Texas Winter 2010-2011

[CaptinCrunch]

Last week we was on avg 30 degrees below the norm just about every day, next week will be about 20 above avg each day. Crazy Texas weather...lol

[vbhoutex]

Last week we was on avg 30 degrees below the norm just about every day, next week will be about 20 above avg each day. Crazy Texas weather...lol

I'm too lazy to go back and look for your initial call on the Winter weather, so I ask, how does what has happened compared to your original Halloween Winter call?

[Ntxw]

Hmm, those 'blips' of possible chill end of the month from the ECMWF may not be a mirage afterall through this warmth. Ensembles have been hinting at ridging in Alaska in the late period with the SJT waking up again. Should monitor this . Each run has shifted towards a shorter period of warmth.

0z ECMWF Ensembles:



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12z


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Notice the High below Alaska.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, Larry Cosgrove was mentioning this on his Facebook updates...hummm

[natlib]

Fire up the message board again! Winter still has a little life left after all! I still haven't gotten to make a snowman yet this year!

[Metalicwx220]

Hmm, those 'blips' of possible chill end of the month from the ECMWF may not be a mirage afterall through this warmth. Ensembles have been hinting at ridging in Alaska in the late period with the SJT waking up again. Should monitor this . Each run has shifted towards a shorter period of warmth.

0z ECMWF Ensembles:

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/9181/12235555.gif

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12z
http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/333/12zv.gif

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Notice the High below Alaska.

Are those type of lows in canada normal for that strength up there.

[Texas Snowman]

Yeah, Larry Cosgrove was mentioning this on his Facebook updates...hummm

Yeah, his Weather America column is fairly bullish on snow, ice, and cold east of the Rockies in early March.

IMO, I don't think winter is over in the southern Great Plains just yet.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... -10-p-m-ct

[Jarodm12]

well i would say, that we should prepare for a very active severe weather season here in texas. which will be a lot of fun but i hope no one gets hurt

We'll see. Last winter was quite cold on average. This winter has been colder but for shorter periods. There wasn't much of a severe weather season last year in Texas in big part because the western Gulf had been chilled so much during the winter that moisture was severely limited. This year, the western Gulf is even colder than last year. That may limit heat/moisture transfer from the Gulf to TX/OK this spring.

holy crap look at these sea surface temps in the western gulf 54 degrees! and below!!!

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/ ... 05.n19.jpg

[Ntxw]

Long range ECMWF continues to be quite interesting regarding winter. Ridging off both coasts, and no shortage of cold air with the PV returning south to the Hudson Bay. Curious to see how all of that plays out, there will STILL be so much cold air around the northern hemisphere, just gotta open them gates

Sinister brewing perhaps?



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[pwrdog]

Houston tied an all time record this morning for February..

Most days with temps dipping below 32 degrees with 12..

Ties a record set way back in the 1895 cold wave...... Now that's a record..

One more temp lower than 32 degree temp will break the all time record for February...

In modern times only 1978 comes close with 9 days..


An amazing cold wave for us.. and for many..

[Metalicwx220]

Dang look at the west!

[wxman57]

GFS and Euro do indicate another cold front arriving near the end of the month, but nothing out of the ordinary. Lows in the mid to upper 30s along the TX coast. Pattern developing may keep all the really cold air well to our north and east.

Here's a Houston meteogram from the 6Z GFS. Temps getting close to the red dashed line - my "warm" threshold!

[txagwxman]

GFS and Euro do indicate another cold front arriving near the end of the month, but nothing out of the ordinary. Lows in the mid to upper 30s along the TX coast. Pattern developing may keep all the really cold air well to our north and east.

Here's a Houston meteogram from the 6Z GFS. Temps getting close to the red dashed line - my "warm" threshold!

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iahgfs6zfeb13.gif

2m temp of 63F today, but my high in my backyard davis was 71F.

Those 2m temps from the GFS are such garbage. It has a problem mixing down to the surface on warm sunny days. GFS only mixed to 900 mb today, when clear it should have mixed to 850 mb.

[jerryh421]

So their isn't another chance for artic air or is?

[BigB0882]

I hope Houston can get another day below freezing before the month ends but it is doubtful! At least the record was tied!

[Metalicwx220]

to far out

[txagwxman]

So their isn't another chance for artic air or is?

I say we have another shot end of the month.

[wxman57]

GFS and Euro do indicate another cold front arriving near the end of the month, but nothing out of the ordinary. Lows in the mid to upper 30s along the TX coast. Pattern developing may keep all the really cold air well to our north and east.

Here's a Houston meteogram from the 6Z GFS. Temps getting close to the red dashed line - my "warm" threshold!

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iahgfs6zfeb13.gif

2m temp of 63F today, but my high in my backyard davis was 71F.

Those 2m temps from the GFS are such garbage. It has a problem mixing down to the surface on warm sunny days. GFS only mixed to 900 mb today, when clear it should have mixed to 850 mb.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .5000W.png

Yep, the high temps are going to be a bit low compared to actuals on those 2m raw temperature plots, particularly on sunny days like today.

[wxman57]

So their isn't another chance for artic air or is?

I say we have another shot end of the month.

