.SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
We still haven't gotten above freezing today. This is certainly rare in this area. We also had alot of folks that lost electricity this morning so I can only fear what will happen Thursday and Friday with ice and snow in the mix. Now I'm hearing rumor of another system next week. What affect will that have on us? I see all kinds of maps but not sure of what it snow or what is rain or ice. 
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CajunMama
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Re:
PTrackerLA wrote:Schools have been closed tomorrow in Lafayette parish. Still only forecast I can get out of the NWS is high of 38 and rain mixed with sleet tomorrow. Today's forecast is partly sunny with a high of 40. It's cloudy and 32
My daughter teaches at Edgar Martin and she sent me a text about the schools closing. I normally don't mention the "BUST" word but there is no way i think we're getting to 40 today. Oh the joys of forecasting winter in the south!
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southerngale
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srainhoutx
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
From Jeff Lindner HCFCD
***Winter Storm Watch issued for all of SE TX, all of the coastal bend, and S Texas***
***Potentially historic winter storm event shaping up for Texas***
Significant accumulations of ice now likely resulting in downed power lines and trees limbs across the coastal sections of TX with heavy snow across inland locations. Ice accumulations may approach 1/4th to ½ of an inch which is well into the local warning criteria for winter storm/ice storm watches/warnings. Widespread power disruptions/outages appear possible.
4.4 inch snowfall for KIAH in 1960 may be challenged with this event (this is the second highest snow total for Houston on record). The highest is 20 inches on Feb 14, 1895 and I think that record will stand!
Discussion:
Models are not handling the rapid advection of moisture into the region today as noted by the increasing cloud cover. Water vapor shows an impressive plume of Pacific moisture aimed right at the region and this will increase with time. Large scale upper low over continues to dig into the great basin and will begin the eject eastward Thursday. Appears models forecasting worst case QPF amounts are in fact going to be the correct route to follow and will bump all totals while adding heavy ice accumulations to parts of Harris, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Chambers, Calhoun, and Victoria counties.
Will attempt to resolve the P-type changes that we are going to face, but it is really a guessing game as to when P-types change and how this affects accumulations. Models have intensified the warm nose forecast to back toward the coast while keepings surface temperatures well below freezing which now brings the threat of heavy freezing rain/sleet to the SE 1/3rd of the area and snow/heavy snow elsewhere. Other item will be to onset precipitation between noon and 300pm Thursday and linger it until early afternoon Friday giving the area an extended period of falling precipitation. Impressive 50kt moisture advection above this cold dome is forecast on Thursday afternoon…so what does fall could be on the heavy side.
So here we go as my best shot right now on P-types and accumulations:
SE of a line from Alice to Victoria to Bay City to Angleton to downtown Houston to Liberty:
Freezing rain/sleet mix starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into Thursday night. Warm nose may deepen enough to remove sleet and keep all freezing rain. Friday morning colder air sweeps in a change over to snow. Ice accumulations of .10-.5 of an inch on all surface will likely produce downed trees and power lines. I am not sure the models have that warm nose correct, and if they do not if could be all snow for the coast.
SE of a line from Livingston to Columbus to San Antonio:
Sleet starting Thursday afternoon changing to snow. This area appears to lie in the most favorable lift and moisture area (roughly along US 59) for the most impressive accumulations. Expect all snow Thursday night and Friday. Meso scale bands will produce very heavy snowfall of 1-2” per hour. Will go with accumulations of sleet of less than 1 inch and snow fall accumulations of 3-5 inches area wide with isolated totals upwards of 6-8 inches under the meso bands.
For the rest of the area:
Snow will onset for the entire event. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely with isolated totals of 4-5 inches.
Actions:
HCTRA and TXDOT are applying anti-icing agent to area freeways/bridges and overpasses at this time across the entire region
Tracks are being equipped with spreaders and loaded with sand to spread on area freeways
Harris County EOC has moved to Level 3 activation
Residents should prepare today for potential widespread power outages, down tree limbs and power lines, and extremely dangerous travel conditions.
Hazards
Travel:
Conditions will rapidly go downhill with the onset of the precipitation. Very cold ground temperatures/road temperatures are already in place suggesting that what falls will freeze/accumulate on impact. Surface roads will be in just as bad of shape as bridges and overpasses given the very cold ground. Expect travel will be nearly impossible by Friday morning on all major freeways and surface streets. Sanding operations will only have modest success due to precipitation intensity and widespread nature of the event and road crews will likely be overwhelmed quickly.
Power/Vegetation:
Now that freezing rain/icing is becoming a larger threat along the coast significant impacts to trees and power line are possible. Weight of glazed ice on tree limbs and power lines may result in extensive damage and widespread power outages. Texas power grid is already under tremendous strain due to frozen natural gas supply lines and this will potentially add more strain and damage to the network. Power conservation is strongly encouraged to help maintain the stability of the entire power grid and ERCOT has ordered rotating blackouts to help reduce the strain on the system. Damage by ice to the actual power infrastructure is possible…and restoration will not be quick.
