#122 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 21, 2011 8:22 pm
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 21/2001 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU CENTRE 940HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.7S 171.0E AT 211800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT
STILL DISCERNIBLE. EYE WARMING AND CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST
BUT FAIR ESLEWHERE. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORHTWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND LG
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.5,
MET=5.5, PT=5.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH SOUTHEAST .
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 21.8S 171.9E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 24.4S 173.2E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 27.4S 175.5E MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 30.4S 178.7E MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYCLONE ATU WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 220200 UTC.
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