WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[StormingB81]

http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/5-day.html

WOW! In the 2 years I have never seen Kadena weather page do this until we were at TCCOR 3 but they already put typhoon in the forecast for saturday...although right now they put winds at 35G50 I am sure that number will go much higher when the time comes closer.

Well in the typhoon notes they pout in the say we shall expect 75 knot winds gusting to 110 knots

[Infdidoll]

Infdiddoll...I do got to give it to you..good job on posting latest on kadena page...unfortunatly we al lknow they will wait till the last minute

I know! I hate that! I have been posting on there because I know lots of people go out of town for Memorial Day weekend. I had a friend who had plans to leave on Sunday. I don't know why they wait so long to let people know. 24 hours before, they finally raise the TCOR and people are like, "What? There's a typhoon? Seriously?" and mayhem ensues. Being that there is a holiday weekend coming up, they should let people know sooner in case they happen to be gone so they can at least secure their stuff before they leave.

[oaba09]

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 24 May 2011
<Analyses at 24/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE310km(170NM)
SW240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 25/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N24°40'(24.7°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 950km(500NM)

[StormingB81]

I know typhoon hunter said one of his friends does that typhoon 200 website....great site might I add..they already have it as a typhoon which I am sure ones everyone does there new warning everyone will have it as a typhoon it is really starting to look good now..here is where I think we will see the winds really pick up

[KWT]

Its probably for the best this system strengthen at a decent clip now, will reduce the threat to Luzon...

Mind uyou its going to be difficult for it to avoid any island given the way the track is forecasted to go, plus it could be a hefty ET system by the time it reaches Japan.

[StormingB81]

Well I am already prepared with supplies, batteries and everything else..only because I will not fight the lines at the store. If this does hit at the forecasted strength it could be the biggest storm I have every been in...biggest winds from a typhoon I have been through was 90 mph winds gusting to like 110...

[ManilaTC]

Well I am already prepared with supplies, batteries and everything else..only because I will not fight the lines at the store. If this does hit at the forecasted strength it could be the biggest storm I have every been in...biggest winds from a typhoon I have been through was 90 mph winds gusting to like 110...

Haha, cause almost all storms before it gets to Okinawa gets eaten by the Baroclinic zone rare for a STY type to get to Okinawa.
Imagine if you experienced what we have: Angela 1995, Xangsane 2008, etc...

[ManilaTC]

Is it my eyes or the storm did move west over the last 3 hrs?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Is it my eyes or the storm did move west over the last 3 hrs?

Yeah JMA 09z position update seems to suggest that.

Off topic, Okinawa can get hit by extremely strong typhoons from July through September. However given how early in the season it is I find it very unlikely if Songda passes nearby it'll be at full strength, most likely a strong ET-transitioning storm! SSTs up there are much cooler than off the Philippines right now.

[oaba09]

Is it my eyes or the storm did move west over the last 3 hrs?

Yup, it's been moving west in the last couple of hours based on the sat loops...JMA's latest update seems to also indicate that...

[KWT]

If it has moved westwards it may just be stair-stepping its way on a general WNW heading, will have to see how long that is maintained.

[Typhoon Hunter]

If it has moved westwards it may just be stair-stepping its way on a general WNW heading, will have to see how long that is maintained.

I agree, the general track so far has been WNW stair step which isn't unusual!

[rdhdstpchld]

Ok, so if this is the case, and it comes up the west side of Okinawa, does anyone have any guesses as to which side of the storm will be hitting us? I'm a neophyte here, but I do know that depending on which side of the storm hits -- well, can make a big difference; last year we had a big storm, but the weaker side blew across Oki -- of course, that was on the eastern coast...does which side of the island make any difference? Again, please humor me...I'm learning...

Thanks!

It's far too early to talk about any specifics regarding Okinawa since the storm is potentially still 5+ days away. However it would be worse for Okinawa if a storm passed close by on the western side of the island since it would then be in the front right quad.

Thanks Rob - that's exactly what I was wondering...and yes, too early indeed, but the "what ifs" are half the fun!!!

[oaba09]

The area covered by this system is amazing....

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good evening everyone, got the night watch right now so been coming on rather late here. Glad my analysis on the stream lines helps out by the way!

On that note still think the storm will clip NE Luzon around Aparri but Okinawa in the cross hairs. Not only the stream link analysis depicts this but the model consensus seems pretty spot on. According to the website Kadena is still in no TC COR.

http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tccor.htm




Last it looks like the dry air entrainment has begin to weaken, thus intensification more likely here in the next 12.. Some of my thoughts all!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[oaba09]

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 24 May 2011
<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E129°20'(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE310km(170NM)
SW240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°35'(13.6°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Infidoll, I think you were saying earlier Kadena is in TC COR 3, where are you getting that info?

[cycloneye]

JTWC Upgrades to Typhoon

But the title of thread remains as Severe Tropical Storm until the official agency (JMA) upgrades.

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 31.1N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z,
250900Z AND 251500Z.

[Anonymous_daw]

Good afternoon (PH time) to everyone, from the graphics/forecasts that I'm seeing here, does it mean that it's almost impossible for Songda to hit Metro Manila? If so, can it still make a strong impact (in terms of wind/rain) on the Manila by tomorrow or Thursday even if Songda wont hit it directly? TIA

Based on the most recent models, It's unlikely that metro manila will receive a direct hit....We'll still experience cloudy weather, light to moderate wind, and possibly some rain but that's pretty much it...Then again, nothing is impossible when it comes to these things...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

Thanks! I really hope that we'll only experience light showers here and I also hope that it wouldn't cause any damage to other areas