GFS develops early EPAC system

[Ivanhater]

Early start for EPAC?

Only 144 hours out..ends up in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

GFS has showed this for a while as I posted seven days ago at the Global Model Runs thread about GFS showing a crossover from EPAC to Caribbean.

Code: Select all

cycloneye   Post subject: Re: Global Model RunsPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 1:23 pm 
 
 
  A crossover disturbance from EPAC to Caribbean? Look closely at the 4/7/11 12z loop from GFS.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... t=Loop+All
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viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

   
 
 
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[Ivanhater]

I remember Luis. Now we are in within 144 hours which makes this very interesting.

18z GFS develops it into a strong system



Landfall



Again ends up in the Caribbean..

[cycloneye]

Michael,if this becomes into a real thing,remember me as I will be down there on a cruise West of Central America and Mexico by that time.

[Ivanhater]

Michael,if this becomes into a real thing,remember me as I will be down there on a cruise by that time.

The consistency is alarming Luis. I know you have a close eye on this one!

[Vortex]

It certainly has begun to grab my attention now...If the consistancy of the GFS continues run to run and other Globals begin jumping on board this may be the real deal...The crossover would be something else for late April....

[cycloneye]

Will this area be the one that gives birth to what GFS is showing?

[cycloneye]

Only a small pink dot,but will it get bigger with time?

[HURAKAN]

Development of a tropical cyclone in April in the Eastern Pacific will really be something historic. GFS tends to have a higher than average ghost cyclones at the beginning and end of the hurricane season, so I'm hesitant to throw my hat in the ring based on GFS history and climatology.

[cycloneye]

An excerpt from this mornings discussion:

A 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ NEAR 05N91W. THE CLOUD FIELD SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING AND EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS AS DESCRIBED
IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
PERSISTING OVER THIS REGION WHILE NOT MOVING MUCH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0945.shtml?

[tolakram]

Starting to see the circulation:

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-rgb.html

The spin is also visible in the loop above

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In my opinion it's too close to the equator and higher shear is just to the north, so something to watch but not much of a chance.

First disclaimer of the year!

[TexasStorm]

That is a very impressive storm for Mid April. Guess we will find out soon if the GFS is smoke and mirrors this season or the real deal. If a storm that size does develop, it should have no problem making the crossover intact. Now if it can survive after the crossover I am not as certain.

[cycloneye]

Ding-dong,ding-dong wow! What a discussion this afternoon about this.

A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW PRES NEAR 04N91W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOW AND EVIDENCE OF SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE FACT THAT TSTMS
REMAIN PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW IN SPITE OF SEVERAL INHIBITING
FACTORS INDICATES THIS OFF-SEASON AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP
THE CIRCULATION VIABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH ONLY AT 15-20 KT
BUT THIS IS THE FIRST SIGN OF LIFE FOR THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC SO
FAR IN 2011. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT WNW THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0945.shtml

[tolakram]

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests out to sea with this weak disturbance.

[wxman57]

Another bogus development forecast. We'll see more and more of these in the weeks to come.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggesting tropical activity beyond the 15th. With season starting Sunday, perhaps Adrian may not be too far in the distance.

[GCANE]

Just south of 10N and around 85W.

Lots of convection firing and a good LL Vorticity with low shear.

GFS spinning up into a deep warm core end of the week.