
70F...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO LARGE CAPE BENEATH RESIDUAL STEEP MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL
REMAIN MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE REMNANT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET CORE DEVELOPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW/TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW...A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR EARLY DAY STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS
OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE STRUCTURE MAY PROVIDE ONE
LATE AFTERNOON FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

A LONGER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORM
DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS MORE CERTAIN...WITH A SIZABLE WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG PROBABLE
FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING
INCREASINGLY LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AS
PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW REINTENSIFIES TO AROUND 40+ KTS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR
CLASSIC TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU. HOWEVER...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...CERTAINLY SEEM
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE THE
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT OCCURS AS ACTIVITY GROWS
UPSCALE INTO A CONSOLIDATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS
LATTER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...AND MAY LINGER DEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
SLOW NET EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

..KERR.. 05/24/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

[GCANE]

Oklahoma City NAM forecast is just plain wicked. Almost like AL outbreak except here it's even higher lapse rate.

Wind speeds in the boundary layer maybe 10 to 15 knots less, but once above that its a huge jump in speed and helicity.

[GCANE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL DEVELOP TODAY... BOTH WITH THE HIGH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

STRONG UPPER TROF OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA IS BEGINNING ITS MOVE
TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS TO COME
OUT AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING... ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KNOT 500 MB JET NOSING INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A 110 KNOT 300 MB JET INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF TEXAS. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM... SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TO ABOUT 992 MB ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE IN TIME FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT MOST LIKELY TO NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF THE US-81 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACES IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA /INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA/ AT HIGH RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SEE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RAISING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG
WARNING... AND EXTENDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ZONES EAST TO WILBARGER AND
BAYLOR. INFORMATION FROM THE STATE FORESTRY SERVICE INDICATE THAT
SUFFICIENT GREENING MAY HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
THAT RED FLAG MAY NOT BE NECESSARY THERE... BUT HAVE INCLUDED FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE EXTREMELY LOW RH EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.

STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED... BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH THE POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting column on today's ingredients:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-05-23

[snoopj]

Tweet from local KC news source, apparently from a 6am briefing by the Missouri Department of Public Safety:

Jasper County EOC reports fatality count in #Joplin has risen to 117.

Link to briefing - http://www.sema.dps.mo.gov/newspubs/SRT ... =N09110049

[brunota2003]

What a shame...an EF4 tornado that had a damage path of only 7 miles long...killed over 115 people. That is an incredibly short path, and it happened to fall right over a city!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_survey

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff concerning the Joplin tornado and the historical perspective:

Less than a month after one of the worst tornado outbreaks in US history across the southern US, the single highest death toll from a tornado in over 60 years then strikes Joplin, MO.

Unlike the Alabama tornadoes on April 27th which were powerful and on the ground for hundreds of miles, the Joplin tornado was fairly short in length (6 miles), but was extreme strong (high end EF 4 rating with surface winds estimated at 198mph. The tornado was produced from a supercell thunderstorms that crossed into the state from NE OK, and was heavily photographed (chased) by multiple chasers. Strong circulation was noted on both radar and by spotters southwest of Joplin which resulted in the issuance of a tornado warning 20 minutes prior to the tornado entering the city. The small tornado grew rapidly to over 3/4ths of a mile wide upon entering the city and produced a large damage path of 6 miles by 3/4th to 1 miles wide across the central/southern part of the town. Roughly 30-45% of the town was leveled an estimated 2000 homes destroyed. The tornado struck the Regional Hospital causing extensive damage to a well built structure (EF 4 damage) and 6 fatalities. It then destroyed the high school a strongly built structure (high end EF 4 damage) and the local Wal Mart and Home Depot. As with the Alabama tornadoes debris from the Regional Hospital (X-rays) were lofted well into the storm and carry over 70 miles to the NE by the updrafts.

Once again as with the Alabama tornadoes in April warnings were in place well in advance of the tornado and the town’s siren system did go off. From those interviewed on the news most residents did the correct actions of taking cover in either basements of interior rooms, but as stated after the Alabama tornadoes there is little chance of surviving an EF 4/5 tornado unless underground.

The US has been very unfortunate this year in the fact that strong violent tornadoes have struck highly populated areas resulting in tremendous damages and high loss of life. Regardless of the location (tornado alley) or elsewhere anytime you have a powerful tornado impact an urban type area there is going to be significant damage. We have been very lucky in the past several decades that tornadoes have impacted small towns or mainly rural areas.

Risks are faced in even larger urban areas such as Oklahoma City, Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago, St Louis, Kansas City, Little Rock, some of these cities have been struck before with strong but narrow tornadoes, but the risk is there for large powerful tornadoes to impact these large urban areas.

