#32 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Apr 02, 2011 9:34 am
JTWC has this maxing out near 90kts with gust above 100, looks about right giving the favorable conditions off the NW coast..
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.8S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.5S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.5S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.5S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.5S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 126.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS REDUCED AS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVED ONSHORE NEAR KALUMBURU.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN INTACT AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE
LLCC AS EVIDENCED ON RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE RADAR ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM
KNES, PGTW, AND APRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO STRADDLE THE KIMBERLY COAST BEFORE
IT RE-ENTERS THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN BY TAU 24.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 90 KTS AT TAU 96 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
RECURVE POLEWARD TOWARDS LEARMONTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT FAVORS A WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER TAU 48,
INDICATING MINIMAL IMPACT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030300Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
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