Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Tireman4]

Gee whiz, a dissertation....LOL

[wxman57]

Short version: Weak front, not much rain.

[gboudx]

I love when Cavanaugh writes the AFD's. So much information.

FWIW, I was aerating my backyard this past Saturday after the ice finally melted, and there's a small part that is almost exclusively shaded this time of year. When I tried to push the aerator thru the soil in this area, it was a lot harder than the rest of the yard. In fact, in a couple spots I could stand on the aerator tool without it penetrating the ground; like it was on concrete. After a couple dirt plugs came up thru the tool's spike, the top 1/2" or so was hard as rock and I assume frozen.

[Ntxw]

^ Permafrost? . Just give it a few days, the near 80 temps will work it out nicely! While we are warm and cozy here, parts of South Korea is digging out of what is the heaviest snow fall since a loooong time brrr what a winter 2010-2011 has been. Still hints are being shown for the return to a chillier pattern, nothing significant yet, but something to think about in the late Feb-Early March period.

South Korea snow from BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific

[Rgv20]

12z GFS showing close to 90 in the RGV by next Monday with the 12z Euro showing it by Sunday.

[BigB0882]

12z GFS showing close to 90 in the RGV by next Monday with the 12z Euro showing it by Sunday.

I appreciate the warmup and break from the brutal cold but I would still prefer summer to wait for May, at least!

[Rgv20]

^Me too but being from deep south texas I'm use to the summer temps

[iorange55]

^ Permafrost? . Just give it a few days, the near 80 temps will work it out nicely! While we are warm and cozy here, parts of South Korea is digging out of what is the heaviest snow fall since a loooong time brrr what a winter 2010-2011 has been. Still hints are being shown for the return to a chillier pattern, nothing significant yet, but something to think about in the late Feb-Early March period.

South Korea snow from BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific

Wow over a century! This winter has been crazy it's hard to imagine 2011-2012 will be worse but it might be!

[Ntxw]

The Nina appears to no longer be the prominence it once was. It is fading with signals of slight warming anomalies appearing in the 1+2 region. Lets see how fast this can progress. Food for thoughts regarding next winter.



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[cycloneye]

Check the latest CPC update about the fading La Nina at the ENSO Updates Thread

[CaptinCrunch]

Last week we was on avg 30 degrees below the norm just about every day, next week will be about 20 above avg each day. Crazy Texas weather...lol

I'm too lazy to go back and look for your initial call on the Winter weather, so I ask, how does what has happened compared to your original Halloween Winter call?

I was too busy this past fall to do a Halloween anology, but I did say it would be warm and dry for the first half, and cold and dry the second half, but I didn't expect it to be snowy, just cold for a few days then back to spring...lol

I'm as blown away with this winter as everyone else.

[Ntxw]

I was too busy this past fall to do a Halloween anology, but I did say it would be warm and dry for the first half, and cold and dry the second half, but I didn't expect it to be snowy, just cold for a few days then back to spring...lol

I'm as blown away with this winter as everyone else.

This winter has defied a lot of forecasts and busted many. It always found a way to get cold. Which gives us no reason to believe it won't continue to do the same right up until spring . GFS is generating some serious ridges in the pac and west coasts, that I have no explanation for...there's no Aleutian low or GOA low.

[downsouthman1]

I was too busy this past fall to do a Halloween anology, but I did say it would be warm and dry for the first half, and cold and dry the second half, but I didn't expect it to be snowy, just cold for a few days then back to spring...lol

I'm as blown away with this winter as everyone else.

This winter has defied a lot of forecasts and busted many. It always found a way to get cold. Which gives us no reason to believe it won't continue to do the same right up until spring . GFS is generating some serious ridges in the pac and west coasts, that I have no explanation for...there's no Aleutian low or GOA low.

The problem with this winter is that it has let me know that I need to go back to the drawing board. It would now appear to me that our weather is more impacted by AO/NAO than by ENSO/La Nina. I did not expect that, seeings how our weather normally comes from the Pacific. I'm not an expert in the field but it would seem that the colder than normal Pacific temps (La Nina) allowed colder air to come from the Arctic. That's why we were able to see much more of the Polar Vortex than usual. It usually stays way up in the Northern Canadian Territories, but this year it was able to push itself all the way down to the Great Lakes.

[Ntxw]

The problem with this winter is that it has let me know that I need to go back to the drawing board. It would now appear to me that our weather is more impacted by AO/NAO than by ENSO/La Nina. I did not expect that, seeings how our weather normally comes from the Pacific. I'm not an expert in the field but it would seem that the colder than normal Pacific temps (La Nina) allowed colder air to come from the Arctic. That's why we were able to see much more of the Polar Vortex than usual. It usually stays way up in the Northern Canadian Territories, but this year it was able to push itself all the way down to the Great Lakes.

The AO/NAO certainly needs to be studied more. However it wasn't a huge player in regards to Texas. It probably prevented us from torching in December (it wasn't too snowy or brutally cold here, mostly east coast). It is the PNA that is more the influence for Texas.

