Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[TwisterFanatic]

Not to take away anything from yesterday or today, but tomorrows parameters are as concerning as I've seen in many years. My thoughts are with all those in path of these severe weather events.

Yes, I've been watching Tuesday's potential for days. It definitely looks very ominous right now. Tulsa NWS really trying to get people ready here in Eastern Oklahoma. They used "Long-lived Strong to Violent Tornadoes likely" for tomorrow in a briefing this morning.

[CrazyC83]

Not to take away anything from yesterday or today, but tomorrows parameters are as concerning as I've seen in many years. My thoughts are with all those in path of these severe weather events.

Yes, I've been watching Tuesday's potential for days. It definitely looks very ominous right now. Tulsa NWS really trying to get people ready here in Eastern Oklahoma. They used "Long-lived Strong to Violent Tornadoes likely" for tomorrow in a briefing this morning.

They need to use the strongest language possible after what has happened recently. Now is the time to prepare.

[CrazyC83]

Hard to believe we are calling today "relative calm" with a moderate risk of severe weather...that is all relative, IT ONLY TAKES ONE. Even though it should be not nearly as widespread as yesterday or tomorrow, one or two significant tornadoes cannot be ruled out. If they hit the wrong place, that can be really bad.

[Bunkertor]

I make a bet. TOR within 30 minutes ( OK, just checked the soundings - I fold )

[CrazyC83]

Any S2K members from Joplin?

[Dave]

wx247 is in or near Joplin but haven't seen him since last night. I've got a friend north of Bentonville AR (50 miles south of Joplin) but waiting for a call from her at this time...not an s2k member....yet.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
CARBONDALE ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337...WW 338...WW 339...

DISCUSSION...MCS WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE MS RIVER WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A DEEP
WSWLY WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF MCS WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD

[Dave]

This one was issued earlier...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1000 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CORSICANA TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337...WW 338...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED W OF THE
DALLAS-FT. WORTH AREA APPARENTLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG AND AROUND 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

Not a lot of change. Moderate risk areas adjusted slightly. Still tornadoes are a threat, but wind and hail the main threats.

SPC AC 231627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND...NORTHERN OH...AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...INTO NY/PA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

A VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...NY/PA INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OH/WV. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIMITING
HEATING FROM PA NORTHWARD...BUT EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BAND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL
VA...WITH MORE ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS FROM THERE SOUTHWARD INTO NC.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THIS AREA...WITH HAIL BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER VA/NC AREAS AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RANGE
FROM 30-40 KNOTS.

...MID MS AND OH VALLEY...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER MO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS APPEAR TO
BE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE STL AREA AND INTO AN AIR MASS WHERE RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS CLOSELY TIED TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IA/MO...AND A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX
SHOWN IN MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS. THE WIND MAX AND ASSOCIATED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IL/IN/OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN IND/NORTHWEST OH AND SPREAD INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE MAINTAINED AND
ACTUALLY EXPANDED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DFW TODAY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WEST TX WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN OK. STORMS
WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT... GENERAL MODEL CONCENSUS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY GROW
UPSCALE OVERNIGHT WITH AN MCS TRACKING TO AR WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/23/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1633Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[brunota2003]

Watching TWC...Mike said he spoke to the lead NWS surveyor in Joplin (they are going through right now), said it is "definitely" at least EF4, but they are going to take a closer look at the concrete structures to determine if there is any evidence of EF5 damage.

[Extratropical94]

Severe thunderstorm moving right through downtown Dallas / Ft. Worth

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1045 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GRAND PRAIRIE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GRAND PRAIRIE AND CEDAR HILL STATE PARK AROUND 1050 AM...
IRVING...CEDAR HILL AND COPPELL AROUND 1055 AM...
COCKRELL HILL AND DUNCANVILLE AROUND 1100 AM...
FARMERS BRANCH...DESOTO AND CARROLLTON AROUND 1105 AM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9652 3274 9652 3254 9677 3255 9704
3299 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 1545Z 262DEG 32KT 3275 9708

$$

Edit: Posted the wrong warning

[CrazyC83]

Agreed Joplin was an easy EF4, but definitely construction standards will make the difference between EF4 and EF5. Either way, that is still extremely destructive!

