2011 NOAA Hurricane Outlook 12-18/6-10/3-6

[clfenwi]

Official report isn't posted yet, but NOAA has posted the press release

70% chance of

12-18 named storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes.

More to follow once the report is posted.

Report has been posted.

65% chance of above normal season, 25% chance of near normal, 10% chance of below normal.

Item of note, they have changed the years used in calculating averages/norms. They used to use 1950-2000. They are now using 1980-2010 (see background information).

70% chance of Accumulated Cyclone Energy between 97 and 186.

If we take the ranges and divide by two we get

15 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes (rounded up from 4.5)
ACE 142

[cycloneye]

[clfenwi]

Reasoning for the forecast is what one would expect. Continutation of the 'active period' of the Multi-Decadal Oscillation, above-average Sea Surface Temperatures in the Mean Development Region, and the expectation of neutral ENSO conditions. Interesting tidbit regarding ENSO

...Most models predict ENSO-Neutral conditions (defined by the CPC as SST departures between -0.5oC and +0.5oC) during this period. However, a few models predict weak La Niña conditions (SST departures cooler than -0.5oC), or even weak El Niño conditions (SST departures above +0.5oC).

This spread in the model forecasts, combined with the limited predictive skill exhibited by all such models at this time of the year, is a main reason why we are presently indicating only a 65% chance of an above-normal season. If El Niño does not develop, the probability of an above- normal Atlantic hurricane season will be even higher and the actual seasonal activity will more likely be toward the upper end of our predicted ranges.

[Extratropical94]

Nearly the same outlook for the EPAC as last year.

2010: 9-15 NS, 4-8 H, 1-3 MH, 5/20/75% chances
2011: 9-15 NS, 5-8 H, 1-3 MH, 5/25/70% chances

[cycloneye]

Regardless of the numbers,preparation should be the priority for those who live in hurricane alley,as the important thing is not how many storms will form,but where those that do so will go.

[Stormcenter]

How many times do people have to say this? It only takes one BIG ONE folks....just one. The numbers mean NOTHING in my opinion. It's all about how strong they are when they make landfall and where they end up.

[Stormcenter]

Cycloneye I'm sorry but I didn't read your post before I posted but it sounds like you beat me to the punch. Well said.

Regardless of the numbers,preparation should be the priority for those who live in hurricane alley,as the important thing is not how many storms will form,but where those that do so will go.

[abajan]

How many times do people have to say this? It only takes one BIG ONE folks....just one. The numbers mean NOTHING in my opinion. It's all about how strong they are when they make landfall and where they end up.

Whenever I hear folks focusing on numbers, my mind harks back to the infamous Andrew of '92 - a very quiet year, number wise.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow another year is here. I think there will be landfalls this year. It seems the door is open compared to last year. Everyone should be prepared in advance. I have a feeling that many people are not going to be ready if one strikes. Too many years without a landfall leads to too much complacentcy. Spelling sucks.