#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 16, 2011 8:12 am
ZCZC 546
WTIO30 FMEE 160627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2011/02/16 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 62.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/62.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/02/17 06 UTC: 15.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2011/02/17 18 UTC: 15.8S/62.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2011/02/18 06 UTC: 16.6S/63.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2011/02/18 18 UTC: 17.5S/63.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/02/19 06 UTC: 18.1S/63.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 20/02/2011 06 UTC: 18.7S/62.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
120H: 21/02/2011 06 UTC: 19.3S/60.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5- Ci=2.0-
THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTING BY MODERATE EASTSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND HAS
WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW CLEARLY SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS LOCATED AT MORE THAN 90 NM FROM THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.IT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO PRODUCE
WINDS ABOVE THE N
EAR GALE THRESHOLD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS VERY SLOWLY
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE. INFLOW IS ONLY PRESENT
EQUATORWARD AND REMAINS WEAK, UNDER EASTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DEEPENING COULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO TAU72, WHEN THE
CENTER COME CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... BUT IN FACT NONE OF THE
AVAIBLE DYNAMICAL AIDS DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS SYSTEM.
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. PLEASE SEE DAILY
BULLETIN AWIO20 FMEE FOR FURTHER MONITORING OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN
0 likes