[MGC]

Yet another horrible tornado. God bless the victims. This is what the third EF-4 to hit a city this spring?
2011 is sure shaping up to be a bad weather year......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Yet another horrible tornado. God bless the victims. This is what the third EF-4 to hit a city this spring?
2011 is sure shaping up to be a bad weather year......MGC

It is the third to hit a city of 50,000 or more (which I consider a decent-sized city). Other EF4s have hit smaller cities as well. The three EF5s all hit small towns and villages but were still catastrophic.

[Bunkertor]

Flight http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live ... am=stream3

Some property looks as if it was unearthed

I would rate the damage in Joplin worse than in Tusca.

[bvigal]

wx247 in Monett, glad you are OK!

Bark off the trees, looks like EF4... at least.

Did anyone ever find the actual TORNADO WARNING that was issued? I searched through all these pages and also the SPC but can't find it! I would just like to read it.

One tv station said the sirens began about 5:15. And watched more than one video in which people said they THEN went outside to look at the sky. Have we gotten so good with warnings that people don't feel the need to run for cover as fast as their little legs will take them? Or, has our video-intense society made everyone a wannabe rich and famous for shooting some film? Sad. So sad.

I grew up in Missouri and as a little kid, always had a nightmare that the tv came on with a warning a split second before our house exploded. (In those days, there was really a delay, if they said it was 20 miles away, it was over our head.) I always wanted my parents to take us to basement when the watch was issued, LOL!

Did you see that video of the Pizza Hut people, that they went in the walkin cooler, and it blew away? And one person was dead and another missing? chilling see KOAM TV - can't get a link, just ADOBE's stupid flashplayer msg(!)

My prayers for all who lost family, friends, property, business, schools, churches, jobs, memories in Joplin, a wonderful town!!

[TwisterFanatic]

Some STRONG wording for tomorrow.

SPC AC 231716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX TO SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY TO SRN NY...

...TORNADIC OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...

A CLASSIC PLAINS TORNADIC OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF A VERY STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS SRN
CA...INTO THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
BY PEAK HEATING. A VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS AS 30-60M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS EDGE EWD. ADDITIONALLY...H5
SPEED MAX APPROACHING 80-90KT...AS NOTED IN THE GFS...WILL RACE TO A
POSITION OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 25/00Z WHICH WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER
REGION...NWD INTO KS AND EVEN SRN NEB. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TIME FAVORABLY FOR RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS ATMOSPHERIC
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.

EARLY IN THE MORNING A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING
WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM KS EWD INTO MO AND
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS REGION OF ASCENT AND STORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY FORCE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO NRN AR...NWWD INTO SRN
KS. HOWEVER...A NWD RETREAT IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN KS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS
REASON IT APPEARS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM NRN
TX INTO SRN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 5000 J/KG WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT CLASSIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS KS/OK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60KT. BY MID AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE NOTED
ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE FORCING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
90S...EFFECTIVELY REMOVING INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP MUCH QUICKER WITHIN THE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SFC LOW WITHIN STRONGEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

WHILE DRYLINE SUPERCELLS LIFE CYCLE WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN
21Z-04Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS KS/NEB INTO MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...TN/OH VALLEY TO SRN NY...

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WITH AN 18Z POSITION FROM CNTRL OH...SWD INTO ERN TN. THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...SHOULD INDUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE VAST MAJORITY OF
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE BUT CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

[CrazyC83]

If I were in that area tomorrow, I would be planning today for worst-case scenarios. For those that work in big, solid buildings like large skyscrapers, they should bring their families and stay there all day and evening. For those who live and work in anything less, they should be thinking about alternate plans.

Tomorrow looks AWFUL!

[TwisterFanatic]

If I were in that area tomorrow, I would be planning today for worst-case scenarios. For those that work in big, solid buildings like large skyscrapers, they should bring their families and stay there all day and evening. For those who live and work in anything less, they should be thinking about alternate plans.

Tomorrow looks AWFUL!

Yep, talked to a local Pro-Met today on facebook, and he told me tomorrow looks like a potentially historic Tornado Outbreak.

[CrazyC83]

Beginning of a Midwest derecho?

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL INDIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337...WW 338...WW
339...WW 340...

DISCUSSION...BOW ECHO NEAR STL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD THIS
AFTERNOON AT 45-55 KT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WW AREA IS
WARMING/DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED
WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF
MCS WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/NW.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26045.


...MEAD