Aviation:
Big trouble on this aspect as aircraft will require extensive de-icing of control surfaces and runways ice/snow removal. Given the expected intensity of the falling precipitation and very cold surface temperatures, it will be hard for ground crews to keep up and expect significant delays and cancellations at both major Houston airports.
Will try and get the next update out by 430/500pm with updates on accumulations.
Winter Storm/Ice Storm Warnings will be required later tonight if not sooner.
***Winter Storm Watch issued for all of SE TX, all of the coastal bend, and S Texas***
***Potentially historic winter storm event shaping up for Texas***
Significant accumulations of ice now likely resulting in downed power lines and trees limbs across the coastal sections of TX with heavy snow across inland locations. Ice accumulations may approach 1/4th to ½ of an inch which is well into the local warning criteria for winter storm/ice storm watches/warnings. Widespread power disruptions/outages appear possible.
4.4 inch snowfall for KIAH in 1960 may be challenged with this event (this is the second highest snow total for Houston on record). The highest is 20 inches on Feb 14, 1895 and I think that record will stand!
Discussion:
Models are not handling the rapid advection of moisture into the region today as noted by the increasing cloud cover. Water vapor shows an impressive plume of Pacific moisture aimed right at the region and this will increase with time. Large scale upper low over continues to dig into the great basin and will begin the eject eastward Thursday. Appears models forecasting worst case QPF amounts are in fact going to be the correct route to follow and will bump all totals while adding heavy ice accumulations to parts of Harris, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Chambers, Calhoun, and Victoria counties.
Will attempt to resolve the P-type changes that we are going to face, but it is really a guessing game as to when P-types change and how this affects accumulations. Models have intensified the warm nose forecast to back toward the coast while keepings surface temperatures well below freezing which now brings the threat of heavy freezing rain/sleet to the SE 1/3rd of the area and snow/heavy snow elsewhere. Other item will be to onset precipitation between noon and 300pm Thursday and linger it until early afternoon Friday giving the area an extended period of falling precipitation. Impressive 50kt moisture advection above this cold dome is forecast on Thursday afternoon…so what does fall could be on the heavy side.
So here we go as my best shot right now on P-types and accumulations:
SE of a line from Alice to Victoria to Bay City to Angleton to downtown Houston to Liberty:
Freezing rain/sleet mix starting Thursday afternoon and continuing into Thursday night. Warm nose may deepen enough to remove sleet and keep all freezing rain. Friday morning colder air sweeps in a change over to snow. Ice accumulations of .10-.5 of an inch on all surface will likely produce downed trees and power lines. I am not sure the models have that warm nose correct, and if they do not if could be all snow for the coast.
SE of a line from Livingston to Columbus to San Antonio:
Sleet starting Thursday afternoon changing to snow. This area appears to lie in the most favorable lift and moisture area (roughly along US 59) for the most impressive accumulations. Expect all snow Thursday night and Friday. Meso scale bands will produce very heavy snowfall of 1-2” per hour. Will go with accumulations of sleet of less than 1 inch and snow fall accumulations of 3-5 inches area wide with isolated totals upwards of 6-8 inches under the meso bands.
For the rest of the area:
Snow will onset for the entire event. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely with isolated totals of 4-5 inches.
Actions:
HCTRA and TXDOT are applying anti-icing agent to area freeways/bridges and overpasses at this time across the entire region
Tracks are being equipped with spreaders and loaded with sand to spread on area freeways
Harris County EOC has moved to Level 3 activation
Residents should prepare today for potential widespread power outages, down tree limbs and power lines, and extremely dangerous travel conditions.
Hazards
Travel:
Conditions will rapidly go downhill with the onset of the precipitation. Very cold ground temperatures/road temperatures are already in place suggesting that what falls will freeze/accumulate on impact. Surface roads will be in just as bad of shape as bridges and overpasses given the very cold ground. Expect travel will be nearly impossible by Friday morning on all major freeways and surface streets. Sanding operations will only have modest success due to precipitation intensity and widespread nature of the event and road crews will likely be overwhelmed quickly.
Power/Vegetation:
Now that freezing rain/icing is becoming a larger threat along the coast significant impacts to trees and power line are possible. Weight of glazed ice on tree limbs and power lines may result in extensive damage and widespread power outages. Texas power grid is already under tremendous strain due to frozen natural gas supply lines and this will potentially add more strain and damage to the network. Power conservation is strongly encouraged to help maintain the stability of the entire power grid and ERCOT has ordered rotating blackouts to help reduce the strain on the system. Damage by ice to the actual power infrastructure is possible…and restoration will not be quick.
Aviation:
Big trouble on this aspect as aircraft will require extensive de-icing of control surfaces and runways ice/snow removal. Given the expected intensity of the falling precipitation and very cold surface temperatures, it will be hard for ground crews to keep up and expect significant delays and cancellations at both major Houston airports.
Will try and get the next update out by 430/500pm with updates on accumulations.
