WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[oaba09]

I'm hearing two different predictions here: Some seem very confident this is a landfall on Luzon, others supporting Songda staying off to the NE. If I were a betting person, typhoon betting would be better than Vegas.

right now both JTWC and JMA have it staying offshore of PI and coming your direction - maybe east of or maybe west of - could go either way. You are wise to prepare early and avoid the lines. If I had to pick a spot to fly to and film, right now, I'd pick somewhere close to Okinawa - it's in the lane.

I trust JTWC & JMA. PAGASA always seems to predict in favor of storms hitting the Philippines. Maybe they're playing safe, but for accuracy, JTWC seems to be the agency of choice for how it will impact the overall region, not just in the interest of one continent or prefecture.

Yup,

PAGASA has a history of doing that in the last 2 yrs in order to be safe and make sure that the public will prepare...After the ketsana and parma twin disasters, it seems like PAGASA has decided to have a "better safe than sorry approach"...

[Infdidoll]

I stayed at a Club Med in Sardinia - it was a fortress, ride out a storm in it any day.

I suspect the locals in Okinawa (like a lot of places that get hit a lot) know the drill and don't fret it too much. I was in Tulum, Mexico for Emily in 2005 and the locals started boarding up the windows about 12 hours before the storm. Nobody was too excited, just methodical. If your on base housing is like that at Andersen AFB on Guam, then you can handle 105 knots just fine. I would stash the car somewhere else though. And hopefully you are well above sea level. Andersen is on a cliff so they don't have to worry about storm surge/big waves.

The base housing here is pretty sturdy - I almost wish I lived in it! We went for the "live out in town" option. We're in a concrete highrise on the western sea wall. I do worry about storm surge and just hope we'll be okay here being that we're only on the 2nd story of the building! The locals just seem to go about their daily business. Just about everything in Okinawa is built from concrete. In fact, it's a shock to see a house actually made of wood. There are bars on most windows that face East or SE. I was amazed at how well everything is built here. I've never seen anyone here board windows before a storm, which has always puzzled me. Maybe because a BIG ONE hasn't hit since I've been here.

[Infdidoll]

Yup,

PAGASA has a history of doing that in the last 2 yrs in order to be safe and make sure that the public will prepare...After the ketsana and parma twin disasters, it seems like PAGASA has decided to have a "better safe than sorry approach"...

Exactly what I was thinking...I'm glad they are trying to look after their own. Those up here shouldn't rely on their prediction, though, or we would be in trouble if it curves this way, full strength, and not impeded by a prior landfall. Already heard a few people here saying, "We don't need to worry up here. It's going to hit the Philippines..." Those are going to be someone's famous last words, someday.

[Infdidoll]

Interesting to note, though. JMA seems to have shifted their track more in favor of a Luzon landfall as well?

[oaba09]

^Yup....It seems to getting nearer and nearer to a landfall every update

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.6N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.4N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.7N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.6N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.3N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 130.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z. //
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

I got really interesting video of all the dragonflies swarming once before a typhoon hit a few years ago. I've heard they can sense a change in pressure in the air. Pretty neat stuff.

I got swarmed by dragon flies in the eye of typhoon Morakot as it made landfall on Taiwan - quite a surreal experience!

Here's where we stand this morning with the models. UKMET 18z is disturbing taking Songda right into central Luzon near Naga city area, similar to where Durian hit in 2006. NOGAPS has landfall further north on Luzon.

GFS has finally come on board with landfall with Songda clipping NE Tip of Luzon. CMC 12z keeps it just offshore and ECMWF 12z very very close to NE tip.

The agencies however still forecasting a track east of consensus, but this may well change. This all makes deciding where to go to cover this storm tricky. I remember all too well typhoon Fengshen which was a June storm which every agency busted on with position of the recurve in 2008. Hopefully we'll have a better idea in 24 hours when I'll head to the airport and make a decision on where to go - Manila or Naha?

And of concern is Songda is now entering the most notorious piece of ocean real estate on the planet for explosive rapid intensification of TCs!

[oaba09]

I got really interesting video of all the dragonflies swarming once before a typhoon hit a few years ago. I've heard they can sense a change in pressure in the air. Pretty neat stuff.

I got swarmed by dragon flies in the eye of typhoon Morakot as it made landfall on Taiwan - quite a surreal experience!

