Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

Also, here is next weeks system on the GFS...I think I have all the morning updates

[Ivanhater]

12z Nam looking good

[bella_may]

12z Nam looking good

Too bad that will never hold up! Lol I've come to the conclusion to these snow maps are completely BOGUS!!

[TideJoe]

12z Nam looking good

Too bad that will never hold up! Lol I've come to the conclusion to these snow maps are completely BOGUS!!

When it comes to the NAM and predicting southern snow fall, then you're right..... it's pretty bogus.

[Stormcenter]

The nice thing about it is we'll know in a few days and not weeks if it (NAM snow fall prediction) was right or wrong.

[Ivanhater]

GFS has trended toward the Nam with wintry precip expanding further South and east so it has support.

[Ivanhater]

Speaking of the GFS joining the Nam...12z GFS out to 33 hours

[TideJoe]

Speaking of the GFS joining the Nam...12z GFS out to 33 hours

2 inches for me...... but I still don't believe it'll happen. The upper atmosphere is too warm.

[Stormcenter]

Now this (GFS run) I find interesting.

Anyway we all know history has proven that most "Winter Events" in the Deep South
are rarely ever predicted correctly by the models so until it actually happens will I believe
it. IMO Thanks for posting the graphics Ivanhater.

Speaking of the GFS joining the Nam...12z GFS out to 33 hours

[Ivanhater]

Well see how it works out. With the historic snow pack to our north and north west, the air will be slower to modify.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS 48 HOURS

[Ivanhater]

HPC getting on board with ICE accumulation

[Ivanhater]

A quick note on next weeks system. 12z GFS blasting the arctic front through faster with the energy lagging behind bringing more snow all the way to the coast

[northjaxpro]

A quick note on next weeks system. 12z GFS blasting the arctic front through faster with the energy lagging behind bringing more snow all the way to the coast

Yeah, I saw this run earlier today too Ivan. This does look interesting. Although the arctic air will moderate some, it still will be coming over a decent snowpack over the Plains and Midwest during the course of next week. Looks to be a chance for more freezes across the FL panhandle and North Florida region by this time next week. I am not sure yet regarding the models handling of another storm system next week affecting the Deep South. Hopefully, with the next few days upcoming the models will have a better consensus regarding this aspect of the long range.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just a quick update. Don't have time to look at models and all this morning. Will get to later after lunch. We are still at 28wind chill 18, our low was 24. Much colder than forecast. High today suppose to be in lower 40's. Don't think it will make ii as clouds are already moving in. Did hear how for my parish as of latest from the NWS that all mention of ice was taken out of our forecast. Just a cold rain tomorrow and tomorrow night with high in mid to upper 30's and low of 33. Go figure. Hopefulyy since temps were so far off last night that will transfer to them being off tomorrow thru friday. I can only hope. Don't want to see a crippling ice storm but would like to see something.

[BigB0882]

Just a quick update. Don't have time to look at models and all this morning. Will get to later after lunch. We are still at 28wind chill 18, our low was 24. Much colder than forecast. High today suppose to be in lower 40's. Don't think it will make ii as clouds are already moving in. Did hear how for my parish as of latest from the NWS that all mention of ice was taken out of our forecast. Just a cold rain tomorrow and tomorrow night with high in mid to upper 30's and low of 33. Go figure. Hopefulyy since temps were so far off last night that will transfer to them being off tomorrow thru friday. I can only hope. Don't want to see a crippling ice storm but would like to see something.

It looks like we might be the first ones to lose out. However, the scary part is the temps are supposed to be so close to freezing during the "rain." If they are calling for 33-34 degrees, all it takes is a degree or two drop and we have a big ice storm on our hands. I am not sure how accurate they are with temps 36 hours out. I am giving up hope on snow, that would take a miracle at this point. Damn the +NAO, it's been negative all winter and had to go positive just in time for this.

[Stormcenter]

The temps are definitely colder than anticipated throughout the
deep south late this morning. I believe the NWS thought there would be some warming thanks to sunshine but that hasn't been the case for the most part.
The clouds have hung in there and temps are below or around freezing from
Texas to LA.

[northjaxpro]

The temps are definitely colder than anticipated throughout the
deep south late this morning. I believe the NWS thought there would be some warming thanks to sunshine but that hasn't been the case for the most part.
The clouds have hung in there and temps are below or around freezing from
Texas to LA.

The models, which is typical in situations like this often does poorly assessing the depth and magnitude of the low level cold air advection of shallow arctic air masses like the one currently being experienced through the nation's heartland.

Plus, you add that impressive snow and ice pack across the Plains and Midwest, and you have colder temperatures currently impacting areas throughout the Lower MS Valley down to the MS Delta region.

I think a rather significant freezing rain event looks probable Thursday night into Friday for areas across SW Louisiana through Baton Rouge eastward into areas of Southern and South Central Mississippi and on into Alabama.

[Ivanhater]

Just take a look at the forecast for the Pensacola area Thursday night. 80 % chance of rain with a low of 34, that is cutting it close especially with the temps coming in colder than forecast today across the Deep South. All eyes will be glued tomorrow I'm sure

Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 34. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[northjaxpro]

Ivan, it wouldn't surprise at all that you see some sleet at the onset of the start of the precip (evaporative cooling effects) in your region Thursday evening into early Friday. I also would not be surprised to see icing on roads just north of the I-10 corridor from Southern MS to near Mobile as well.

You are right, temps forecasted for Mobile and Pensacola for early Friday morning are going to be very near the freezing mark. It is going to really be close indeed.