WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[oaba09]

LATEST

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthDadeFish]

Really starting to look good on visible. I think RI is looking likely...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Really starting to look good on visible. I think RI is looking likely...

Here we go! Deep convection really wrapping around the eye now very quickly! TY at 06z update I'd imagine!

[HURAKAN]

24/0232 UTC 12.2N 130.6E T4.5/4.5 SONGDA -- West Pacific

Jumped 1.0, from 3.5 to 4.5

[HURAKAN]

Latest BD

[Infdidoll]

If it does graze NE Luzon, the track from then on could be very similar to TS Aere, which also went right over Okinawa. Aere was severely weakened crossing Northern Luzon and you wouldn't even have known it was a tropical storm crossing Okinawa. The mountains of NE Luzon nearly killed Aere. Wondering how much that will affect Songda's intensity.

[ManilaTC]

783
TXPN24 KNES 240319
SIMWIR

A. 04W (SONGDA)

B. 24/0232Z

C. 12.2N

D. 130.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 5.0 BASED ON LG EYE WITH W RING EMBEDDED IN LG.
MET IS 5.0 WITH PT OF 4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT. POSITION ACCURATE TO
WITHIN 30 NM (56 KM).

Talk about getting rapid intensification...
Now lets see if the models hold true and not plunge this typhoon further west...

[ManilaTC]

Question to the veteran mets to this forum...

I have just checked the steering layer wind analysis 400-850 MB
is that finger of the subtropical ridge over Luzon causing Songda to truck on West to WNW?
Does it have any significance to current movement?

[euro6208]

Although not upgraded, i expect songda to be upgraded to typhoon and I expect extreme rapid intensification now that songda has an eye. combine that with favorable outflow and low shear, this will be a monster!

[oaba09]

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 24 May 2011
<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°30'(12.5°)
E130°10'(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE310km(170NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E122°55'(122.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 480km(260NM)

[phwxenthusiast]

RE the PAGASA's forecast... i've watched their TV interviews on Philippine TV and i think they are basing their forecasts on the current track of the storm, if it's moving WNW then the fcast is WNW... that's just my opinion though based on their answers on TV.. someone said they are on a "better safe than sorry" approach, which is a good point too, could be feeling some pressure from the govt?? dunno

[Anonymous_daw]

Good afternoon (PH time) to everyone, from the graphics/forecasts that I'm seeing here, does it mean that it's almost impossible for Songda to hit Metro Manila? If so, can it still make a strong impact (in terms of wind/rain) on the Manila by tomorrow or Thursday even if Songda wont hit it directly? TIA

[Infdidoll]

RE the PAGASA's forecast... i've watched their TV interviews on Philippine TV and i think they are basing their forecasts on the current track of the storm, if it's moving WNW then the fcast is WNW... that's just my opinion though based on their answers on TV.. someone said they are on a "better safe than sorry" approach, which is a good point too, could be feeling some pressure from the govt?? dunno

This is one time when that approach might work out well for them considering the other agencies have been shifting their forecast tracks more to the west. I remember how much heat they were under and don't blame them a bit. It did look alarmist earlier in the day when everyone had tracks well to the NE...but those forecasts have since changed and PAGASA doesn't look so far off, now.

We're going to be watching to see how close this gets like the guy watching the iceberg on the Titanic: "She's gonna hit!!!" lol

[oaba09]

Good afternoon (PH time) to everyone, from the graphics/forecasts that I'm seeing here, does it mean that it's almost impossible for Songda to hit Metro Manila? If so, can it still make a strong impact (in terms of wind/rain) on the Manila by tomorrow or Thursday even if Songda wont hit it directly? TIA

Based on the most recent models, It's unlikely that metro manila will receive a direct hit....We'll still experience cloudy weather, light to moderate wind, and possibly some rain but that's pretty much it...Then again, nothing is impossible when it comes to these things...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[Infdidoll]

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 12.4N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 130.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.3N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.1N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.5N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240600Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 130.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SUSTAINED A STEADY
TRACK AND SLOW RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT HAD BEEN DAMPENING OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
STORM IS FILLING, AND THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. ANIMATED
VISUAL IMAGERY CONFIRMS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND THICKENING
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
240435Z AMSRE PASS ALSO VERIFIES THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES OF THE LLCC. THE
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE STILL LIMITED, HOWEVER, AND THE 37GHZ
IMAGE FROM THE SAME PASS SHOWS A LACK OF LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW COMBINED WITH AN OBSERVED
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION. TS SONGDA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS
A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXISTS OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. ALONG-TRACK CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN LUZON, WHERE IT
WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW BEND AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AND AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ACCELERATION
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH THAT SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND JGSM, WHICH TRACK
THE SYSTEM INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LUZON AND OUT INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT. NORTH OF 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, FALLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND SHARPLY DIMINISHED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
RYUKUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN



PROGNOSTIC REASONING

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS INHIBITING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 232212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 40 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS O4W IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AND DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. BY
TAU 36 AS VWS FURTHER RELAXES, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA, EXCEEDING TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH NOGAPS AS THE LEFT OUTLIER, TAKING THE
VORTEX
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EAST OF
TAIWAN TOWARD JAPAN JUST WEST OF OKINAWA, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 96, AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SST AND
VWS) BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD. THIS RECURVATURE WILL BE INITIATED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NGPS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO ACCOUNT FOR
KNOWN MODEL ERRORS IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

I noticed on the picture that Clark posted...it was different than when he first posted it. The break in the subtropical ridge shifted to the East...which has changed the forecast back to the original models. Thank you, Robert Speta! Because of your explanation of the streamline analysis charts, I happened to see that and was making bets in my head they were going to shift back to the East. I'm too amateur to voice my predictions, but always amazed when people here teach me things and I'm able to note them ahead of time. Thank you!

On the other hand, watch out Okinawa!

[oaba09]

Based on the latest JTWC track, it looks like kadena will be hit directly...I hope people there are prepared....

[StormingB81]

Infdiddoll...I do got to give it to you..good job on posting latest on kadena page...unfortunatly we al lknow they will wait till the last minute