ImpactWeather Releases 2011 North Atlantic Outlook

[srainhoutx]

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... D4HWWnL74U

[Portastorm]

Oh great!

The 2008 analog year worries me for two reasons: it was a brutally hot/dry summer for much of Texas. We also had a girl (Dolly) and a guy (Ike) who visited our state and created a lot of misery and unhappiness.

[ROCK]

Oh come on Port...I havent had rain in 6 weeks....I could use a could solid cat 2 right about now....

[vbhoutex]

Oh come on Port...I havent had rain in 6 weeks....I could use a could solid cat 2 right about now....

Uh no!! I could use the rain from a slow moving solid CAT 2 right now, but that is the only part I want!!

[South Texas Storms]

I could definitely use some rain from a tropical system right now! I don't even remember the last time I've had more than 0.02 inches of rain!

[Portastorm]

Oh come on Port...I havent had rain in 6 weeks....I could use a could solid cat 2 right about now....

Ha! Who are you kidding, Rock?! If a Cat 2 hit your neck of the woods, you'd be up here in Austin ... with the rest of the escapees.

I wouldn't mind a Hermine or something along those lines. No kidding, I think Hermine (last August) was the last time we saw heavy rain here in Austin.

[ROCK]

Oh come on Port...I havent had rain in 6 weeks....I could use a could solid cat 2 right about now....

Ha! Who are you kidding, Rock?! If a Cat 2 hit your neck of the woods, you'd be up here in Austin ... with the rest of the escapees.

I wouldn't mind a Hermine or something along those lines. No kidding, I think Hermine (last August) was the last time we saw heavy rain here in Austin.

ha...good point....Cat2 maybe Cat4 I see you on 6th street....

[vbhoutex]

Oh come on Port...I havent had rain in 6 weeks....I could use a could solid cat 2 right about now....

Ha! Who are you kidding, Rock?! If a Cat 2 hit your neck of the woods, you'd be up here in Austin ... with the rest of the escapees.

I wouldn't mind a Hermine or something along those lines. No kidding, I think Hermine (last August) was the last time we saw heavy rain here in Austin.

ha...good point....Cat2 maybe Cat4 I see you on 6th street....

I like the way you guys think!! All the Houston area peeps need to decide at what level we will all evacuate and then meet up with Portastorm at a designated spot on Sixth Street. HURRICANE PARTY!!!

[lonelymike]

At this point would take a nice little TS here in S Ala. Man's it hot and dry.

[ROCK]

but seriously though, analog years as far as impacts goes is not all that accurate, IMO.....I do think we will see some GOM monsters this year but to say Texas has a higher than average chance than say FL and places in between is just guessing...JMO...

[vbhoutex]

but seriously though, analog years as far as impacts goes is not all that accurate, IMO.....I do think we will see some GOM monsters this year but to say Texas has a higher than average chance than say FL and places in between is just guessing...JMO...

And I will be the last person to deny someone else their opinion.
I think what is being said is that based on climo it appears there will be a set up which will tend to drive TC's further West, thus the the increased Texas threat. If we have a set up like we did in 2008, and it is one of the analog years, we know what happened and if it happens again, then maybe there will be more credence given to climo and analog years. Personally, I believe that more often than not impacts are more the luck of the draw(the actual atmospheric set up at that time) than what is necessarily indicated by climo. Saying that, I also think that one has to pay attention to climo and analog years in the overall scheme of general forecasting of TCs.

[tolakram]

I'll say what I said last year.

Until someone can show scientific validity to using analog years to predict landfall risk I think it's irresponsible to do so. I'm sure at some point it can probably be done, but right now we don't know how the setup will look during the heart of hurricane season. Last year should be a case study on why it should not be done. My opinion of course.

[xironman]

A nice article on how MJO could effect the track this year http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html. And he does readily admit that there is no guaranties.

But because the atmosphere’s governing dynamics are so incredibly complex, there are plenty of other processes that will also shape the 2011 hurricane season. I’ve only mentioned one of them. And though the MJO cycles may only account for a fraction of the total variability in the steering patterns we see during the season, it still offers one of the great clues to solving hurricane-track mystery.

[cycloneye]

JB also mentions the MJO.

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1739

[wxman57]

I'll say what I said last year.

Until someone can show scientific validity to using analog years to predict landfall risk I think it's irresponsible to do so. I'm sure at some point it can probably be done, but right now we don't know how the setup will look during the heart of hurricane season. Last year should be a case study on why it should not be done. My opinion of course.

Perhaps you don't understand what an analog year is. An analog year is one in which we can identify specific oceanic temperature patterns and atmospheric flow patterns (i.e., steering currents) that most closely resemble what we are currently observing. With that, we make an assumption that if the current flow patterns are similar to a year or years in the past, then the future flow patterns may also be similar. And if that's the case, then this year's tropical cyclones may impact regions that were impacted in the analog years.

Of course, just because a season is similar to an analog season doesn't mean that the flow pattern that exists at any particular time (when a TC forms) is going to fit into the mean pattern of an analog season. The mean pattern just doesn't exist from June-November, some storms will stray, of course. But the mean pattern may exist more often then not, so we may be able to identify what regions are most likely to be impacted when that mean pattern (compared to the analog years) exists.

Last year, for example, I remember that ImpactWeather predicted the much weaker Bermuda High (as the Euro forecast). That, in combination with an analysis of analog seasons led to a forecast of most storms recurving out to sea or tracking well south into Mexico. Another potential impact area (NE Gulf Coast / southeast U.S) was not impacted in 2010. The prevailing trof along the East U.S. Coast was just too strong in 2010 (negative NAO) to allow any westward movement to Florida or the Carolinas.

There's no way to predict where each individual storm of an upcoming season will track. The best one can do is to make an educated guess based on what data there is to work with.