When Will Former TD9 Regenerate?

[southerngale]

When do you think former TD9 will regenerate? Comments would be great!!

[Rainband]

I think the sat says it all .....ominous. It looks like it has great outflow and I think there are two possibilities. One..if this doesn't have a llc..then a strong MLC won't be brushing the mountains..so it won't affect it much..Two if it does have a LLC by tonight.. after passing over Hispanolia... once it gets back over water..warm warm water..it will intensify. My locals never even mention systems that much. One..Dennis phillips..who is the king of downplaying..is really interested in this "System" But what do I know!!!! :o

[hurricanedude]

The Island of The DR and Haiti will kill this thing dead!!

[Portastorm]

Well, since I said "let's do a poll" I better vote!

I say Saturday. It's gonna take a little time for the MLC to spin down to the surface again. Probably Saturday evening.

Looks rather menacing on satellite, doesn't it?

[stormie_skies]

I'm thinking either very late Saturday or early Sunday...if he can hang on to some semblance of this form, I don't think regeneration should be a problem once hes out over water again. No matter the classification now - he looks good to my untrained eye! lol

[mf_dolphin]

I went with Monday. It could happen sooner but I think it's in for trouble with land first.

[Rainband]

I went with Monday. It could happen sooner but I think it's in for trouble with land first.

A MLC won't be affected by land

[mf_dolphin]

Land may interrupt some of the moisture flow feeding the system. One of the reasons I said Monday is that it has to get over water again (presuming it doesn't reform before then) and then work the mid-level low down to the surface

[southerngale]

Ok, who voted "We had a TD???"?

LOL!!

[capecodder]

The Island of The DR and Haiti will kill this thing dead!!

I think it was never a TD to begin with. I think Avila jumped the gun
on this one.There never was a llcc.


Richard

[Stormsfury]

The Island of The DR and Haiti will kill this thing dead!!

I think it was never a TD to begin with. I think Avila jumped the gun
on this one.There never was a llcc.


Richard

Well, personally I noticed there were two forecasters that wrote the first advisory and IMO, Avila really didn't want to upgrade but went the general consensus ... But I agree that NHC may have jumped a gun a bit.

SF

[ColdFront77]

It can be difficult to properly upgrade a system at times. Erika "bypassed" tropical depression status going right to a tropical storm from a tropical wave.

[Stormsfury]

It can be difficult to properly upgrade a system at times. Erika "bypassed" tropical depression status going right to a tropical storm from a tropical wave.

Erika was producing tropical storm force winds while still without a clear-cut LLC ... RECON flights were plentyful and NHC/RECON were excellent in regards to Erika, IMO.

SF

[ColdFront77]

Sure, NHC/RECON with Erika were excellent. I am referring to the upgrade from tropical wave to tropical storm status.

[Anonymous]

I think Sunday. Give it some time to rebuild itself once back over the water.

[capecodder]

The Island of The DR and Haiti will kill this thing dead!!

I think it was never a TD to begin with. I think Avila jumped the gun
on this one.There never was a llcc.


Richard

Well, personally I noticed there were two forecasters that wrote the first advisory and IMO, Avila really didn't want to upgrade but went the general consensus ... But I agree that NHC may have jumped a gun a bit.

SF

Not to split hairs, but I went back and checked the first Discussion, and it was by Avila, alone. I had already discarded the first advisory, but I can't imagine that Avila, as senior man, would be influenced by someone else, IMO. Just my thoughts.

[Stormsfury]

The Island of The DR and Haiti will kill this thing dead!!

I think it was never a TD to begin with. I think Avila jumped the gun
on this one.There never was a llcc.


Richard

Well, personally I noticed there were two forecasters that wrote the first advisory and IMO, Avila really didn't want to upgrade but went the general consensus ... But I agree that NHC may have jumped a gun a bit.

SF

Not to split hairs, but I went back and checked the first Discussion, and it was by Avila, alone. I had already discarded the first advisory, but I can't imagine that Avila, as senior man, would be influenced by someone else, IMO. Just my thoughts.

True. Good point and something I missed...I could have sworn that I saw another but that might have been on the Tropical Weather Discussion Product and not on the Tropical Depression Discussion itself. I haven't had much rest lately due to other circumstances. I checked the archives on #9 and the first one WAS written by Avila alone.

SF

[Colin]

I say Monday!

[OtherHD]

Regarding Avila, what I found interesting is that the day before developing, Avila had pretty much written the wave off. Then the next day, he was faced with writing the first advisory package, and now had to do the last advisory package. Poor guy...he probably wouldn't have upgraded at all and would've saved him the trouble.

And I also agree that this may not have been a TD in the first place.

[vbhoutex]

Sunday is my vote. LLCC or no LLCC-MLCC or no MLCC affected by the mountains(remember they are 10,000' high), this one will regen when it is NW of Hispaniola. Conditions are almost perfect in that area. Could actually be rapid intensification when it is about 100 mi. NW of Haiti, imo if it isn't too close to Cuba.