SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[southerngale]

According to NWS, my low for tonight is forecast to be 24°
It's currently 22°

At 10pm, KFDM lowered the lows for tonight and predicted 20° for my area.


Current wind chill - 10° HOLY MOLY, IT'S FREAKING COLD!!!!

[Jagno]

We are at 28º with a wind chill of 17º. As long as the central heat is on, the toilet still flushes and the coffee pot works...............I can handle this. LOL

[southerngale]

We are at 28º with a wind chill of 17º. As long as the central heat is on, the toilet still flushes and the coffee pot works...............I can handle this. LOL

LOL - I hear ya! I've got a portable heater at my feet as well. It's attached to a long extension cord and goes everywhere with me.

[vbhoutex]

Now at 22.8f and still dropping. At the current rate we will easily make 16f-18f in the morning. Geez, just posting about it makes me shiver. It will be interesting to see if we do make it above freezing tomorrow. If we do I don't think it will be by much and not for very long. Thurs./Fri. is still looking interesting for us to say the least.

[LaBreeze]

What does it look like for me in Vermilion Parish? Just a cold rain I presume. Thanks in advance to any replies.

[ksstormhunter]

Just looking at some intial runs on the SmartModel for the Houston, TX area. Looking for sleet to snow beginning 04-Feb at 09Z, with snow accum of .5 to 1 inch of snow. I will upload Houston's run to view. Any other suggestion for cities to add or curious about let me know. Thx

http://smartwxmodel.net

[Roxy]

What's Jeff saying this morning? Can someone post it?

[PTrackerLA]

At 11:30am weatherbug station in town still reporting 25 degrees. Not sure if we'll even make it into the upper 30's today. Concerned about freezing rain here because as already stated, we're literally going to be walking a fine line between a cold 33-34 rain and a bonafied ice storm Thursday and Friday. If I can remember, and it's been 14 years, the 1997 ice storm here was not accurately predicted until the even started then suddenly we didn't rise above freezing for two days. About a 1/2" of ice in Lafayette but an inch or more in the Lake Charles area which was devastated. Going to be a very close call but temps got colder than forecast last night so I'm slightly concerned.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1124 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE TX...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIRMASS SETTLING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING WITH A 1045 MB HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE AREA. DESPITE
THE CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED VERY LITTLE SO FAR THIS
MORNING...STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF SE TX WILL
LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL AFTN...WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
RECONFIGURED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO JUST CONTINUE FROM NOW
THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.

DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM 18Z THURSDAY
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. TWO PRIMARY CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...NOW SHOWING THE ONSET OF
PRECIP ON THURSDAY AFTN. THE SECOND CHANGE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT
THAT IS PRESENT IN THE RECENT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SUGGESTS A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA.
CURRENT THINKING IS AN ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
PLACING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
MATAGORDA TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO RYE IN LIBERTY COUNTY. FOR THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZORIA COUNTY...THROUGH GALVESTON...
CHAMBERS...AND LIBERTY COUNTIES THIS IS LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY AN
ICE EVENT AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT INTENSIFIES WITH TIME. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SATISFY OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER
HEADLINES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ICE THREAT AREA WHERE PWS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH. HAVE CHOSEN TO START THE WATCH AT NOON ON THURSDAY
SINCE MODELS SHOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP THU AFTN AND UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON WHETHER TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THU
AFTN.

THE ONE THING THAT WILL DIFFERENTIATE THIS EVENT WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIP EVENTS WE SAW LAST YEAR IS THE HIGHER THREAT OF ICING
DEVELOPING ON THE ROADWAYS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...SO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL EASILY RESULT IN A
TEMPERATURE DROP AT THE SFC WHEN THE PRECIP BEINGS. SFC TEMPS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE EVENTS LAST YEAR...SO EVEN IF
QPF TOTALS ARE LIGHT THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICY AND
HAZARDOUS.

[angletontx2]

ive got a wintry mix...freezing rain and sleet...is it possible that snow could mix in with this?

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting Update from NWS New Orleans mentioning the potential for an ice even is increasing. Sounds like Baton Rouge and McComb may be in it for a while. I'm still seeing weatherbug stations nearby report 27-28 degree and the airport is officially 31 at noon. Should be well into the mid 30's by now...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 AM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.UPDATE...

