WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm
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Re:
oaba09 wrote:It's weird because PAGASA already removed the signal warning for metro manila and yet we're still experiencing strong winds...
Perhaps the storm has already triggered the Southwest Monsoon this early. If this is the case, we are in for an early rainy season.
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WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 16.3N 122.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 20.6N 121.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 110000UTC 23.8N 123.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120000UTC 29.0N 129.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 16.3N 122.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 20.6N 121.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 110000UTC 23.8N 123.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120000UTC 29.0N 129.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm
I believe Aere PEAKED at typhoon strength of around 65-70 knots sustained 1 minute while east of manila. CI and ADJT# showed Aere reaching 4.0-4.5...
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm
We felt strong winds around midnight and there have been strong gusty winds until the morning. Rains are on-and-off, not as heavy as yesterday. At this time, the sky is still dark with some drizzles and moderate breeze. If Aere is already in North Luzon then maybe it's the tail-end of the storm affecting us or the enhanced SW monsoon. (by the way, is it possible that the SW windflow blowing as early as May?)
I also agree with euro6208. I saw a microwave image of Aere last night and I believe there was a small "eye" present there. It could be somewhere near typhoon strength at some point.
I also agree with euro6208. I saw a microwave image of Aere last night and I believe there was a small "eye" present there. It could be somewhere near typhoon strength at some point.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm
Video Update for today, sadly up to 9 reports of Deaths at this time, wide spread flooding as well. Glad you hear you all have power that are on right now. Seen a lot of reports of blackouts as well.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVZTjnVctKw[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVZTjnVctKw[/youtube]
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:Okinawa has now been placed in TCCOR 3
Wow, that is surprising but I guess better safe than sorry. Kadena currently forecasting a max of 30G45 kts overnight on the 11th.
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Re: Re:
RobWESTPACWX wrote:StormingB81 wrote:Okinawa has now been placed in TCCOR 3
Wow, that is surprising but I guess better safe than sorry. Kadena currently forecasting a max of 30G45 kts overnight on the 11th.
and JTWC has it at about 45G55 right before it hits us so I guess we will just see..but those are kinda different.
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Well the update technically isn't to be released until 1800I. (09Z) Usually they try to get it out early though.
But I take back thinking Okinawa wasn't going to get much from this storm, that very well could be a bust. Still 2 days out now but TS strength winds really could cause a threat.
Then really long out could see some high winds up here in Yoko.
======
WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.4N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.0N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED OVER EASTERN
LUZON AND THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, TS 03W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TS 03W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIGHT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) BEGIN TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TS 03W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A GALE-
FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. HOWEVER, NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM EARLIER AND TRACKS IT
SLOWER TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF TRACK
TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS DURING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN
But I take back thinking Okinawa wasn't going to get much from this storm, that very well could be a bust. Still 2 days out now but TS strength winds really could cause a threat.
Then really long out could see some high winds up here in Yoko.
======
WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.0N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.4N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.0N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED OVER EASTERN
LUZON AND THERE IS A DECREASE IN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, TS 03W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TS 03W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE LUZON STRAIGHT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) BEGIN TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48 WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TS 03W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A GALE-
FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. HOWEVER, NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM EARLIER AND TRACKS IT
SLOWER TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF TRACK
TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS DURING THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm
Kadena 5 Day
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