Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[Bunkertor]

BreakingNews: 24 deaths in wake of tornado in Joplin, MO, - News-Leader http://bit.ly/jaJ5iR

[Dave]

This is the only tornado warning active right now...

HOWELL MO-
931 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
HOWELL COUNTY...

AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF WEST PLAINS...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE PEACE VALLEY...POMONA...WEST PLAINS AND
WHITE CHURCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[Dave]

AT 2235 hrs (10:35 PM) EDT:

Flash Flood Warnings: 14
Thunderstorm Warnings: 13
Tornado Warnings (expires at 1045 pm edt): 1

[CrazyC83]

Larger cities that have been hit by intense tornadoes in 2011:

Jackson, MS - April 15
Tuscaloosa, AL (first tornado) - April 15
Raleigh, NC - April 16
Fayetteville, NC - April 16
St. Louis, MO - April 22
Tuscaloosa, AL (second tornado) - April 27
Birmingham, AL - April 27
Huntsville, AL - April 27
Chattanooga, TN - April 27
Minneapolis, MN - May 22
Joplin, MO - May 22

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN WI THROUGH NRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 327...

VALID 230235Z - 230330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 327 CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND WW 327 EXPIRATION
TIME OF 03Z ACROSS NRN IL INTO EXTREME SERN WI. PRIMARY THREAT HAS
TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO CHICAGO...WW 327
WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR NRN IL UNTIL AROUND 05Z.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MERGING WITH PACIFIC FRONT HAS RESULTED IN RAPID
UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH FROM EXTREME SERN WI SWWD THROUGH NWRN IL.
PREVIOUS AND ONGOING CONVECTION AND ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING HAVE
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF SQUALL LINE AND SHOULD POSE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2011


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

[vbhoutex]

Seems to be winding down in TX, at least DFW area, but;

ERATH TX-
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR ERATH COUNTY...

AT 934 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DUBLIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED 60 MPH WINDS IN
DE LEON.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MORGAN MILL AROUND 940 PM CDT...
STEPHENVILLE AROUND 945 PM CDT...

[Dave]

As of 2245 Hrs (1045 EDT) there are no tornado warnings in the USA. 11 Thunderstorm warnings are still active however. I'm taking a break!

[brunota2003]

Here are a couple of shots of some rain showers a friend and myself chased today:





The first was near Lake Ontario, that is one of the bays in the photo. The second photo is just outside of Watertown...that photo goes along with today's quote of the day (for me, at least): "Is the storm coming this way?" "Uhhh...yes! The trees are disappearing!"

[vbhoutex]

All severe warnings are down in TX.

[Brent]

RT @ProducerMatthew: Death toll from Joplin, Missouri tornado at 32, expected to increase - law enforcement

[wx247]

Hey all... the situation tonight is unreal. The tornado was north and west of us here by about 20 miles, but the devestation is unlike anything I have ever seen.

[CrazyC83]

So what will Joplin get rated I wonder?

I say it depends on the quality of construction, that would be the difference between EF4 and EF5.

The hospital damage was probably EF3, the houses around it EF4. But there may have been EF5 damage elsewhere.

[vbhoutex]

Hey all... the situation tonight is unreal. The tornado was north and west of us here by about 20 miles, but the devestation is unlike anything I have ever seen.

I am so glad to know you didn't get hit. The devastation is INCREDIBLE!! I fear another very high death toll from the monster that hit Joplin. If it isn't declared an EF5 I will be surprised.

[wx247]

So what will Joplin get rated I wonder?

I say it depends on the quality of construction, that would be the difference between EF4 and EF5.

The hospital damage was probably EF3, the houses around it EF4. But there may have been EF5 damage elsewhere.

If you can find a before and after picture of the St John's Hospital you will be surprised by how devastated it actually is.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks as if the atmosphere will take a break overnight, and get ready for more tomorrow afternoon/evening..

[CrazyC83]

So what will Joplin get rated I wonder?

I say it depends on the quality of construction, that would be the difference between EF4 and EF5.

The hospital damage was probably EF3, the houses around it EF4. But there may have been EF5 damage elsewhere.

If you can find a before and after picture of the St John's Hospital you will be surprised by how devastated it actually is.

Based on the EF-scale, an institutional building that sustained major damage (DOD 10, Collapse of some top story exterior walls) has an estimated wind speed of 127-172 mph, with an expected of 148 mph. Given it was concrete and the catastrophic surrounding damage, I would estimate it sustained high-end EF3 damage (from winds of 160-165 mph or so in that spot).

[CrazyC83]

Looks as if the atmosphere will take a break overnight, and get ready for more tomorrow afternoon/evening..

With little activity overnight, it increases the potential for tomorrow, correct?

[vbhoutex]

So what will Joplin get rated I wonder?

I say it depends on the quality of construction, that would be the difference between EF4 and EF5.

The hospital damage was probably EF3, the houses around it EF4. But there may have been EF5 damage elsewhere.

If you can find a before and after picture of the St John's Hospital you will be surprised by how devastated it actually is.

There is nothing except rubble as far as the eye can see. I saw not one wall even standing. Part of the equation is the quality of construction, but from what I saw that hospital was pretty well trashed and to say the least it is a substantial structure. An EF5 designation would not surprise me, but imo EF4 is a definite.

[psyclone]

unfortunately, unlike many severe events that yield calm the following day, southwest missouri looks to have a respectable severe threat tomorrow as well.

[Ntxw]

unfortunately, unlike many severe events that yield calm the following day, southwest missouri looks to have a respectable severe threat tomorrow as well.

God forbid it to become a situation like Tuscaloosa. Many were without power due to storms and tornadoes not long before the big one and many did not have access to warnings.