#19 Postby Crostorm » Sat Feb 05, 2011 7:29 pm
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
164.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 173.3W, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. SEVERAL FACTORS NOW INDICATE THE
DISTURBANCE IS TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM CORE CYCLONE. THE TROUGH
ALOFT THAT HAD BEEN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED NORTH. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DUE TO THE ACCLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. A 051600Z AMSU RADIAL HEIGHT
CROSS SECTION HINTS AT A DEVELOPING WARM CORE WITH A SMALL WARM
ANAMOLY CENTERED AT AROUND 40K FEET. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ALSO
SUGGESTS A TROPICAL OR WARM CORE SIGNATURE AS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINS
TO BAND NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE WELL-DEFINED WITH FLOW APPROACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AS IT WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM THE EAST. THE WESTERN
SECTORS OF THE LLCC ARE, LIKE YESTERDAY, MUCH WEAKER THAN THE
OTHERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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