2010 retired hurricanes

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Andrew92
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#221 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:59 pm

I'm a bit surprised to only see Igor and Tomas go, but I kind of have a theory for why both Alex and Karl were both retired.

Alex and Karl were both destructive hurricanes, there is no doubt. However, when looking at the scope of things, Mexico does get almost every year get hit by one or two hurricanes (because they can get hit from BOTH the Atlantic and Pacific). They may simply think of their "retire-worthy" storms as being hurricanes like Gilbert, Diana (from 1990), Pauline, or Wilma. Those storms caused a wide scope of problems in several areas throughout the country. Alex (mostly hit Monterrey) and Karl (hit Veracruz) were localized by comparison. We also must remember that the 5.6 billion US dollar bill for Karl was only a preliminary estimate. The actual bill per the NHC report was closer to only $206 million US dollars. Remember when Ophelia was one time projected to have caused $1.5 billion? Some were clamoring for that name's retirement, but the actual total was a scant $75 million instead, nowhere near enough to do the trick. I can also see for similar reasons why Matthew was spared retirement.

The one name that really makes me raise eyebrows is Agatha. True, it is was not a hurricane, "only" a tropical storm. But it was a destructive one that caused widespread flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. The only area I can think of that may have caused no retirement for that name is comparing Agatha to not only Mitch, Fifi, and Stan, but perhaps to other disasters that happen to that region as a whole. I'm talking things like earthquakes and volcano eruptions (also remember there had been one of those only days before Agatha hit). Then again, Alma caused less damage, and it went....though Costa Rica did describe it as one of the worst tropical cyclones in that country's history. Maybe Agatha just isn't quite in the upper echelon in Guatemala and/or El Salvador.

Whether you agree or disagree with what I said, one thing I'll say is, few people outside those countries probably really know the whole scoop.

-Andrew92
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Macrocane
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Re: 2010 retired hurricanes

#222 Postby Macrocane » Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:17 am

Your analysis about Alex and Karl may be right although it's still weird that Alex and Karl were called the worst hurricanes in Monterrey and Veracruz respectively and they were not retired. In the case of Matthew I still can't find any source in Nicaragua's newspapers or government websites that confirm the high death toll that the report mentions and I believe that it may not be real. Now about Agatha, it holds the record of the highest rainfall in 24 hours in El Salvador but thankfully the damages and death toll were not nearly as high as Stan, Mitch or the november 2009 floods, Guatemala is a different story and I think it's one of their deadliest tropical cyclones but still not as deadly as Stan or Mitch though IMO it deserved to be retired.
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Hurricane Jed
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#223 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:30 am

Perhaps make it a three tier process.
1. The country request's retirement and if that doesn't happen...
2. Each region in the North Atlantic is divided into population and economic regions. Each tropical cyclone that hits that region must meet a specific death toll or economic bar line in order to be considered for retirement. Say Karl met the damage requirement therefore regardless of whether or not they requested its retirement it still gets retired due to meeting the damage criteria. And if not that and some in the WMO still have concerns...
3. Put it to a vote for everyone involved at the meeting.

Just a thought.
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#224 Postby Buck » Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:28 pm

The wikipedia information on Karl isn't accurate. If you look at AIR Worldwide (whom NHC references for damage estimates), Karl didn't do anywhere near 1 billion, yet alone 5 billion in damage (US dollars). I've tried to correct this information on wikipeda numerous times but it always gets changed back by people that want the figures to look more dramatic even when they are false.

I am a bit surprised that Alex wasn't retired, but not surprised about Karl. But Mexico is tough when it comes to requesting names. You can put Alex right there alongside Emily.
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#225 Postby Hurricane Jed » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:49 pm

Good for you trying to correct the page. I'd keep trying to edit it or try and get it edited and then find a way to get it locked from anybody else altering it. Yeah just looked at the report. Karl was a pretty nasty storm but not too damaging nor was the death toll too terribly bad. Granted it was worse than Item in 1951 but not by much. Certainly not Diana bad. I can see now why Mexico did not retire it. :P Silly me for not reading the report.
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