Winter Storm/Ice Storm Warnings will be required later tonight if not sooner.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
Nope no 40 degrees today still 32 and 3:20m PM not gonna happen
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CajunMama
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
BreinLa wrote:Nope no 40 degrees today still 32 and 3:20m PM not gonna happen
Nope, we aren't going to hit 40. I think y'all should close the office tomorrow too.
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PTrackerLA
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- Location: Lafayette, LA
Finally! Some news from our NWS. Winter storm watch just posted:
RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...OAKDALE...
VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...
ST. MARTINVILLE
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
LITTLE ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE
TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS BY THURSDAY EVENING...
ENDING BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND 1/4 INCH IS
POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...OAKDALE...
VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...
ST. MARTINVILLE
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
LITTLE ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE
TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS BY THURSDAY EVENING...
ENDING BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND 1/4 INCH IS
POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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southerngale
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PTrackerLA
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
SG, you're under a winter weather advisory. I assume that's because snow is less treacherous than freezing rain? Looks like 1/2" to and 1" progged for you now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more.
LAZ041-051-TXZ215-216-030615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.110204T0000Z-110204T1500Z/
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...CAMERON...
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE PELLETS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE TO MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
Too bad we're missing out on the snow in Lafayette, but at least we're getting some interesting winter weather (hopefully no major ice problems.) I'll take the snow event next week as a consolation prize
. Crazy winter!
LAZ041-051-TXZ215-216-030615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.110204T0000Z-110204T1500Z/
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...CAMERON...
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE PELLETS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE TO MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
Too bad we're missing out on the snow in Lafayette, but at least we're getting some interesting winter weather (hopefully no major ice problems.) I'll take the snow event next week as a consolation prize
. Crazy winter!
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southerngale
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
Finally!! 
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southerngale
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- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Re:
PTrackerLA wrote:SG, you're under a winter weather advisory. I assume that's because snow is less treacherous than freezing rain? Looks like 1/2" to and 1" progged for you now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more.
Actually, I'm a few miles west of Beaumont, along Hwy. 105, between Beaumont and Sour Lake and I am in the Winter Storm Watch. Not that the weather should be much different from where I am and 10 miles east at my sister's house in Beaumont. She often has more similar weather to what I get than what is forecast for actual Beaumont, if there's a difference. Or vice versa.
Anyway, it's looking more and more likely they'll SOMETHING frozen is going to fall!
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southerngale
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING...
.CARIBBEAN MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...THE INCOMING WARM
MOIST AIR WILL UPSLIDE OVER THE COLD CONTINENTAL AIR AT THE
SURFACE. PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO
THE UPSLIDING CARIBBEAN AIR. FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF A LAKE CHARLES TO ALEXANDRIA LINE...WHILE SNOW
AND ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE LINE.
LAZ027-030-TXZ180>182-201-030615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.A.0001.110204T0000Z-110204T1500Z/
VERNON-BEAUREGARD-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...DERIDDER...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE TO MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
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PTrackerLA
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- Location: Lafayette, LA
Pretty sure we'll be under an ice storm warning if this verifies. Here is my pinpoint forecast for tomorrow night:
Thursday Night: Freezing rain likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet. Low around 30. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday Night: Freezing rain likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet. Low around 30. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
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southerngale
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Hurricane
Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
THE FOLLOWING IS JUST A PERSONAL, AMATEUR FORECAST AND SHOULDN'T BE USED AS AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT.
I think we are going to see a similar scenario to the 2008 snow storm. However, I think this situation is MUCH, MUCH more dangerous because of the extremely low and consistent temperatures. I believe there will be an ice/snow mix Thursday/Friday. No school Friday.
I think we are going to see a similar scenario to the 2008 snow storm. However, I think this situation is MUCH, MUCH more dangerous because of the extremely low and consistent temperatures. I believe there will be an ice/snow mix Thursday/Friday. No school Friday.
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Hurricane
Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
Go ahead and share your opinion Greg. 
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Re: SE TX/SW LA Winter Wx-VERY COLD! POSS WINTER STORM THUR/FRI
Calcasieu parish finally decided to close the schools here as well. I just ran to my store to check my schedule and I've never seen so many people in there unless it was pre-hurricane. DH works at a local hospital and 4 children were already brought in with hyperthermia this morning. I did notice firetrucks more than normal today. People do some stupid things while trying to keep warm.
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Re:
PTrackerLA wrote:SG, you're under a winter weather advisory. I assume that's because snow is less treacherous than freezing rain? Looks like 1/2" to and 1" progged for you now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more.
LAZ041-051-TXZ215-216-030615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.110204T0000Z-110204T1500Z/
CALCASIEU-CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...CAMERON...
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
322 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE PELLETS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. THE MIXTURE WILL EVOLVE TO MAINLY SNOW BY THURSDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
Too bad we're missing out on the snow in Lafayette, but at least we're getting some interesting winter weather (hopefully no major ice problems.) I'll take the snow event next week as a consolation prize
What is this "snow event" for next week? I just don't see it.
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