Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

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Dave
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#321 Postby Dave » Mon May 23, 2011 4:04 pm

We're under a severe thunderstorm watch now until 1200 EDT with severe thunderstorm warnings to my west...Indianapolis south to east of Evansville. Winds to 60 - 70 mph all warnings.


Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 338...WW 339...WW
340...WW 341...WW 342...WW 343...WW 344...WW 345...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CURRENTLY INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS NRN IND WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO OH.
ELSEWHERE...A MATURE BOW ECHO OVER SRN IL WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 40-50
KT ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM CAPABLE OF A SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD
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#322 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 4:31 pm

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_survey

Confirms as at least a high-end EF4 as we thought. I would not be surprised to see it increased to EF5.
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#323 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 4:36 pm

WFUS54 KOUN 232126
TOROUN
OKC011-073-093-232215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0037.110523T2126Z-110523T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
426 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ISABELLA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMES...FAIRVIEW...HOMESTEAD...
ISABELLA AND OKEENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE...MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND OUTSIDE
WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 9817 3609 9815 3613 9849 3629 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 266DEG 10KT 3620 9842

$$
TAYLOR
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

#324 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 4:37 pm

WFUS53 KIND 232130
TORIND
INC071-093-232200-
/O.NEW.KIND.TO.W.0034.110523T2130Z-110523T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 528 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BEDFORD.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MEDORA AND PLEASANT VIEW AROUND 550 PM EDT...
KURTZ AROUND 555 PM EDT...
VALLONIA AND FREETOWN AROUND 600 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 8654 3901 8610 3876 8603 3878 8609
3876 8610 3876 8612 3878 8621 3876 8628
3874 8628 3873 8631 3869 8630 3868 8639
3869 8649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 256DEG 31KT 3878 8640

$$

HOMANN/TUCEK
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#325 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 4:43 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232138Z - 232315Z

STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD WITH TIME THROUGH S-CNTRL KS.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT...BUT STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NWD ALONG AN EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
S-CNTRL KS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH ERN
KS...AND 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING...AND THIS COULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER NWD INTO KS...POSSIBLY
GROWING INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2011


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37119646 37039797 37389847 37869820 38489734 38659631
37739561 37119646
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#326 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 5:11 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL THROUGH NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232158Z - 232300Z

STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH W-CNTRL TX WITH TIME...POSSIBLY TO
JUST NE OF SAN ANGELO. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM NWRN TX SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. A RETREATING BOUNDARY
DEMARCATING MOISTER AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST WAS ALSO
OBSERVED AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. AUGMENTED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS PROCESS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SWD DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS STORM STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31419985 33029962 33409902 33029833 31319908 31419985
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#327 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 5:11 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...N-CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 232207Z - 232230Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2011


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36899658 36669438 35779380 34539549 34659734 36449710
36899658
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#328 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 5:34 pm

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 340...WW 341...WW
342...WW 343...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346...WW 347...

DISCUSSION...MASS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER N
CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
MULTIPLE STORM MERGERS AND UPSCALE GROWTH LIKELY THIS EVENING.
INITIALLY...THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL. LATER THIS
EVENING...MCS/BOW ECHO FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS RIDE
ESEWD ALONG A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS E/NE OK INTO WRN AR.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN...THOUGH A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...THOMPSON
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#329 Postby Bunkertor » Mon May 23, 2011 5:38 pm

Anyone thinking this could be the beginning of a 24 hour stretch ?
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Re:

#330 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 5:48 pm

Bunkertor wrote:Anyone thinking this could be the beginning of a 24 hour stretch ?


Probably not. Today was expected to be a less active day (tornado-wise) than yesterday or tomorrow and a major outbreak was not expected today (but scattered tornadoes - maybe one or two strong tornadoes - were likely). I think these will have little to do with the main event tomorrow afternoon and evening. Today is performing almost exactly as expected.

The real show is tomorrow. But we still need to see what happens tonight - if these clear out quickly overnight and leave the Plains wide open, a MASSIVE tornado outbreak is likely, with many destructive and potentially deadly tornadoes.

I'm not sure if a High Risk should be issued at 0600Z, unless these storms are in the process of clearing out at that time and the path is already wide open (then we could be talking catastrophe).
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#331 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 5:59 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
656 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

OHC003-161-232330-
/O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110523T2330Z/
VAN WERT OH-ALLEN OH-
656 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
ALLEN AND SOUTHERN VAN WERT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 653 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR OHIO CITY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VAN
WERT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
SPENCERVILLE AND DELPHOS...
ELIDA...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
JONESTOWN...ELGIN...VENEDOCIA...MONTICELLO...SOUTHWORTH...NEEDMORE...
CONANT AND KEMP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 8469 4084 8469 4085 8415 4065 8419
4066 8422 4068 8422 4068 8444 4072 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 272DEG 31KT 4076 8462

$$
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Re:

#332 Postby snoopj » Mon May 23, 2011 6:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_survey

Confirms as at least a high-end EF4 as we thought. I would not be surprised to see it increased to EF5.