The string of cold snaps in February (as well as the snowstorm in NE Texas January 7-9th; it was the result a slightly +PNA also) was directly linked to the long duration +PNA which is inarguable. La Ninas aren't supposed to have long duration +PNA's. What caused this? Tropical forcing (MJO) being in favorable positions to shoot the jet stream north on the west coast and as a result dip way south in the middle of the country.

I too have heard the arctic/NW Canada/Alaska is generally colder in La Ninas but the pattern generally does not allow a hit of such magnitude to Texas. But this year it wasn't just North America, it has been cold throughout the northern Hemisphere.

[downsouthman1]

The problem with this winter is that it has let me know that I need to go back to the drawing board. It would now appear to me that our weather is more impacted by AO/NAO than by ENSO/La Nina. I did not expect that, seeings how our weather normally comes from the Pacific. I'm not an expert in the field but it would seem that the colder than normal Pacific temps (La Nina) allowed colder air to come from the Arctic. That's why we were able to see much more of the Polar Vortex than usual. It usually stays way up in the Northern Canadian Territories, but this year it was able to push itself all the way down to the Great Lakes.

The AO/NAO certainly needs to be studied more. However it wasn't a huge player in regards to Texas. It probably prevented us from torching in December (it wasn't too snowy or brutally cold here, mostly east coast). It is the PNA that is more the influence for Texas.

The string of cold snaps in February (as well as the snowstorm in NE Texas January 7-9th; it was the result a slightly +PNA also) was directly linked to the long duration +PNA which is inarguable. La Ninas aren't supposed to have long duration +PNA's. What caused this? Tropical forcing (MJO) being in favorable positions to shoot the jet stream north on the west coast and as a result dip way south in the middle of the country.

I too have heard the arctic/NW Canada/Alaska is generally colder in La Ninas but the pattern generally does not allow a hit of such magnitude to Texas. But this year it wasn't just North America, it has been cold throughout the northern Hemisphere.

Not only the Northern Hemisphere's cold, but the Southern Hemisphere (mainly Australia) has had extremely abnormal weather as well. From the torrential rains that flooded a large chunk of country over time to the crazy cyclones that have hit there. On a global scale, there are many theories to the cause, but I'm sure that massive volcanic eruptions, 1 in the Northern Hemi & 1 in the Southern have had to have had something to do with it.

Oh, and it's not over. We will probably continue to see abnormal weather for the foreseeable future. I've always said, & continue to say, that a new norm is currently being established.

Also, keep in mind our very dismal Atlantic Hurricane season for 2010.

[BigB0882]

Was the 2010 season dismal? I didn't think so. We just lucked out with the hurricanes and storms not striking the mainland or any land at all. That doesn't mean the hurricanes and storms didn't exist. I thought it was still one of the more active seasons or am I remembering completely wrong? I realize it didn't meet predictions but predictions are just that and are not rules that Mother Nature has to abide by.

[Portastorm]

I don't believe you can separate certain teleconnections and say some played a role and some didn't. They all had their roles to play, some bigger than others. I think the AO/NAO played a huge role along with the others. If the NAO wasn't negative, we would have had a persistent Southeast ridge much of the winter which would have precluded a southern storm track. And that retrograding negative NAO trough combined with a deeply negative AO helped plunge a lot of cold air due south into the central and southern Plains.

The PNA also played a big role with its positive phase and sharp West Coast ridging, helping to bring that polar air south.

Seem a lot of references also to minimal solar activity which may have played a role.

Methinks there's going to be a lot of learning going on with meteorologists after this season and it is clear that one cannot just take a Nina or Nino and broadbrush a seasonal forecast.

[downsouthman1]

I don't believe you can separate certain teleconnections and say some played a role and some didn't. They all had their roles to play, some bigger than others. I think the AO/NAO played a huge role along with the others. If the NAO wasn't negative, we would have had a persistent Southeast ridge much of the winter which would have precluded a southern storm track. And that retrograding negative NAO trough combined with a deeply negative AO helped plunge a lot of cold air due south into the central and southern Plains.

The PNA also played a big role with its positive phase and sharp West Coast ridging, helping to bring that polar air south.

Seem a lot of references also to minimal solar activity which may have played a role.

Methinks there's going to be a lot of learning going on with meteorologists after this season and it is clear that one cannot just take a Nina or Nino and broadbrush a seasonal forecast.

Agreed, which is making me wonder if now would not be a bad time for me to earn a degree in the field. I'm just kinda stuck right now. I don't know if what we're talking about is Meteorology or if there's something else larger than that making is dominance felt.

[austinrunner]

But this year it wasn't just North America, it has been cold throughout the northern Hemisphere.

I don't think that's true for the first two months of this meteorological winter.

December anomalies map:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_xU-YA8sYFmM/T ... 012-pg.gif

January anomalies map:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/ ... 1_1980.gif

[Ptarmigan]

^ Permafrost? . Just give it a few days, the near 80 temps will work it out nicely! While we are warm and cozy here, parts of South Korea is digging out of what is the heaviest snow fall since a loooong time brrr what a winter 2010-2011 has been. Still hints are being shown for the return to a chillier pattern, nothing significant yet, but something to think about in the late Feb-Early March period.

South Korea snow from BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific

Korean winters are notoriously cold and brutal. I can attest to that. Korea is also no stranger to wild weather from snow to typhoons.