Models do indicate a cold front in about 10 days, but it looks more like Pacific air and not very cold. With that giant long-wave trof over the west coast, we may not see any more Arctic air for quite a while. Hopefully, not until next winter.

[HockeyTx82]

Wow, this is quite a write-up for such a tranquil week................

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST MON FEB 14 2011/

00Z RAOB DATA INDICATED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A COMPACT BUT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THIS TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS TROUGH HAD SENT A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND AS OF 09Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TROUGH PUSHING THRU THE
METROPLEX IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AS OF 09Z THERE WERE STILL 1 MB/HR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...HOWEVER
THIS IS DOWN FROM 2 MB/HR PRESSURE RISES THAT WERE RECORDED ON
CENTRAL PLAINS SFC OBS AT 04Z LATE YESTERDAY EVENING...LIKELY
EVIDENCE THAT THE FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF CIRRUS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO.

TODAY THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST RUC AND 12 KM NAM INDICATE
THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE METROPLEX THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT. ONCE THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IT
BEHAVES MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT THAN A COLD FRONT AND BECOMES
ATTACHED TO A SFC LOW OVER FAR WESTERN TX. OUTSIDE OF CIRRUS
SPILLING INTO NORTH TX TODAY...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...SO THINK THAT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL LIKELY VEER OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE CWA SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS ATTACHED
TO THE SFC LOW NEAR MIDLAND THE FRONT WILL START TO RETREAT SLOWLY
NORTH BEHAVING MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT...AND AREA WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY BACKING AROUND TO THE EAST NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR AREA AIRPORTS IS THAT
OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OPERATIONS. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MIDLAND
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH TX TODAY WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHTER
THAN YESTERDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHICH SHOULD HELP
PREVENT ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FOR AREAS SOUTH AND ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
LOOKS IN STORE ALL ACROSS NORTH TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...REORIENTING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MORE OR LESS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX
THIS WILL MEAN A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DURING THE WEEK. H850 TO H700 FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PERSISTENT FLOW REGIME WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AND DRY MID
LEVEL AIRMASS OVER NORTH TX WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CWA. BENEATH THIS INVERSION PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING RELATIVELY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE NORTH
THRU NORTH TX THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRATUS BUILDING NORTH INTO NORTH TX EARLY EACH MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING OR SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON HRS EACH DAY. NORMALLY
THIS PROCESS HELPS TO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN THE GULF MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS VERY DRY
MID LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEPTH OF THE
GULF MOISTURE OVER NORTH TX THIS WEEK.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LVL GULF MOISTURE IN NORTH
TX...PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. PERSISTENT BUT WEAK
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THIS SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS HAS
OPERATIONAL MODELS SPITTING OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTH TX THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE SOMETIMES THIS IS AN INDICATOR OF DRIZZLE
THINK THAT SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OCCURS BENEATH THE
INVERSION EACH DAY THAT DRIZZLE WILL BE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER IF THE
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BEING UNDERESTIMATED DRIZZLE MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO FUTURE FORECASTS. EITHER WAY...AS LONG AS STRATUS
IS ABLE TO SCATTER OUT EACH AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THRU THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THRU NORTH TX FRIDAY MORNING. DUE THE THE ABOVE
DISCUSSION CONCERNING SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER NORTH TX...DO NOT
THINK THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG OR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 14/00Z GFS...WHICH
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...THE MOISTURE IS TOO
SHALLOW AND THE CAP TOO STRONG TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WOULD BE
MORE CONVINCED THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVED FURTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
EJECT FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE NORTH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON NORTH
TX. ASSUMING THE 00Z GFS VERIFIES THE PRIMARY FUNCTION OF THE
FRONT WILL BE TO COOL THRU A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 14/00Z ECMWF WAS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FRIDAY FRONT...HOWEVER IT TOO SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THRU THE PLAINS LATE ON THURSDAY...SO SIDED A BIT MORE WITH
THE GFS FOR NOW.

ASSUMING THAT THE FRONT PUSHES ALL THE WAY THRU NORTH TX ON FRIDAY
SUFFICIENT CAA OCCURS THRU THE LOWER PORTION OF THE WARM AND ARID
MID LEVEL AIRMASS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND ASSUMING MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE GFS STALLS
THE COLD FRONT OUT JUST SHY OF THE TX GULF COAST...WHICH DOES
ALLOW FOR RAPID MOISTURE RETURN TO NORTH TX BY SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. WITH THE CAP
GREATLY DIMINISHED IN STRENGTH MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY APPEARS
TO BE MUCH DEEPER ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
PERSISTENT WAA REGIME THAT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER NORTH TX FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO NOT THINK THAT THE RAINFALL WOULD AMOUNT
TO MUCH AS A FAIRLY STOUT CAP STILL LOOKS TO HOLD IN PLACE OVER
NORTH TX AROUND THE H700 LEVEL...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. IF THE H700 CAP IS WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED THEN CONFIDENCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA WOULD BE
INCREASED. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. WENT AHEAD WITH 20 POPS AGAIN ON
MONDAY AS THIS FRONT DOES SHOW UP ON BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.

CAVANAUGH