One of the news radio outlets here in KC had a caller that worked previously for a NWS damage assessment team. He seemed to think that they may pull a more national set of assessment experts to do a full assessment on that level. Probably would get a EF5 rating from there if they pull them in since it was so close in the preliminary rating.
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Re: Re:

#333 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon May 23, 2011 6:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:Anyone thinking this could be the beginning of a 24 hour stretch ?


Probably not. Today was expected to be a less active day (tornado-wise) than yesterday or tomorrow and a major outbreak was not expected today (but scattered tornadoes - maybe one or two strong tornadoes - were likely). I think these will have little to do with the main event tomorrow afternoon and evening. Today is performing almost exactly as expected.

The real show is tomorrow. But we still need to see what happens tonight - if these clear out quickly overnight and leave the Plains wide open, a MASSIVE tornado outbreak is likely, with many destructive and potentially deadly tornadoes.

I'm not sure if a High Risk should be issued at 0600Z, unless these storms are in the process of clearing out at that time and the path is already wide open (then we could be talking catastrophe).


Unless something else develops late tonight, which isn't supposed to happen, then this area of rain should be long gone by sunrise.
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

#334 Postby Stephanie » Mon May 23, 2011 7:36 pm

There was a freakin' tornado warning in the Lehigh Valley of PA - that's just south of the Poconos! What the heck is going on with this weather?? :eek:
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#335 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 23, 2011 7:47 pm

GFS for Tuesday evening just east of Oklahoma City.

Image
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#336 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 7:59 pm

Everything seems to be decaying pretty quickly. NOT a good sign for tomorrow. High risk right away at 0600Z or do we hold off? With this clearing and the awareness needed in the light of these catastrophic and deadly outbreaks, I would pull the trigger right away to try to get people alert right away and give a heads up to save lives. Tomorrow looks to be an EXTREMELY dangerous day.
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Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

#337 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 8:06 pm

The calm between storms. Down to slight risk tonight.

SPC AC 240057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TEH LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY WSWWD INTO OK AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...OK/AR AND VICINITY...
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS SWRN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN TX
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WITH MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION NOW ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF OK. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO AN
MCS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD/ESWD ACROSS OK AND INTO AR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE MCS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
STORMS MAY REACH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS -- CONTINUES
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION
ATTM. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS
SUFFICIENT -- GIVEN ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION -- TO SUPPORT
A CONTINUATION OF STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH 40 TO 50 KT
WLYS AT MID-LEVELS...CONTINUED/RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN KS...AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS REGION PROVIDING
PERSISTENT ASCENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...NC/SERN VA...
STORMS PERSIST ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA ATTM...AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA ATOP ZONE OF MODERATE CAPE.
WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE CONVECTIVE THREAT BEGINS SHIFTS PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

..GOSS.. 05/24/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0106Z (9:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#338 Postby RL3AO » Mon May 23, 2011 8:14 pm

Wichita AFD

TUESDAY...
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY FOR STORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS MIGHT BE THE
BEST SETUP FOR THE AREA IN A WHILE. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG TRACK
TORNADOES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SURFACE LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE PANHANDLES BEFORE MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPES EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY
400 CORRIDOR AND MOVES NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A BULGE IN
THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT TO COINCIDE WITH THE
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY. AS FOR UPPER SUPPORT...IT WILL BE
PRESENT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
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Re:

#339 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon May 23, 2011 8:16 pm

RL3AO wrote:Wichita AFD

TUESDAY...
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY FOR STORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS MIGHT BE THE
BEST SETUP FOR THE AREA IN A WHILE. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LONG TRACK
TORNADOES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SURFACE LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE PANHANDLES BEFORE MOVING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA WHILE A SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPES EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY
400 CORRIDOR AND MOVES NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A BULGE IN
THE DRY LINE IS FORECAST JUST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT TO COINCIDE WITH THE
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY. AS FOR UPPER SUPPORT...IT WILL BE
PRESENT AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.


It definitely looks like a frightening setup. Late spring instability with early season shear are a deadly combination. I'd definitely go with a High Risk right away. This is not a setup to be holding back on IMO, and even greater caution is needed now coming off so many deadly tornado outbreaks.
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Re:

#340 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon May 23, 2011 10:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Tomorrow looks to be an EXTREMELY dangerous day.


No doubt.

Don't think it will come close to matching April 27, but I'd say that the ingredients look ripe - as of this moment - for a HUGE outbreak of deadly tornadoes tomorrow.

Oklahoma City, Dallas, and Wichita, look out.

Not to mention points in between, which unfortunately, includes my humble abode.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


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