2 of the top 10 deadliest tornado days in US history have happened this year:
· April 27, 2011 (Ala., Tenn., Ga., Miss., Va.): 315
· April 3, 1974 ("Super Outbreak"): 307
· April 11, 1965 ("Palm Sunday Outbreak"): 260
· March 21, 1952: 202
· June 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich., etc.): 142
· May 11, 1953 (Waco, Tex, etc.): 127
· Feb. 21, 1971: 121
· May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo...Mpls./St. Paul, Minn.): 117· May 25, 1955 (Udall, Kan., etc.): 102
· June 9, 1953 (Worcester, Mass.): 90
Top 10 deadliest Single Tornado:
· Mar. 18, 1925 (Tri-State Tornado): 695
· May 6, 1840 (Natchez, Miss.): 317
· May 27, 1896 (St. Louis, Mo.): 255
· Apr. 5, 1936 (Tupelo, Miss.): 216
· Apr. 6, 1936 (Gainesville, Ga.): 203
· Apr. 9, 1947 (Woodward, Okla.): 181
· Apr. 24, 1908 (Amite, La., Purvis, Miss.): 143
· Jun. 12, 1899 (New Richmond, Wisc.): 117
· May 22, 2011 (Joplin, Mo.): 116· Jun. 8, 1953 (Flint, Mich.): 115

Notice the dates of the events were all prior to advanced warnings systems such as radar and sirens until 2011.

This year alone across the US 481 persons have been killed by tornadoes. The last time fatalities from tornadoes was this high was in 1953 (519)

[GCANE]

HRRR is showing development of a QLCS near OK City.

Large MCS in KS and another in TN.

KS could be very potent with high helicity and strong CAPE infeed.

[Bunkertor]

Area concerned extended N and E.





SPC AC 241254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
FROM N TX N/NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VLYS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS
AND OZARKS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

POTENT UPR TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS WILL FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS BY THIS
EVE AS ASSOCIATED BAND OF 75 KT MID LVL FLOW SWEEPS E/NE ACROSS THE
SRN PLNS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL KS TONIGHT/EARLY WED
AS THE SPEED MAX/VORT LOBE ROTATE NE ACROSS THE OZARKS. AT THE
SFC...LOW NOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SHOULD UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE INTO S CNTRL KS THIS EVE...AND
CONTINUES N/NE INTO CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE...FLOW AT ALL
LVLS SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS
AND OZARKS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SETUP STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCTD STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
ABOUT 21Z IN AREA OF STRONG SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE
EXTENDING S FROM PANHANDLE SFC LOW. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD...DEEP EML...AND RATHER RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS REGION WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS. ARRIVAL OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/UVV WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SHOULD FOSTER
MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY OR BY EARLY EVE.

ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR POSSIBLE STORM
INTERFERENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT IN HIGH/MDT RISK
AREA...SETUP STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST FEW LONG-LIVED
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND
STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC VEERING DUE TO WWD POSITION OF SFC LOW AND
SLIGHT NEG TILT OF UPR VORT...POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL/ERN/NRN OK.
WEAK W-E BOUNDARY NOW INVOF THE RED RVR SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD
LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY SERVE AS A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND/OR ENHANCE LOW LVL HELICITY...OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL/ER OK LATER TODAY.

WITH TIME THE KS/OK/N TX STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE
SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A COMPLEX QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NE INTO PARTS
OF MO AND AR LATER THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH AN EXPANDING
THREAT FOR DMGG WIND IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR
HAIL/TORNADOES. A PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR PERHAPS NEW
STORMS...MAY AFFECT THE LWR OH VLY REGION BY 12Z WED.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MCS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO ESE ACROSS
CNTRL KS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS FEATURE MAY SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL/ERN KS LATER TODAY.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO VA/NC NOW THROUGH THIS AFTN...
ONGOING LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS NOW OVER ERN KY/TN APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTED IN PART BY UPR IMPULSE THAT CROSSED THE SRN PLNS
YESTERDAY. AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF IT...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A N-S ORIENTED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.
STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
PER GSO 12Z SOUNDING SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR DMGG WIND. OTHER
STRONG/SVR STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE MCS ALONG LEE TROUGH IN SE
VA/ERN NC.

...OH VLY TO MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN...
ONGOING SHOWERS/SCTD TSTMS MAY BE JOINED POCKETS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN CANADIAN UPR TROUGH. WHILE THE BELT OF
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN S OF THE OH RVR...
AMPLE FLOW WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THAT MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/24/2011