WE WILL ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL ICING
EVENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A TRICKY FORECAST TODAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ICING EVENT
INCREASES. AFTER REVIEWING THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES
FOR THE TAF SITES...EXPECT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP AT
KBTR AND KMCB AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. INITIALLY...SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SLEET TO FALL AT THESE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL GRADAULLY LEAD TO SOME WARMING
OVER TIME WHICH LENDS TO A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS...A SLEET AND RAIN MIXTURE IS EXPECTED AROUND
12Z...AS MOISTURE FALLS INTO A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. AS THE DAY
PROCEEDS...LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL WARM THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN ALL RAIN. 32

[PTrackerLA]

And here it is: Baton Rouge to see .25" of freezing rain tonight through Thursday night with possibly more:

...WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED
WITH A COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION...IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LIGHT SLEET COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE
...RIVER PARISHES...AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. ACCUMULATION
OF SLEET IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
IMPACT TRAVEL. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...OVER THE
NORTHSHORE...BATON ROUGE METRO...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...A MIX
OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE
IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGER IMPACT FOR
THE BATON ROUGE METRO...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WINTER
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
POTENTIALLY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF THE EVENT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.

[BigB0882]

Looks like I am heading to the store! I wonder if they may be under doing QPF? .25 doesn't sound too bad but anything over that begins to get really worrisome with trees and power lines.

[CajunMama]

PT...you think baton rouge gets more winter precip (snow, ice & mix) than we do because of the atchafalaya basin to the west of baton rouge and we have the prairies of south louisiana to our west? I guess you would call it basin effect precip? LOL

[PTrackerLA]

Lol I think with the 2008 event Baton Rouge got more because they are typically slightly colder than we are. However with this situation temperatures are actually colder as you head west because of the brunt of the arctic airmass being in Texas. I'd expect to see at least .25" of ice in Lafayette, hopefully more is in the form of sleet (I know snow is basically out of the question). Lake Charles and points north of here I'd be worried about a significant ice storm and possibly losing power.

[lrak]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 021854 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1254 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GIVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT WILL
TAKE PLACE BEGINNING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE
NOT HANDLED THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALREADY IN THE REGION
AND GFS/SREF SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING
TO 0.75 INCH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...70H FLOW WILL
BACK TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGHER MOISTURE FEEDING THE SATURATED SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM
SURFACE TO AROUND 600 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUCH THAT PRECIP
WILL BEGINNING AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW . THEN EXPECT MAINLY
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MIXTURE BACK TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH EARLY TO GET THIS
INFORMATION TO THE PUBLIC TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.

my fishies may die.....

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What species of fish are in your pond Irak? I also have a couple of ponds and have lots of experience with cold weather and ponds (I've grown lotuses, tropical waterlilies as well as the hardies). And how deep is your pond?

[PTrackerLA]

Lake Charles NWS is killing me, they really haven't updated anything since 5am. No special weather statement or anything. Come on guys I'm dying to know what y'all have to say about our temperature still be at or below freezing and the impending freezing rain event.

[Jagno]

Lake Charles NWS is killing me, they really haven't updated anything since 5am. No special weather statement or anything. Come on guys I'm dying to know what y'all have to say about our temperature still be at or below freezing and the impending freezing rain event.

Sweetie, you'll be frozen solid and the generator running before Lake Charles tells you that it might detect some colder weather. LOL I've learned to listen to the pro's here on S2K and stay ahead of the game.

I'm trying to get ready for a Mardi Gras ball this Saturday. Our theme is "Gateway to the Orient" and I've gone to 5 florists and two garden centers to finally find two lucky bamboo plants for table centerpieces. Most said that they were not getting their shipments in due to the ice/snow storm. Lowe's and Home Depot have closed their garden centers down completely.

[BigB0882]

Lake Charles NWS is killing me, they really haven't updated anything since 5am. No special weather statement or anything. Come on guys I'm dying to know what y'all have to say about our temperature still be at or below freezing and the impending freezing rain event.

I'm still waiting to see if we will be under a winter weather watch or some kind of advisory. If this might begin overnight and into the morning, then issuing something now is important. Tonight at the latest. It wont do a bit of good if people get up and jump in their cars tomorrow with no clue that bridges may have icy spots. People down here don't think about checking the weather before leaving, it isn't usually a matter of safety. Issuing something in the morning is too late.