#12 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:51 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
114.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF BARROW ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INCREASING AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091747Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WHERE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS, IS BEING SHEARED. THE LLCC IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS, WHERE VWS WILL EASE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE DERIVED SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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