Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Metalicwx220]

weather.gov was wrong with the coastal carolina blizzard and didn't issue a wsw until the last second. Weather.com at least had snow in the forecast.

I don't keep track of weather.com elsewhere. They may very well be good for bigger markets to the east/north. As far as Texas goes, they stink. Last Friday they forecast 1-3 inches for Houston and flurries for Dallas. Dallas got 3-8 and Houston nothing.

Yeah lol I saw that. I was expecting to wake up and see a layer of snow in houston when they had live coverage. You win with that.

[newtotex]

When does FW think they will have enough consensus to issue a WSWarning for the area? It would have to be by tomorrow afternoon atleast right?

[cheezyWXguy]

When does FW think they will have enough consensus to issue a WSWarning for the area? It would have to be by tomorrow afternoon atleast right?

Well with the latest gfs dropping 5-6 inches from dfw north, it probably wont be long. If current model trends continue (excluding the nam...what a joke) then i think it will be issued by tomorrow morning. If not, then tomorrow afternoon for sure.

[funster]

They were pretty late in issuing with that last system. It seemed like several inches were on the ground before they issued a Winter Storm Warning.

[Ntxw]

Mr No (GFS) has initialized. Lets see what the rest of tonight's runs have in store. Fingers crossed for some snow/sleet down Tomball's way!

It's amazing how different the GFS and NAM can be. NAM has the large precip shield in SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma while GFS has it West of OKC and panhandles.

[wall_cloud]

When does FW think they will have enough consensus to issue a WSWarning for the area? It would have to be by tomorrow afternoon atleast right?

a lot of offices do not like to issue warnings in the 3rd period or beyond. I would anticipated something happening with the 4 AM forecast package (if conditions still warrant)

[iorange55]

GFS 00z is dropping 4-5 inches on us. It looks like.

[Kludge]

Doesn't look good for Dallas, or me either. It's showing less than a trace for me when models have been showing at least 2".

Weather channel is no good imo. Back in the old days it was better, but other than getting some live shots and on site broadcasting, I wouldn't bother using it. Last year while there was 10" on the ground, the local forecast on TWC had 1-2 inches storm total for the day lol.

I call it "The McWeather Show". It was going down hill in terms of accuracy and credibility even before NBC bought them and accelerated the downward spiral. Public Safety dispatch centers used to keep TWC on the TV monitors for real-time weather status. Not so much anymore.

I would think that there is a market for a back-to-basics cable weather channel that featured real meteorologists... especially during times of breaking weather events. It's time for another John Coleman to step up to the plate.

[Ntxw]

GFS 00z is dropping 4-5 inches on us. It looks like.

It's a tad less than 18z, 3-5 but that's cherry picking. Overall still looks the same.

[iorange55]

GFS 00z is dropping 4-5 inches on us. It looks like.

It's a tad less than 18z, 3-5 but that's cherry picking. Overall still looks the same.

Now we wait till tomorrow when the models show totals go up drastically but the NWS doesn't buy it. So they end up predicting 3-5 inches and we get a foot.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS 00z is dropping 4-5 inches on us. It looks like.

It's a tad less than 18z, 3-5 but that's cherry picking. Overall still looks the same.

What about further south? Anything for Tomball?

[HockeyTx82]

Meh, it's been to warm and it won't stick.

[katheria]

GFS 00z is dropping 4-5 inches on us. It looks like.

It's a tad less than 18z, 3-5 but that's cherry picking. Overall still looks the same.

Now we wait till tomorrow when the models show totals go up drastically but the NWS doesn't buy it. So they end up predicting 3-5 inches and we get a foot.

LOL.......

channel 8 says 2-4" maybe 5" in some isolated areas...

[jerryh421]

Another cold front on Wednesday will produce showers across southeast Texas. Temperatures will reach a high in the mid 50s before the front arrives and then fall during the day. We could be surprised with a few sleet pellets or snowflakes as the precipitation is coming to an end if the cold air aloft blows in faster than we expect.

From ABC13 weatherblog

[Ntxw]

Now we wait till tomorrow when the models show totals go up drastically but the NWS doesn't buy it. So they end up predicting 3-5 inches and we get a foot.

I like your optimism . It looks like the thing might form a trowel and the red river valley will be zoned in on it. Whoever sits under one of those bands that persists after the main show(you know what are!) could get very lucky!

[Kludge]

GFS 00z is dropping 4-5 inches on us. It looks like.

It's been consistent through many runs for the same conditions at 0Z on Thursday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_048m.gif

[orangeblood]

Within 30 hours of the onset of a winter storm, how can you have two US models be so different with their QPF ??? Take Little Rock for example, there is a difference of almost 0.50 inches between the QPF of the NAM and GFS. That is absurd!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

Is that 3-5 inches only snow? Or is sleet/ice included as well, because with nearly .5inches qpf falling, and almost all of it frozen, it seems like we'd accumulate closer to 4-7in of frozen precip around the denton/collin and northern dallas/tarrant counties.

[jerryh421]

Question.. Can it snow at 36 degrees? Ive seen it happen down here before. its almost the same set up like last year except they were actually forecasting it..

[orangeblood]

Canadian finally coming back around to a much more reasonable scenario for North Texas.