Here's where we stand this morning with the models. UKMET 18z is disturbing taking Songda right into central Luzon near Naga city area, similar to where Durian hit in 2006. NOGAPS has landfall further north on Luzon.

GFS has finally come on board with landfall with Songda clipping NE Tip of Luzon. CMC 12z keeps it just offshore and ECMWF 12z very very close to NE tip.

The agencies however still forecasting a track east of consensus, but this may well change. This all makes deciding where to go to cover this storm tricky. I remember all too well typhoon Fengshen which was a June storm which every agency busted on with position of the recurve in 2008. Hopefully we'll have a better idea in 24 hours when I'll head to the airport and make a decision on where to go - Manila or Naha?

And of concern is Songda is now entering the most notorious piece of ocean real estate on the planet for explosive rapid intensification of TCs!

That's quite extreme from UKMET......I'm leaning more towards a landfall on the NE tip...

[StormingB81]

JTWC has it coming within 25 NM of Kadena Sunday Morning with winds at 120mph gusting to 150mph....hopefully people will be prepared!

[cycloneye]

Here is the prognostic reasoning by JTWC from the 00:00 UTC warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS INHIBITING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 232212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 40 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS O4W IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AND DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. BY
TAU 36 AS VWS FURTHER RELAXES, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA, EXCEEDING TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH NOGAPS AS THE LEFT OUTLIER, TAKING THE
VORTEX
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EAST OF
TAIWAN TOWARD JAPAN JUST WEST OF OKINAWA, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 96, AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SST AND
VWS) BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD. THIS RECURVATURE WILL BE INITIATED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NGPS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO ACCOUNT FOR
KNOWN MODEL ERRORS IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

Here is the prognostic reasoning by JTWC from the 00:00 UTC warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS INHIBITING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 232212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 40 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS O4W IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AND DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. BY
TAU 36 AS VWS FURTHER RELAXES, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA, EXCEEDING TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WITH
THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH NOGAPS AS THE LEFT OUTLIER, TAKING THE
VORTEX
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EAST OF
TAIWAN TOWARD JAPAN JUST WEST OF OKINAWA, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 96, AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SST AND
VWS) BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD. THIS RECURVATURE WILL BE INITIATED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NGPS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO ACCOUNT FOR
KNOWN MODEL ERRORS IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO.//
NNNN

Cycloneye, I think that's for the 1500 warning

[rdhdstpchld]

Ok, so if this is the case, and it comes up the west side of Okinawa, does anyone have any guesses as to which side of the storm will be hitting us? I'm a neophyte here, but I do know that depending on which side of the storm hits -- well, can make a big difference; last year we had a big storm, but the weaker side blew across Oki -- of course, that was on the eastern coast...does which side of the island make any difference? Again, please humor me...I'm learning...

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

oaba09, the thing that made me post it was the sentence about this microwave pass after the 2100z warming was out.

THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 232212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

eye feature

[oaba09]

oaba09, the thing that made me post it was the sentence about this microwave pass after the 2100z warming was out.

THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 232212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE

Ah yes, I didn't notice that...

[StormingB81]

Looking at jma..it looks like it is starting that NW turn...see if it continues

[oaba09]

Tropical Storm "CHEDENG" has slowed down as it moves in a West Northwest direction.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 490 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar

Coordinates: 12.1°N, 130.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph

Movement: West Northwest at 13 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday morning:
390 km East Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Thursday morning:
180 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or
360 km Southeast Casiguran, Aurora
Friday morning:
130 km Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or
220 km Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ok, so if this is the case, and it comes up the west side of Okinawa, does anyone have any guesses as to which side of the storm will be hitting us? I'm a neophyte here, but I do know that depending on which side of the storm hits -- well, can make a big difference; last year we had a big storm, but the weaker side blew across Oki -- of course, that was on the eastern coast...does which side of the island make any difference? Again, please humor me...I'm learning...

Thanks!

It's far too early to talk about any specifics regarding Okinawa since the storm is potentially still 5+ days away. However it would be worse for Okinawa if a storm passed close by on the western side of the island since it would then be in the front right quad.

[StormingB81]

With that eye starting to take shape I wouldn't be suprised if everyone upgrades to a typhoon this afternoon..we shall see