SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[PTrackerLA]

NAM predicted temps on the text output have come up quite a bit. Wouldn't realize the predicted freezing rain amounts if it held true. With that being said, 1 or 2 degrees would make all the difference so the NWS is still wise to err on the side of caution.

[pwrdog]

Any reports from far SW La or far SE Texas..... Radar showing some decnt returns right now heading into Lake Charles?????

Anybody??


It looks like some moderate sleet to me..

[setxwxgurl]

Any reports from far SW La or far SE Texas..... Radar showing some decnt returns right now heading into Lake Charles?????

Anybody??


It looks like some moderate sleet to me..

Im in orange - as far east in texas as you can get - lol
I'm not seeing anything but some light sleet on occasion so far.

[pwrdog]

Any reports from far SW La or far SE Texas..... Radar showing some decnt returns right now heading into Lake Charles?????

Anybody??


It looks like some moderate sleet to me..

Im in orange - as far east in texas as you can get - lol
I'm not seeing anything but some light sleet on occasion so far.

That's something... I just noticed your earlier report..

The best returns are near sabine pass, cameron, hackberry and just se of lake charles..

All I can find is unknown precip falling from the weather stations in that area..


The dewpoints did go from 21 to 27 in orange in the last 30 minutes... And now up to 27 just south of lake charles...

Moistening up around those parts..

[PTrackerLA]

Temperature has dropped to 31 at the airport from 32 earlier and a weatherbug site nearby is at 27, light freezing rain reported throughout the city. SE of here they have highways closed due to ice on bridges and 20 wrecks reported in one area alone earlier this morning. Looks like we'll get a break for a while but more precipitation will certainly move in this afternoon. Precipitation dropped the temperature 3 degrees at the weatherbug site so I'm afraid we may stay at or below freezing through tonight.

[Jagno]

In in very southwest Lake Charles and so far we've had a pretty constant light shower/sleet mix. I'm constantly looking outside at the roadway but so far it's not frozen so I guess I'll have to go to work anyway. LOL

[PTrackerLA]

In in very southwest Lake Charles and so far we've had a pretty constant light shower/sleet mix. I'm constantly looking outside at the roadway but so far it's not frozen so I guess I'll have to go to work anyway. LOL

Roadways probably won't form ice due to temperatures being just below freezing but elevated roadways and bridges definitely can and will. St. Mary parish had alot of problems earlier this morning. Be careful out there. If precip sets in heavy this afternoon I will probably leave work early just to avoid any issues as they have been known to close the Vermilion river bridges here in Lafayette during winter precip events (and we have no salt!)

[Jagno]

In in very southwest Lake Charles and so far we've had a pretty constant light shower/sleet mix. I'm constantly looking outside at the roadway but so far it's not frozen so I guess I'll have to go to work anyway. LOL

Roadways probably won't form ice due to temperatures being just below freezing but elevated roadways and bridges definitely can and will. St. Mary parish had alot of problems earlier this morning. Be careful out there. If precip sets in heavy this afternoon I will probably leave work early just to avoid any issues as they have been known to close the Vermilion river bridges here in Lafayette during winter precip events (and we have no salt!)

I had two appts. early this morning and people were driving like they were trying to outrun a hurricane. On my way back the LA. State Police was posted at the foot of each bridge to slow dumb people down I guess. I'm glad I only work 2 miles exactly from my front door. I still have no desire to slip and slide to or from there. We have large ditches on each side.

[Jagno]

This Afternoon: Rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 30. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: Rain and sleet likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain before noon, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Hmmmm, I guess we just end up with the nasty, wet and bitterly cold without the benefit of the white stuff.

[JenBayles]

Is Lucy beginning to pull that football?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011/
ACARS SOUNDINGS FOR KIAH/KHOU SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET AS THE PRECIP
TYPE FOR THE HOUSTON AREA WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL WARM LAYERS
SHOWING UP. WE ALSO RECEIVED A RAOB FOR CLL WHICH SHOWS THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW -4C CLEARLY SHOWING SNOW AS THE TYPE.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TAKE A LONG TIME FOR
SATURATION TO OCCUR...WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND
TODAY AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND COULD BE A BIT
GENEROUS. HOWEVER...THE ONE THING DIFFERENTIATING THIS EVENT
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF ONLY
SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR...THE ROADS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BECOME
ICY AND HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE WARNING IN TACT. FOR FIRST PERIOD...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE AND ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

[PTrackerLA]

While I was out at lunch, temperature in the car read 29 and 1" icicles on the bottom of basically every roadway sign. My car also has some pretty big icicles hanging from the front of it. It's been 14 years since we've seen freezing rain in Lafayette but it's certainly here today.

[LAMOM]

While I was out at lunch, temperature in the car read 29 and 1" icicles on the bottom of basically every roadway sign. My car also has some pretty big icicles hanging from the front of it. It's been 14 years since we've seen freezing rain in Lafayette but it's certainly here today.

My daughter goes to UL, she called a few minutes ago telling us about the icicles and that they have canceled classes later this afternoon/evening till 1pm tomorrow. So, her and her roommate are headed home for the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

REDUCED THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN FL BUT KEPT
WRN AREA OVER TX/LA/SRN AR AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 600
MB. EVEN SO...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IS
FORECAST..RESULTING IN BURSTS OF THUNDERSLEET AND THUNDERSNOW GIVEN
COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..JEWELL.. 02/03/2011

[PTrackerLA]

Updated ice accumulations, now up to 1/2" over Lafayette. Up to a 1/4" all the way to the coast.

[vbhoutex]

I've gotten a couple of reports of snow/sleet from the Pasadena, TX BW8-225 area.Nothing here yet, but the temp has peaked at 31f and is on it's way back down(29.9f). That means the atmosphere is moistening up so I would still expect onset over most of the metro area during the rush hour time frame. Radar returns and visual of the clouds in my area seem to confirm the moistening. I've seen earlier reports from Alvin, Freeport of flurries also.

[JenBayles]

David - are you going to sleep through this event too?! I'm getting impatient myself and hope I can keep my eyes open long enough to see SOME kind of precip tonight.

[vbhoutex]

David - are you going to sleep through this event too?! I'm getting impatient myself and hope I can keep my eyes open long enough to see SOME kind of precip tonight.

SSSHHHHHH!!!!!! They will know what I did! I slept in this morning, so I should be good to go for this one.
Radar returns and continuing reports of sleet in the SE metro area indicate that we are a go for a significant winter weather event here in SE TX. It is hard to not be impatient, but patient we must be. It is driving me crazy. I am running outside every few minutes making sure I'm not missing anything. I'll post Jeff's latest update in a few minutes.

[Nederlander]

Now a steady rain with sleet in Beaumont (north of I-10)

[vbhoutex]

2 pm update from Jeff:

Getting numerous reports of sleet now over SE Harris County and light snow in Pasadena and this is shifting slowly NW. Should be crossing over the freezing line shortly. One report of accumulation on rooftops in the Clear Lake area.

Really watching the enhancement on radar over Wharton and Fort Bend Counties as this is heading for central Harris and may produce onset of sleet/snow over more of Harris and Fort Bend counties prior to 400pm…I have had no reports from this area yet, so best bet is most of this is not reaching the ground, but dbz is increasing in this area to near 15 with threshold being 20dbz in the sleet areas.

[setxwxgurl]

Steady light rain falling in orange. I keep glancing out the window for any sign of sleet or snow...nothing yet - hopefully we're getting there...who brought popcorn?